In 221, the new energy sector of China stock market performed brilliantly, and BYD, as one of the vehicle companies with the highest market value, saw its share price increase greatly. As of the writing date of this article (December 1, 221, the same below), BYD's A-share price is 31.42 yuan, an increase of 55.25% this year; If the lowest price of BYD A shares in 22 is 46.61 yuan, the share price will rise by 546.69% in less than two years. While the core performance indicators such as BYD's new energy vehicle sales and operating income are growing rapidly, BYD's profitability has not improved significantly. According to the data released by BYD, as of the third quarter of 221, BYD's total operating income in that year reached 145.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.25%; The net profit was 2.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.43%. While BYD's share price has risen sharply, its profit level has not improved significantly, which has aroused people's doubts about BYD's "increasing income without increasing profit" and whether its share price is overvalued. According to the industry and development stage of different business segments of BYD, this paper analyzes the core competitiveness, core business data and financial data prediction of each business segment, and discusses BYD's valuation model and valuation in 222. This paper holds that BYD should adopt the "segment valuation method" to evaluate different business segments. For new energy vehicles, power batteries and other businesses, they should be evaluated according to the market-to-sales ratio. Because the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the certainty of investing in BYD, rather than trying to prove the high flexibility or high return rate of investing in BYD, we should adopt a conservative method when estimating key indicators such as operating income and PS value. According to the above valuation principles and methods, under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions, the overall valuation of BYD in 222 will be 1,4 billion yuan, 1,299.2 billion yuan and 1,558.5 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding stock prices will be 357.27 yuan, 446.31 yuan and 535.38 yuan respectively. Compared with BYD's A-share price on the date of publication of this article, it is estimated that BYD's share price will rise by 18.53%, 48.7% and 77.62% respectively in the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic situations in 222. I. Basic knowledge of valuation model Before valuing BYD, we must understand that enterprises in different industries and different stages of development should adopt different valuation models. The following commonly used valuation methods are self-evident: 1. Asset-oriented enterprises (such as traditional manufacturing) mainly value net assets, supplemented by profit valuation. 2. Light-asset enterprises (such as service industry) are mainly based on profit valuation, supplemented by net asset valuation. 3. Internet companies take the number of users, clicks and market share as long-term considerations, and the market-to-sales ratio as the main consideration. 4. Emerging industries and high-tech enterprises should take market share as a long-term consideration and pay attention to market sales ratio. Obviously, not all enterprises can only be valued by profit (PE, that is, price-earnings ratio). On the contrary, if all enterprises must be valued according to profits, then the valuation is too simple. Buffett once said, "An investor only needs to learn two lessons: how to understand the market and how to value it." If the valuation is so simple, then stock trading is a very simple thing. Obviously, we all know that stock trading is not a very simple matter. Then, why don't some enterprises value it by profit, but by price-to-sales ratio? This is because the profit levels of emerging industries and high-tech enterprises are very different at different stages. Take the new energy automobile industry as an example. At present, most enterprises are in the embryonic stage or growth stage. At this stage, enterprises need to invest a lot of R&; D spend on basic research and development of new products, invest a lot of money to build factories and buy production equipment, establish marketing and service networks, and invest a lot of market expenses for market promotion. However, at this time, due to the low penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the poor product maturity and brand influence of enterprises, the sales revenue is still relatively small or still in the slow climbing stage. At this stage, on the one hand, various costs are high, on the other hand, the sales scale is relatively small, which will inevitably lead to lower profit margins and even losses. With the increase of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the product strength and brand influence of enterprises, the sales scale of head enterprises will increase rapidly, the marginal cost will gradually decrease with the development of scale, and then the profit rate will gradually increase. Therefore, for emerging industries and high-tech enterprises with rapid growth but unstable profits, the marketing rate is usually used for valuation. The curve of sales volume and profit in the enterprise life cycle is as follows (the red box indicates the current stage of BYD's new energy vehicles and other businesses, that is, the growth stage): Second, BYD's valuation model must analyze the key factors such as the industry and development stage of BYD's different business sectors before valuing BYD, and then decide the valuation model of different business sectors on this basis. According to the description in BYD's semi-annual report in 221, BYD's business includes automobile, semiconductor, mobile phone parts and assembly, rechargeable battery, photovoltaic and rail transit. Among them, the automobile business includes new energy passenger cars (including pure electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles), new energy commercial vehicles (including pure electric buses, pure electric commodity logistics vehicles, pure electric forklifts, pure electric intelligent dump trucks, etc. ) and traditional fuel vehicles. From the perspective of income composition, the income of automobiles, automobile-related products and other products accounts for 52%, rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics account for 8%, and mobile phone parts, assemblies and other products account for 4%. BYD has many business sectors, and there are obvious differences in industries and development stages of different sectors. For example, new energy vehicles and mobile phone assembly are completely different industries, and the current development stage is also different. First of all, the principle of "segment valuation method" should be established, that is, the different business segments of BYD should be valued separately, and the overall valuation of BYD should be obtained after the summary. According to BYD's different listed entities (including BYD Semiconductor) and business segments, we can split BYD's business into the following segments and value it according to different valuation methods: 1. The new energy passenger car business is valued according to the market-to-sales ratio; 2. The new energy commercial vehicle business is valued according to the marketing rate; 3. Traditional fuel vehicle business, with a valuation of (BYD is expected to quit this business soon); 4. Power battery and energy storage battery business are valued at the market sales rate; 5.Foday is a spare parts business with a valuation of (it is estimated that the current external supply business is small, and no relevant revenue data has been found yet); 6. BYD Electronics (mobile phone parts and assembly, electronic atomization products and other businesses. ) has been listed and is valued according to the predicted market value; 7. BYD Semiconductor (power semiconductor, intelligent control integrated circuit, intelligent sensor, photoelectric semiconductor, semiconductor manufacturing and service, etc.). ) It is planned to be listed on the Growth Enterprise Market and valued according to the predicted market value; 8. Rail transit, photovoltaic and other businesses are valued according to the estimated cumulative investment. Note: In item 6 above, BYD Electronics has been listed in Hong Kong stock market (stock code 285); The seventh BYD semiconductor mentioned above is planned to be listed on the GEM in the first half of 222; Other businesses belong to BYD head office or other subsidiaries. Three. BYD Valuation In 222, we valued BYD according to the following principles and methods: 1. Using the segment valuation method; 2. For the business valued by price-to-sales ratio (PS), based on a brief analysis of BYD's competitiveness and business development prospects, the PS value is predicted by combining the price-to-sales ratio of enterprises in the same industry and the same scale, and the valuation is calculated by combining the predicted business income in 222. 3. Because the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the certainty of investing in BYD, rather than trying to prove the high elasticity or high return rate of investing in BYD, we should adopt a conservative way to predict the PS value. In my opinion, the price-to-sales ratio valuation method is an indirect valuation method, because the ultimate value of an enterprise comes from its profitability, so when adopting the price-to-sales ratio valuation method, we should consider the future growth and profitability of the enterprise. In my opinion, the growth and profitability of innovative technology companies depend on the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises. Regarding the core competitiveness of BYD, I once wrote an article entitled "The Core Logic of Investing in BYD" on June 15th, 221. The core idea still applies to the current analysis of BYD's core competitiveness. If anything, it is that BYD's current competitiveness far exceeds my expectations when I wrote this article. The link to the above "core logic of investing in BYD" is as follows: Web page link. Use the following segment valuation method to separately value BYD's business segments in 222. (1) Valuation of new energy passenger car business 1.1 The core competitiveness of BYD's new energy passenger car business. According to the global sales data of new energy passenger cars released by CleanTechnica, BYD ranked second in the global statistical ranking of cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to October 221, second only to Tesla. As shown below: According to the monthly statistics in October 221, BYD topped the list and Tesla fell to the second place. As shown below: According to the above accumulated data in 221, BYD's new energy vehicle sales ranked second in the world; According to the monthly sales data in October 221, BYD's sales volume ranked first in the world. It is the language of the number god (meaning the most objective). The above sales figures fully reflect BYD's position and competitive advantage in the global new energy automobile industry. From the core technology, BYD's blade battery, motor and electronic control technology, as well as DMi platform and E platform 3., which are known as the cradle of the next generation of pure trams, have outstanding technical competitiveness and leading advantages. In terms of product strength, BYD passenger cars cover two series: pure electric and super hybrid. Models include cars, SUVs and other models, with prices ranging from 8, yuan to 3, yuan, covering more than 9% of the market demand. Judging from the actual market performance, many models are in short supply, and the sales volume is far ahead of all competitors except Tesla. Comprehensive analysis of product competitiveness, product coverage, production capacity, brand influence and other factors, I think BYD is likely to become the global new energy vehicle sales champion in 222. 1.2 BYD's new energy passenger car business revenue forecast in 222. According to the November 221 production and sales express published by BYD, from January to November 221, BYD * * * sold 5,922 new energy passenger cars, including 9,121 in November. It is estimated that BYD will sell 6, new energy passenger cars in 221, of which the sales volume is predicted to exceed 1, in December 221. It is estimated that BYD's new energy passenger car sales will exceed 1, in December 221. Considering the reasonable chain growth, it is estimated that BYD's sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.5 million in 222. According to the ASP (average selling price) of 15, yuan (the same as the ASP estimated value in 221), BYD's new energy passenger car revenue will reach 225 billion yuan in 222. Note: BYD announced in 221 that the sales target of new energy vehicles in 222 was 1.5 million, and then lowered the sales target to 1.2 million. Our analysis may be based on the consideration of the expected management, and the sales target of new energy vehicles is intentionally lowered. 1.3 Benchmarking enterprise current sales rate data. As BYD will basically quit the fuel vehicle business in 222 and become a pure new energy vehicle enterprise, this paper selects pure new energy vehicle enterprises Tesla, Weilai, Tucki and Ideality as benchmark enterprises. As of the date of writing, the market value, PB, PE and PS data of the above four enterprises are as follows: the simple average PS of the above four enterprises is: 14.93. 1.4 BYD new energy passenger car business valuation. Theoretically, BYD's current sales scale and profit level of new energy vehicles are weaker than Tesla's, but higher than Weilai, Tucki and Ideality. BYD's valuation level should be between Tesla and the other three, and the PS of 14.93 is more appropriate. However, because the PS of these enterprises may be seriously overestimated, this paper determines the PS according to three levels: pessimism, neutrality and optimism, and evaluates BYD's new energy passenger car business. Table below: (II) Valuation of new energy commercial vehicle business 2.1 Core competitiveness of BYD's new energy commercial vehicle business. BYD's new energy commercial vehicles include pure electric buses, pure electric commodity logistics vehicles, pure electric sanitation vehicles, pure electric forklifts, pure electric intelligent dump trucks, pure electric concrete mixers and pure electric tractors. According to BYD's 22 annual report, "The pure electric buses and pure electric taxis launched by the Group have been successfully operated in more than 3 cities in more than 5 countries and regions on 6 continents, bringing green public transportation solutions to cities such as Los Angeles, London, Amsterdam, Sydney, Hong Kong, Kyoto and Kuala Lumpur." BYD is one of the leading new energy commercial vehicle enterprises in the world, with comprehensive product layout and certain global operation capability. 2.2 BYD's new energy commercial vehicle business revenue forecast in 222. According to BYD's 22 annual report, BYD sold 6,651 commercial vehicles in 22, with a sales income of 6.973 billion yuan. In BYD's commercial vehicle sales in 22, 65 buses and 61 other commercial vehicles were sold. As shown in the following figure: BYD's commercial vehicle sales revenue in 22 is about 6.973 billion yuan, as shown in the following figure: Considering BYD's early layout and comprehensive product line in the field of new energy commercial vehicles, under the background of "carbon neutrality", the popularity of new energy vehicles will gradually expand from passenger cars to commercial vehicles, and the market of new energy commercial vehicles will also grow rapidly. It is predicted that BYD commercial vehicles will maintain a compound growth rate of 5% from 22 to 222. Based on this calculation, BYD's commercial vehicle sales revenue in 222 is expected to be: 69.73×15%×15% = 157 (1 million yuan) .2.3 Current sales rate data of benchmark enterprises. This paper chooses Yutong bus as a benchmark enterprise. Official website, Yutong Bus, said, "Yutong Bus is a listed company in China bus industry (SH.666), with R&; D, bus product manufacturing and sales as a whole. Its products mainly serve public transportation, passenger transportation, tourism, groups, school buses, special trips and other market segments. By the end of 22, Yutong has exported more than 7, buses and sold 14, new energy buses. Large and medium-sized buses have been selling well all over the world for many years. " As of the writing date of this article, the market value, PB, PE and PS data of Yutong Bus are as follows: Note: The market-to-sales ratio is converted from the market-to-sales ratio of 1.57 calculated from the sales revenue in the first three quarters to the annual market-to-sales ratio. 2.4 BYD's new energy commercial vehicle business valuation. In this paper, PS is determined according to three grades of pessimism, neutrality and optimism, and BYD's new energy commercial vehicle business is valued. Table below: (3) Valuation of traditional fuel vehicle business Since 221, BYD's fuel vehicle business has gradually shrunk. According to the November 221 production and sales express published by BYD, from January to November 221, BYD * * * sold 131,181 fuel vehicles, of which 7,121 were sold in November. In November 221, BYD's fuel vehicle sales accounted for 7.24% of the total vehicle sales of 98,34 vehicles in that month. Considering the rapid growth of BYD's new energy vehicle business, the monthly decline of BYD's fuel vehicle sales, and the substitution effect of BYD's DM and DMi models on fuel vehicles, it is expected that BYD will basically give up the fuel vehicle business in 222, so the valuation of BYD's fuel vehicle business in 222 is . (4) Power battery and storage