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Farewell to Panasonic, Tesla’s “cobalt-free battery” is doubtful

We were already champions before you came here.

This is a very famous Green formula in the NBA. In a verbal dispute, Green of the Warriors said such heart-wrenching words to Durant, who was still a teammate at the time. This sentence is difficult to refute. The "big truth" led Durant to finally choose to leave, and the five-star Warriors became the last team in the new season.

Of course, Durant's departure was a huge loss to the Warriors, but Green benefited from it and received a four-year, $100 million contract.

In NBA games, it is not uncommon to trash-talk each other to mess up the opponent's mentality, but it is relatively rare for Green to trash-talk his teammates.

However, in the new energy market, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has also done this.

He once publicly complained about Panasonic, Tesla’s close partner and the exclusive power battery supplier at the time, saying that due to Panasonic’s production capacity, the production of the Model 3 model was affected.

Faced with such rhetoric, Panasonic was not as indifferent as Durant, and finally left in despair. Its CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga bluntly stated that he "underestimated the risks associated with cooperating with Tesla and regretted investing in the Tesla Gigafactory."

As the demand for Model 3 continues to grow, the rift between the two has become deeper and deeper, and it is inevitable to part ways.

In the past year, Tesla has established cooperative relationships with LG and CATL, and is even planning to produce its own batteries; Panasonic also reached a cooperation with Toyota in February this year to jointly develop new batteries. First-generation battery car batteries and registered a joint venture.

Although the cooperation between the two continues, it is understood that Panasonic will end its joint production partnership with Tesla's "Gigafactory 2" solar cells in May this year, and plans to Before quitting completely.

As a result, the relationship between the two has dropped to a freezing point. Even though Panasonic will continue to produce power batteries specifically for Tesla's electric vehicles, they are nothing more than different bedfellows.

At the end of the movie "Let the Bullets Fly", Zhang Mazi asked Huang Silang, "Which one do you think is more important to me, money or you?" Huang Silang repeatedly felt that he was more important, but got Zhang Mazi. "Neither you nor money are important to me. Without you, it is very important to me." Huang Silang's stunned expression is worth pondering.

So which one is more important to Tesla, Panasonic or cobalt-free batteries? In fact, neither is important to Tesla. Being able to control costs is important.

The reason why Tesla alienates Panasonic is that Musk believes that Panasonic’s batteries are too expensive and it is better to develop and produce lithium batteries by itself. Tesla's goal is to drop the cost of lithium batteries per kilowatt to less than $100, making electric vehicles the same price as unsubsidized gasoline-powered vehicles.

According to a report published by a foreign professional energy agency, the average price of global vehicle lithium batteries in 2019 was US$156 per kilowatt-hour.

The same is true for Tesla’s previous announcement that it will use cobalt-free batteries. Ternary lithium batteries are extremely expensive because they use precious metals such as cobalt. Relevant data shows that the domestic price of cobalt per ton ranges from 276,000 yuan to 290,000 yuan.

This also results in the cost of ternary lithium batteries being much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The current cost of domestic ternary lithium batteries is around 0.85 yuan/Wh, while the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is around 0.65 About yuan/Wh.

There are different opinions on the situation of Tesla’s cobalt-free batteries. How will it achieve the decobaltization of batteries? I think there are several possibilities.

First, the strategy of making machines by machines.

According to reports, Tesla named its plan to manufacture lithium batteries the "Roadrunner Project." Tesla will first build a lithium battery pilot production line to test the new lithium battery technology developed internally and its impact on manufacturing. Improve equipment and adopt the strategy of "using machines to make machines" to save labor costs and achieve the purpose of reducing costs.

Moreover, Tesla will also increase the scale of battery production to achieve economies of scale and control battery costs.

Second, the opportunities brought by new technology of lithium iron phosphate.

Compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the advantage of ternary lithium batteries is energy density. However, the new CTP technology module-less battery pack released by CATL has greatly improved the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Provided technical support for Tesla’s “decobaltization” process.

Compared with traditional battery packs currently on the market, the volume utilization of CTP battery packs is increased by 15%-20%, the production efficiency is increased by 50%, and the energy density of the battery pack can reach more than 200Wh/kg.

Considering that Tesla is negotiating with CATL on the use of "cobalt-free batteries" in domestic electric vehicles, it is not possible for it to use CATL's CTP technology for module-less battery packs.

It is worth mentioning that BYD has also made breakthroughs in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries. It will launch a new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries in March - blade batteries, which can simultaneously increase battery energy density and Increase the heat dissipation area of ??the battery core.

In this way, not only can the cost be reduced, but the service life of the battery can also be extended. BYD Han EV will be equipped with a new blade battery, with a pure electric cruising range of more than 600 kilometers.

Third, dry battery technology + supercapacitor.

Just when most people in the industry believe that Tesla’s “de-cobaltization” is to use CATL’s lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with CTP technology, the official account of Tesla’s Shanghai factory stated, “Cobalt-free , does not mean it must be lithium iron phosphate." For a time, both cobalt and lithium iron phosphate concept stocks weakened.

As for Tesla’s self-developed “new battery”, the market is speculating more on the use of dry cell technology to achieve a supercapacitor model.

In May 2019, Tesla acquired the battery technology company Maxwell at a premium of 55%, focusing on its dry battery technology and supercapacitor technology.

Dry battery technology can increase the energy density of Tesla’s self-produced batteries, and supercapacitor technology can provide auxiliary effects for batteries in specific scenarios. The combination of the two may be the secret of Tesla’s “decobaltization” arms.

Tesla’s pursuit of cobalt-free is to reduce the cost of power batteries, thereby controlling the cost of the entire vehicle, and to achieve expansion in the new energy market by reducing the prices of its products.

However, it will take some time for Tesla to completely achieve "cobalt-free", and considering consumer acceptance, it may first use CATL CTP batteries in standard models, or it may Self-developed cobalt-free battery.

Tesla's domestic production is called the real-life version of "The Wolf Crying", which has subverted the structure of the new energy market and put everyone in the new car-making force at risk. In the field of power batteries, its influence is equally astonishing, and every move affects the nerves of the entire industry.

Whether Tesla’s cobalt-free batteries are truly “cobalt-free” or are they just a charade, we will find out when Tesla’s “Battery Investment Day” event in April is held.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.