Since 2001, the circulation of bulk liquor in the market has been significantly reduced, and the output of the liquor industry has tended to be concentrated in large-scale enterprises. The figures in recent years have become increasingly close to the true situation of the liquor market. . On the basis of the restorative growth of liquor production in 2005, the liquor industry continued to maintain a good growth momentum in the first half of 2006, with output reaching 1.931 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.41%. Among them, light-flavor liquor shows a trend of expanding market share, while strong-flavor liquor continues to maintain its No. 1 position in market share. The sales of high-end liquor are increasing rapidly year by year, accounting for an increasing proportion of liquor sales revenue year by year, and this growth pattern can still be maintained in the next few years.
Wuliangye
After adjustments in the first half of the year, the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 40% of the total, and the gross profit margin also maintained a quarter-by-quarter growth trend. Among them, the gross profit margin of high-end liquor increased from the first quarter of 2005 to It steadily improved from 60.38% to 71.8% in the first quarter of 2006.
On July 28, 2006, Wuliangye’s “45-degree plan”, which had been brewing for more than ten years, was officially launched. Among the main brands of high-end Wuliangye, there are only 39-degree, 52-degree and 68-degree products. This plan will Effectively improve Wuliangye's product level and compete with Moutai's 33-degree, 38-degree, 43-degree and 53-degree products in all aspects. Its marketing idea is to take this opportunity to "dominate the world" in the field of high-end liquor.
Recently, Wuliangye is also planning to raise prices for its high-end 68-degree product. Without considering the assumptions of Wuliangye's "45-degree plan", future price increases and overall listing, preliminary estimates of earnings per share from 2006 to 2008 are 0.47 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.78 yuan, giving a "wait-and-see" rating and paying close attention to Wuliangye The group’s subsequent development trends.
Moutai
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, Kweichow Moutai invested 1 billion yuan to expand production capacity by 10,000 tons. According to the company's annual report data, the annual production volume from 2002 to 2005 was approximately 70 million tons, 80 million tons, 110 million tons, and 120 million tons, which basically reached the upper limit of production capacity and required timely expansion of the upper limit of production capacity.
Combined with Kweichow Moutai’s huge inventory of high-quality liquor, as well as Moutai’s sales innovation and national policy adjustments in recent years, Moutai has achieved the following results: The development of new markets has achieved significant results. Sales have increased significantly in newly developed markets such as Guangxi and Yunnan. It is particularly worth mentioning that it has opened the market in Sichuan, the base camp of strong-flavor liquor; there are frequent good news in the group buying market. The government and the military are the main directions for Moutai's group buying. Now Moutai is targeting Fortune 500 companies and has successfully developed large enterprises such as Hongta Group and China Mobile as new group buying customers. It has also regarded group buying as the company's key direction in the next few years, creating a strong foundation for Moutai. Good sales growth in the next few years will lay a solid foundation; exports will further expand. Moutai has cooperated with the French Cognac House to enter the global duty-free shop system, and its future sales may reach 800 tons of export sales. These export products are blended in small batches and brewed in small batches, and their packaging and quality are in line with international standards for luxury goods. For Moutai Establishing an international famous liquor brand plays an important role; starting from April 1, 2006, the unified consumption tax for grain liquor and potato liquor will be 20%, a reduction of 5%, which will play a positive role in increasing Moutai's gross profit margin and profitability in the future. It is estimated that it can increase net profit by more than 4%.
According to the growth rate of Kweichow Moutai’s main business income of 20%-30% in the next five years, Kweichow Moutai will reach the milestone of annual sales of 10 billion in 2010. In these five years, sales profits The profit margin and gross profit margin will gradually increase in small steps. In 2010, Moutai's gross sales profit margin reached 85.5%, and its net sales profit margin reached 38%. Based on Moutai's current total share capital of 943.8 million, it reached an income of 4 yuan per share. Considering that after Moutai's sales reach 10 billion, there may be a long period of hesitation when the scale of international liquor companies reaches a landmark stage. It is predicted that Moutai's sales will grow slowly after reaching 10 billion. Condition.
In the long term, according to the PE positioning of 15 times the value of consumer stocks in the bear market, it is 60 yuan, and according to the PE positioning of 25 times the value of consumer stocks in the bull market, it is 100 yuan.
According to conservative calculations that Moutai will no longer raise prices and policies will not change, Moutai's earnings per share from 2006 to 2008 were 1.51 yuan, 1.89 yuan, and 2.61 yuan. The current stock price is lower than the PE of consumer value stocks in the bear market in the long term. Positioning and giving a "recommended" rating.
Laojiao
Before the 1990s, the high-end liquor market was dominated by Moutai, Fenjiu, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao. However, Luzhou Laojiao adopted the management strategy of "turning famous wines into famous wines" strategy and missed several great opportunities to raise prices to solidify the brand image. Since 2000, the company has adjusted its strategy and launched the high-end brand "Guojiao 1573", which has achieved significant market results. It began to increase sales in 2004 and reached a sales volume of 1,000 tons in 2005, which is lower than Guojiao's current production capacity limit of 4,000 tons. In the future, output will increase There is enough guarantee, which also lays a good foundation for Luzhou Laojiao's growth in the next five years.
The brewing of strong-flavor liquor has the characteristics of simultaneous growth of high, medium and low-end liquors. The development of high-end liquor will produce a large amount of low-grade liquor. An important supplement to the national consumption tax requires that the specific tax be calculated based on actual sales volume and shall not be calculated based on actual sales volume. The calculation of the converted sales volume of 65-proof wine dilutes the positive impact of the 5% reduction in proportional tax on Luzhou Laojiao to a certain extent.
In the liquor market, brands change frequently. Every relatively powerful winery will launch different high-end brands for operation. There is such an industry rule that it takes 3 years for a non-trademark brand with the same name to reach maturity. It will take 5-10 years to complete the growth period. After that, it depends on the business policy and whether the subsequent new brands can be supplemented in time, otherwise it will experience stagflation and recession in sales.
The operation of "Guojiao 1573" is very successful, and the market-oriented operation method is very effective. It is now the fifth year of the establishment of the brand, and it is also the beginning of the brand's harvest period. We can expect rapid growth in the next five years. 3 years, and then gradually slow down the growth rate. This characteristic will make the market volatility of Luzhou Laojiao more prominent, unlike Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu.
This year Luzhou Laojiao plans to issue no more than 30 million shares at a price of 12.22 yuan per share, and plans to grant incentive targets 24 million stock options. Each option can purchase 1 share. The exercise price It is 12.78 yuan, and the performance appraisal period is from 2006 to 2008. The assessment is conducted annually. The performance assessment indicators in 2006 are earnings per share of no less than 0.2 yuan, net profit in 2007 and 2008 must increase by 30% year-on-year, and return on net assets must be no less than 10%.
2006-11-21 21:43 Reply to Mao Wu Jianfen 0 fans 2nd floor
According to the previous analysis, Luzhou Laojiao not only achieved these goals, but exceeded them Accomplish these goals efficiently. Luzhou Laojiao's earnings per share are forecast to be 0.40 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.70 yuan from 2006 to 2008. The "recommended" rating is temporarily maintained, and it is relatively safe in the next three years.
Fenjiu
On July 27, 2006, Shanxi Fenjiu announced that it would raise the price of its Laobaifen series, the main source of profits, by an average of 15% because the sales of its flagship products are concentrated in Shanxi. and Henan and other places, it is a strong local brand, and the price increase will not affect sales. After the price increase, the price of Fenjiu is still affordable and there is still room for price increase. In the next few years, Fenjiu can continue to maintain a rapid year-on-year growth trend in its main business income and main business profits. Fenjiu's net profit has grown significantly faster than the previous two indicators in recent years. This is due to Fenjiu's low-investment, high growth model.
In 2005, 30% of the company's revenue came from the low-investment industrial and commercial alliance marketing model. The high growth of the Henan and Hebei markets was driven by the above model. Because of this, while the company's revenue has grown rapidly in recent years, its lower expense investment has continued to increase its EBIT rate.
Although the inventory turnover time of Fenjiu is significantly shorter than that of Kweichow Moutai, its sales intensity can be improved even better. This is because in terms of production technology: the light-flavor liquor is fermented twice in ground vats, which lasts for 56 months. days; Maotai-flavor liquor is fermented 7 times in stone cellars, which lasts 10 months; Luzhou-flavor liquor is fermented once in yellow mud pits, which lasts 45-60 days. In the future, as long as Fenjiu further strengthens its marketing efforts, it will be able to reach a new level in its growth rate.
Among all listed companies, Shanxi Fenjiu's gross profit margin is second only to Kweichow Moutai. Its current actual production capacity is 10,000 tons and its comprehensive production capacity is 20,000 tons. It mainly produces Fenjiu series and Zhuyeqing liquor. Zhuyeqing, as a premium health-care wine, is Fenjiu’s competitive advantage over other liquor manufacturers. Currently, Zhuyeqing’s sales volume is 2,000 tons, 50% of which comes from the Shanxi market.
Recently, Fenjiu Company has achieved remarkable results in operating Zhuyeqing in coastal areas such as Guangzhou and Zhejiang. This is because these areas have high recognition of health wine and strong consumption power. It is expected that the annual output of health wine will reach 3,000 tons in 2007. sales, generating revenue of 200 million yuan.
As for the Fenjiu series, on July 27, 2006, Shanxi Fenjiu announced that it would raise the price of the Laobaifen series, which is its main source of profit, by an average of 15%. Since the sales of its flagship products are concentrated in Shanxi and Henan, It is a strong local brand and the price increase will not affect sales. The traditional consumer markets of Fenjiu are in North China, Northeast China and the Central Plains. Now Shanxi Fenjiu adopts the principle of "resolutely safeguarding the local market of Shanxi, selectively expanding markets outside the province, and adhering to the principle of breaking through each area and not rushing to fully roll out the principle", which is conducive to Fenjiu's sales volume will steadily increase in the future.
Among all listed liquor companies, Shanxi Fenjiu Di’s main business tax accounted for the highest proportion of sales revenue at 22.34%. Because the actual tax rate is close to the nominal tax rate, this time it will benefit the most from the policy adjustment of the unified 20% consumption tax (reduced by 5%) for grain liquor and potato liquor on April 1, 2006, which can increase this year's earnings per share by approximately 0.08 yuan.
According to Shanxi Fenjiu maintaining a compound growth rate of 20% in the next five years to reflect many industry benefits, business strategies, market environment, price increase potential, sales volume improvement, and corporate governance, it is expected that Shanxi Fenjiu will maintain a compound growth rate of 20% from 2006 to 2008. Fenjiu's earnings per share are 0.61 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.21 yuan. After the current stock price has risen sharply in the short term, it needs a period of market adjustment to gain momentum, and then it will strengthen again, giving it a "recommended" rating.
Shuijingfang
Quanxing's famous brand "Shuijingfang" entered the liquor market in 2000 with a high profile with archaeological excavations as the brand support. It became the most expensive liquor at that time, and its sales were extremely hot. , according to industry rules, it takes 3 years for a non-trademark brand with the same name to reach maturity and 5-10 years to complete the growth stage. In 2005, Shuijingfang's sales fell short of market expectations. Sales volume was around 850 tons, which was still far from the upper limit of production capacity of 2,100 tons.
After the sales bottleneck occurred in Shuijingfang, Shuijingfang considered that the way out for operating a single non-trademark brand was very limited, and decided to continue to increase market development efforts for its own trademark brand "Quanxing". Whether Quanxing will succeed or not It will largely influence the future development prospects of Shuijingfang.
In order to improve the performance of listed companies, Shuijingfang also plans to develop real estate projects in cooperation with group companies through the operation of its own land. As high-end liquor sales encounter obstacles, subsequent brand development remains to be seen, and real estate projects still need to be confirmed, Shuijingfang's earnings per share from 2006 to 2008 were 0.28 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.43 yuan, and a "wait and see" rating was given. This This is because its performance includes real estate income of approximately 0.3 yuan per share in the next three years.
In summary, my country’s liquor sales in the first half of the year showed the following characteristics: the market share of small distilleries has further decreased, and industry resources and market shares will continue to be concentrated in advantageous liquor companies, giving them a stronger say in pricing. . This is because today, with the rapid economic development, people's concept of brand consumption determines that when consuming liquor, they first choose familiar brands or well-known brands; the sales of high-end liquor are increasing rapidly year by year, and the proportion of liquor sales revenue is increasing year by year. This is because people generally accept the concept of "drink less, drink good wine". In view of the reality that liquor consumption accounts for a lower proportion of income, people will choose more medium and high-end liquor for daily banquets; although alcohol substitutes Posing threats, such as red wine, rice wine, foreign wine, etc., generally speaking, they still cannot completely replace white wine. The taste and feel of liquor are unmatched by other alcoholic substitutes. Internationally, the liquor industry is highly concentrated and consumption is stable, with major global brands concentrated in the hands of a handful of groups.
This is just an analysis of white wine. Red wine is too messy to give you statistics {I guess it should be Changyu dry red}.
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