Geely Automobile registered the "changeable" trademark and began to lay out its own new energy vehicle and electricity business. Three months later, before the guidance of the two countries landed, Geely's new energy vehicle and electricity business was already in progress.
On September 16, 2020, Geely Science and Technology Group released the power exchange mode, which can exchange power for vehicles within 2 minutes at the earliest; June 65438+1October 65438+August 2020, Geely Power Station completed the layout of Chongqing+Jinan; At the end of 2020 1 1, Geely Technology and Chongqing Expressway completed the signing of the agreement and laid out the electricity exchange; 202165438+1October 26th, Geely and Lifan New Company were unveiled, and Lifan Technology produced electric replacement vehicles for Geely Technology; At the end of May, 20021,Yibin Yinglun Automobile Co., Ltd. was established, and Geely Holding indirectly held all its shares, and continued to increase the power exchange business. Geely's acquisition of Lifan, which I didn't understand before, now seems to be the basis of the layout in the southwest.
That is to say, from 20 17, the research and development of power exchange technology, to 2020, the registration of trademarks and the release of intelligent power exchange stations, and then to the establishment of 202 1 new company, Geely has actually "quietly" promoted the commercialization of power exchange 1 year.
Good fitting policy, big market prospect, own execution ability/capital reserve/brand reputation. Obviously, Geely has advantages for its own development in the field of power exchange, and can even affect the development of the industry.
It is necessary to ask and answer a few questions to analyze the challenges that Geely and other car companies who want to enter the power exchange industry will face in the field of power exchange.
First of all, in China's automobile industry, why is the change of electricity now recognized by relevant policies?
The essential reason lies in the lack of hardware basic ability, which is at a great disadvantage in front of the charging model. The lack of hardware capabilities includes the ability to solve the high cost of large-scale promotion of power exchange stations and the ability to solve the security risks related to frequent plugging and unplugging of batteries. The whole energy storage industry is in its infancy, and it is impossible to achieve balance of payments. The battery structure/material selection/technical standards of various automobile brands/battery companies are different.
Expensive, not only in the battery cost, the basic cost of changing power stations, but also in the operating cost. Take Weilai's latest second-generation power station as an example. The cost of a single power station is 6.5438+0.5 million yuan, and the maximum power station capacity is 365.438+0.2 times/day. At the same time, there are higher overall operating costs/personnel costs/other supporting costs. According to the original charging standard of 180 yuan/time for Weilai automobile, the second generation power station evolved to 202 1. With higher power exchange capacity, according to the theoretical maximum amount, the daily income is 56,000 yuan. Like the automobile industry, it belongs to a long-term industry with large investment and slow return.
At present, the pattern of the whole new energy vehicle power exchange industry is that almost all of them go to class B businesses, such as logistics vehicles, taxis, operating models, special cars and so on. In essence, only Weilai is promoting to Class C merchants.
Secondly, is it good or bad for users to exchange electricity for new energy vehicles?
When it comes to users, the general reaction at present is that they need to adapt more and spit more. Because, at present, the vehicles that use power exchange are mainly operating vehicles, and passenger vehicles such as buses/CMB are acceptable because of their relatively low frequency of power exchange; The frequency of power exchange of logistics vehicles is high, but because most of the expenses are paid by the company, the acceptance is acceptable; Operating vehicles such as taxis have expressed strong opinions. The new energy taxi currently used in Beijing is Beiqi New Energy Brand. After calculating the cost, the driver found that although the speed of replenishing energy caught up with that of traditional fuel taxis, the final cost was even higher than that of fuel taxis (because there was no fuel subsidy), and it could not solve the mileage anxiety problem of medium and long-distance services.
Private users (taking Weilai users as an example) have a high acceptance of power exchange, because there are many ways to supplement the energy of vehicles, such as slow/fast charging at home, tripartite charging piles, Weilai cooperative tripartite charging piles, power exchange, ox carts, etc. According to the deployment of the power exchange station around the residence or workplace, the deployment can be relatively reasonable.
Up to now, the power exchange industry of new energy vehicles has grown at a good speed. From the initial attempt/cultivation/burning money, it gradually began to be accepted by more private consumers. However, the whole industry is still a long way from maturity. The core problem faced by operating vehicles is that the high price of power exchange dilutes the real income, while the problems faced by operating vehicles and private vehicles are the number, scope and layout of power exchange stations.
Solving the inconvenience of use, reducing the cost of power exchange, increasing the layout of power exchange stations, giving good operating mode basis and rules for power exchange stations and giving reasonable management mode are the pain points that can be seen in the current global new energy vehicle power exchange mode.
Analyzing Geely's current chess game from these angles, it has basically achieved the advantage of preemptive strike.
First, the basic power exchange ability. According to the latest power exchange technology released by Geely in September, 2020, a vehicle with a compatible axle of 2700-3 100mm was designed, with 39 batteries in two compartments, and the time from the start of power exchange to the end of power exchange was less than 2 minutes.
Technically speaking, Geely's power exchange station has many advantages and few disadvantages. In terms of power exchange speed, at present, the power exchange speed of Beiqi New Energy Version 4.0 is about 150 seconds, and the speed of Weilai is similar to that of Weilai, but the technical mode of Weilai Second Generation Power Exchange Station is better and does not need to be lifted. Dual-warehouse workstations and 39 batteries are also normal in quantity. The disadvantage is that in the compatibility part, it can be clearly seen that Geely is currently preparing to match operating vehicles, not social private cars, and there are some shortcomings in unattended. During the long-term test of Weilai ES6 power station during the Spring Festival this year, a bug appeared in the power station. The power exchange is done by skilled workers manually, and the speed of power exchange is not slow in essence. Unattended, it is likely to make the efficiency of the power station worse and unable to cope with emergencies.
From the point of order of magnitude and scope, Geely's current power exchange planning goal is very high, and once completed, it will have an advantage in coverage/convenience. In 2020, the number of power stations signed with Geely exceeded 65,438+0,000. In 2025, Geely's planning goal is 5,000 vehicles, which is different from the industry in cooperation with the government's high-speed departments. At present, in southwest China, the original Lifan automobile production capacity is Geely's power exchange technology, and Geely and Chongqing Expressway cooperate to arrange power exchange stations.
In other words, after completing the initial deployment in Southwest China, Geely will have relevant operational experience, solve logic, find relevant problems, and complete the deployment of its own operating vehicles. At that time, Weilai Automobile was the only company of the same size in the market, and the planned number was about 5,000.
But the difference is that the business model of Weilai Automobile is more targeted at the C end and the consumer end. At present, Geely's business model is based on B-side. After the B-end matures, it gradually attracts and satisfies the C-end users.
At present, Geely's power exchange business has taken shape. With heavy investment, I believe that the time when it really works will be closer and closer. Whether Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, Changan, Great Wall and other car companies will choose to keep up, at present, the answer is biased towards no.
The power exchange technology needs to be considered from the basic design dimension of the vehicle. Volkswagen did not reveal its willingness to change power in the promotion of ID series. At the same time, it must keep up with the global rhythm and obtain standardized batteries in China. On the other hand, several Japanese companies have different technology strategies, such as Toyota's Hybrid +PHEV, Honda's i-MMD+PHEV, and Nissan's e-POWER.
And China brand, everyone's choice is estimated to be very different. At present, Chang 'an's new energy business is relatively backward, and mainstream products have not yet been launched. Great Wall Motor chooses hydrogen energy as one of its corporate strategies while maintaining its mainstream products.
In the end, it can be predicted that in 2025, when Geely and Weilai both achieve their goals, the power exchange market will really mature initially. At that time, there will be a new conclusion, "Who is better to charge or mix?"