Low interest rates are expected to promote the "anchor change" of mortgage interest rates

Shanghai citizen Mr. Wang recently completed relevant operations through the mobile banking app of a state-owned bank, changing the mortgage interest rate from the previous fixed interest rate to LPR pricing. The entire conversion process only took a few minutes.

Mr. Wang said that he bought a house in 2014 with a total loan amount of 850,000. At that time, the loan was calculated based on the benchmark interest rate of 4.9%, and the monthly repayment was more than 4,500 yuan. "The bank informed that if it wants to change to LPR pricing, it must be completed before August 31." Mr. Wang said that after understanding the relevant policies, he believed that in the long term, pricing will guide interest rates downward. "Compared to a fixed interest rate, if I change to LPR floating pricing, the calculation method for my mortgage interest rate will become LPR 0.1%. In the long run, LPR will fall, and buyers should not suffer a loss, so I switch to LPR pricing. "

Since August last year, the People's Bank of China has issued LPR 12 times in a row, and the LPR interest rate for personal housing loans over 5 years has dropped from 4.85% in the first period to the current 4.65%. Since this year alone, the 5-year LPR has been lowered twice, with a cumulative decrease of 15 basis points compared with the end of last year.

According to 360 pairs of mortgage interest rate monitoring data from 674 bank branches in 41 key cities across the country, in July (the data monitoring period is from June 20, 2020 to July 17, 2020), the number of first-time home buyers nationwide The average loan interest rate is 5.26%, a decrease of 2BP since last month; the average second home loan interest rate is 5.58%, both a decrease of 2BP from the previous month.

Rong360 monitoring data shows that the national first-home loan interest rate dropped by 28BP from the end of last year, and the second-home loan interest rate dropped by 27BP from the end of last year, both far exceeding the decline of the 5-year LPR.

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that on July 20, 2020, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) for one-year terms was 3.85%, and for five-year terms and above, it was 4.65%, which is consistent with the previous period. The month was flat.

The low interest rate environment will be conducive to real estate companies destocking in the second half of the year.

Although the latest LPR of more than 5 years has not changed, home buyers are not too worried. Ms. Fang, a citizen who sells real estate in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, said: "I want to take a loan for 30 years, and I won't have too many psychological fluctuations just because of the situation in a few months. I still have to look at the long-term and long-term cost-effectiveness."

Since the second half of the year, cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan, and Shenzhen have begun to tighten property market control policies, especially Shenzhen’s “715 New Deal”, which is the strictest property market control policy in Shenzhen. On July 15, eight departments including the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Shenzhen's Real Estate Market", which covers purchase restrictions, credit policies, tax policies, luxury property identification, hot real estate sales, and Internet It covers eight aspects including signing management, second-hand housing transaction information disclosure, and handling of property market violations.

58.com and Anjuke recently released the "July National Housing Index Report", which shows that in July, the average online price of new homes in 67 key monitored cities across the country was 16,458 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.04% , among which the average online price of new homes in 36 cities increased month-on-month. The average listing price of second-hand houses in 67 cities monitored nationwide was 15,597 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.54% month-on-month, and the average listing price of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased month-on-month. Compared with the previous month, in July, the house-hunting craze in the real estate market rebounded, with little overall fluctuation; the homebuyer confidence index increased by 3.1% month-on-month.

Li Wanfu, an analyst at Rong360 Big Data Research Institute, said that "real estate speculation is not allowed" and "consumer loan funds are not allowed to flow into the property market in violation of regulations" have been frequently mentioned by regulators recently. In addition, some time ago, the national mortgage interest rate has dropped by more than 20 BP this year, far exceeding the decline of LPR. Local market interest rate pricing self-regulatory organizations are very likely to be more cautious in the rise and fall of mortgage interest rates. In the future, mortgage interest rates may fluctuate slightly on a stable basis.

Zhang Bo, president of the SA Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute branch

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that judging from the overall low interest rate data, it still shows that in the second half of the year Low interest rates oriented. From the actual situation, there are several points worth noting. The first half of the year and the second half of the year are still important stages for real estate companies to actively destock, and such destocking still requires the help of such low-interest policies. Secondly, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has clearly emphasized the control of loan funds before.

When digesting this LPR interest rate policy, it is recommended to further strengthen the control of funds, especially to prevent various types of non-real estate loan funds from entering the real estate market. Related Q&A: What are the low-interest loans?

Bank loans have the lowest interest rates among all loans. Therefore, if users want a loan and meet the bank's loan conditions, it is recommended to apply for a bank loan first. Among bank loans, low-interest loan products include provident fund first-home loans. Secondly, there are loans from consumer finance companies. The interest rates of such licensed financial institutions are higher than those of banks, but lower than those of online loan products. Finally, there are online loan products with annual interest rates in the range of 24%. Among similar products, they have relatively low interest rates.

If the annual interest rate is higher than 24%, it does not fall into the low-interest range. Related Q&A: Why can’t many people get low-interest bank loans?

Banks have low-interest loans, and there are also subsidized loans that do not require interest (special subsidies for fiscal funds, and banks charge interest normally). It is true that ordinary people cannot get loans.

Excluding the subsidized business loans subsidized by fiscal policy, the low-interest loans mentioned in the question should be loans issued at base interest rates or with a low floating rate.

Some people may have questions: Does the bank stop making money when the base interest rate is issued? I had doubts about this at first, until I saw a bank do this:

This is a customer I met when I was doing loans before. The real estate business is not large in scale, and the capital transaction is about 10 million.

This customer received by a colleague took out two shops in Hefei as mortgage. The appraisal was 5 million, the loan was 3 million, and the interest rate was about 7.5%. It has been approved by the loan review committee and is in the stage of preparing to sign the contract and apply for the mortgage. Give up the loan.

After asking around, I learned that a large commercial bank in the same area had given him a loan of 5 million yuan at a base interest rate. It can be said that he almost made no money for this loan.

Some people say that if you don’t make money, what are you doing?

1. Complete loan phase tasks

This is not difficult to understand, it is similar to doing business with small profits but quick turnover. As long as you complete the task, everything else is easy.

2. The need to reduce the non-performing ratio

Reducing the non-performing ratio is also one of the assessment tasks of the bank's credit department. When this loan is issued, the denominator increases, and the non-performing rate still decreases while the numerator remains unchanged.

3. Other needs for joint marketing

A loan of 5 million yuan has been issued at a base interest rate. Why don’t you help each other? Employees within the company handle credit cards, salary issuance, bank card account opening, electronic banking and other tasks packaged and marketed.

4. Why is it that if you give me an extra 2 million yuan, it will not be counted as a deposit task if you can’t deposit it in the bank? Will it be counted? Awesome!

5. Some leaders use public interests to draw resources for themselves.

Why not give you a low-interest loan?

What can you bring to the bank? How much can you lend to me? It’s not enough for personnel costs!