Affected by tighter supervision and credit risk exposure of some assets, the growth rate of credit card loans of many listed banks dropped significantly in the first half of 2019. At the same time, among the eight listed banks that released credit card asset data , the non-performing ratio of 7 banks increased in this area. Analysts believe that this is related to consumer debt and macroeconomic fluctuations.
Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities (600837), said that on the one hand, the quality of credit card loans is related to the explosion of online lending platforms such as P2P since last year. On the other hand, it was affected by the overall tight credit last year. Among the entities behind it, those with poor qualifications and weak ability to obtain credit resources have difficulties in repayment. Especially in 2017, my country's credit card business expanded rapidly, and the increase in card issuance volume was also accompanied by a certain decline in customer qualifications, increasing the proportion of these less qualified borrowers.
However, he emphasized that my country's credit card loans have developed rapidly in recent years. Compared with international experience, my country's current credit card indicators are still at a relatively safe level.
The overall growth rate is shrinking
Specifically, the growth rate of card issuance volume and overdraft amount of major banks has slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, Agricultural Bank of China alone issued more than 100 million cards. In terms of other banks, the number of credit cards (including quasi-credit cards) of Bank of Communications' domestic branches was 71.47 million, a decrease of 80,000 in the first half of the year; the cumulative consumption in the first half of the year was approximately 142 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.90; the overdraft balance was 454.677 billion yuan, A decrease of 10% from the end of the previous year. In the first half of the year, ICBC issued 3.45 million new cards, with credit card overdrafts of 628.173 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.27% from the end of the previous year. China Construction Bank and Bank of China issued 6.6 million and 7.67 million new cards respectively in the first half of the year, and credit card overdrafts were 672.148 billion yuan and 457.676 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 3.19 and 7.35 respectively.
In terms of the entire industry, the "Overall Operation of the Payment System in the Second Quarter of 2019" recently announced by the Central Bank shows that as of the end of the first half of 2019, bank cards including credit cards and debit and credit cards were repayable. The credit balance was 7.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.55% from 6.85 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year. In 2018, the annual growth rate of bank card credit balance reached 23.33%. The data of credit card loan balance increased rapidly from less than 0.25 trillion yuan at the end of 2009 to 6.26 trillion yuan at the end of June 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 50%.
When talking about the reasons, Wang Jianzhong, Vice President of China Merchants Bank (600036), said that the growth of China Merchants Bank’s credit cards was slightly slower, but it reached the expected target. This is because China Merchants Bank has increased its credit card business from the fourth quarter of last year based on the risk situation. From the beginning, we adopted a proactive and appropriate strategy to control the growth of credit cards.
The non-performing rate has increased
The growth rate of credit card scale has shrunk. Part of the reason is related to banks’ proactive adjustments, but it is also affected by factors such as rising risks.
The "Overall Operation of the Payment System in the Second Quarter of 2019" shows that the total outstanding credit card credit card overdue for six months exceeded 80 billion yuan again, reaching 83.884 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.19%, accounting for 10% of the credit card payable balance. 1.17. In fact, this trend began to emerge in the fourth quarter of last year, and many banks adjusted their credit card business income structure and controlled the increase in credit card loans based on this.
Looking specifically at different banks, Bank of Communications' credit card overdraft NPL ratio was 2.49, a significant increase of 0.97 percentage points from the end of the previous year; its credit card loan NPL ratio was 2.38, an increase of 0.57 percentage points from the end of the previous year. The credit card non-performing rate of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) also increased rapidly. The bank's credit card transaction volume was 1.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.69; the total credit card business income was 28.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.49; the credit card loan non-performing ratio was 2.38, an increase of 0.57 from the end of the previous year. percentage points.
Looking into the reasons behind it, "*** debt" was mentioned many times in the interim reports of many banks.
“Affected by external factors such as the uncertainty in the international and domestic economic and financial situation and the increase in debt risks, the risks of the entire consumer finance industry have increased, but the overall risk performance remains at Relatively low level. "Ping An Bank (000001) stated that the bank has begun to adjust risk policies in advance since the end of 2017, focusing on preventing debt risks, and at the same time adopting quotas for customers in debt, high-debt and high-risk areas. Measures such as management and control, prudent credit granting, etc. have effectively controlled and reduced the proportion of high-risk customers, and the asset quality of newly issued business has been stable and improving. It is expected that the optimization effects of these control measures will gradually appear in the second half of 2019.
The only company whose credit card non-performing rate has declined is China CITIC Bank (601998). The bank's credit card non-performing loan balance was 8.678 billion yuan, with a non-performing ratio of 1.74, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the end of the previous year. However, the bank still mentioned in its interim report that "the superposition of two factors has led to an increase in credit card business risks."
Since 2018, there have been an increasing number of market lending entities such as cash loans, Internet consumer loans, and P2P platforms. Debt risks have continued to accumulate. The asset quality of the market's largest debtor groups has fluctuated significantly. Such risks are directed toward credit cards. Industry transmission trends. At the same time, as the industrial structure continues to adjust, the employment and income stability of practitioners in some regions and industries have been affected to a certain extent, resulting in a reduction in the repayment ability and willingness of some customers.
Supervision focuses on credit card risks
Supervision has begun to be strengthened in response to various risks in the credit card business. Not long ago, the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued the "Regulatory Opinions on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of Bank Card Risks" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). Five of the 13 measures directly targeted the credit card business, which shows the degree of attention it attaches to.
The "Opinions" pointed out that banks within their jurisdiction should strengthen the monitoring of capital flows for large credit card overdrafts and cash installment businesses, and ensure that personal credit card overdrafts are used for consumption and must not be used for production, operation, house purchase and investment. and other non-consumer areas; at the same time, we will strengthen the analysis of new cash-out risk characteristics such as small-amount multiple recurring cash-out repayments and overseas cash-outs on credit cards, and take effective measures to prevent credit risk extension exposure, the concentration of foreign debt risks in banks, and cross-border money laundering. risk.
In terms of strengthening credit limit management, the "Opinions" stated that banks within the jurisdiction should check customer credit limits at least once a year, and at the same time reasonably set the frequency, validity period and time interval of temporary limit increases. The temporary limit increase shall not exceed one billing cycle. In this regard, a person from the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau said that this requirement mainly prevents the problem of a single increase in the temporary limit for too long and multiple consecutive increases in the temporary limit.
Prior to this, the Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued seven credit card business-related fines in July, and the reasons for the penalties all related to "failure to comply with the total credit limit management system."
Some local regulators revealed to reporters that the supervision of credit cards has been strengthened. On the one hand, it is to prevent credit card funds from illegally flowing into other fields, and on the other hand, it is to be wary of debt risks and push up residents’ income. Leverage.
In this regard, the Guangdong Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau reminds individual consumers: First, they should not easily disclose personal information to strangers to prevent illegal use; second, use cards correctly and consume rationally to avoid repayments. Disputes; third, if you have questions about bank card accounts, you should communicate through official channels; fourth, if disputes occur, you must protect your rights through formal channels.