Use the stepwise regression method

Analyze the factors affecting bank deposits in Shanghai

1. Purpose and significance

In the modern commodity economy society , people's work and life have become inseparable from currency. In life, all kinds of goods that people need need to be purchased with money; all kinds of services that people need also need to be paid with money; the wages that people get from their labor are also paid with money. ; People want to accumulate wealth and preserve wealth for various purposes, and the main way they use it is to accumulate currency and save in banks. In addition to individuals, the daily operations of enterprises and administrative departments are also inseparable from currency. Financial revenue and expenditure are also conducted using currency. It can be seen that currency has been integrated into and affected the economic operation and people's lives. As a bank that deals in the commodity "currency", its function is to handle various deposits (also known as liability business), lending and exchange services. Among them, the various deposits (current, fixed-term, savings) absorbed by commercial banks account for approximately 10% of bank funds. 70 to 80% of the funding sources provide banks with the vast majority of funding sources and provide the basis for the realization of various functional activities of the bank. Therefore, bank deposits are of great significance to the survival and development of the bank itself. In addition, bank deposits can also reflect people's living standards and the level of economic development in a specific period. Therefore, the analysis of bank deposits in Shanghai is very important and necessary. This article will introduce the use of the stepwise regression method in SPSS11.5 statistical analysis software to analyze and study the factors affecting bank deposits in Shanghai and establish a model, so as to provide certain reference for the decision-making of relevant professionals.

2. Analysis of factors affecting bank deposits

As the main business of banks to absorb funds, deposits have many influencing factors. I selected the data of 10 main factors (from 1951 to 2000) and used the stepwise regression method of SPSS to analyze and study their impact on bank deposits in Shanghai. These 10 factors are the city's residents' savings (100 million yuan), the number of employees (10,000 people), the city's residents' consumption level (yuan/person), the city's bank loans (100 million yuan), the total fixed asset investment in the whole society (100 million yuan), Total employee wages (100 million yuan), employee labor insurance and welfare expenses (10,000 yuan), total retail sales of consumer goods (100 million yuan), total foreign trade exports (100 million U.S. dollars), and the city’s fiscal revenue (100 million yuan). The data from 1951 to 2000 on bank deposits in Shanghai and the 10 factors affecting them are shown in Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 Bank deposit data in Shanghai (1951-2000)

Bank deposits in the city by year (100 million yuan) Resident savings in the city (100 million yuan) Number of employees (10,000 people) Citywide Consumption level of residents (yuan/person) Bank loans in the city (yuan 100 million) Total fixed asset investment in the whole society (yuan 100 million) Total wages of employees (yuan 100 million) Labor insurance and welfare expenses for employees (yuan 10,000) Total retail sales of consumer goods (yuan 100 million) City finance Revenue (100 million yuan) Total foreign trade exports (100 million U.S. dollars)

1964 33.29 8.64 438.31 270 45.27 7.22 19.40 33117 26.55 73.35 6.52

1965 37.66 9.98 460.76 276 49 .77 7.75 20.07 33819 27.13 83.18 7.65

1966 40.18 10.68 462.62 298 62.52 7.23 19.74 34536 28.72 92.49 8.74

1967 43.58 10.60 478.39 300 71.82 4.61 20.22 35268 30.78 73.97 8.42

1968 50.25 10.56 516.44 293 85.32 4.58 19.75 36016 29.94 83.98 8.49

1969 57.42 10.18 536.70 309 82.12 7.45 21.06 36780 32.57 102.30 8.76

1970 142.41 10.47 540.87 304 76.05 10.90 20.63 37560 31.85 114.02 8.67

1971 155.28 11.29 560.29 318 88.74 11.36 21.14 38356 32.91 123.53 9.81

1972 167.81 12.51 576.74 334 99.41 13.23 22. 08 39169 36.15 129.11 13.30

1973 175.86 13.13 589.52 357 112.66 16.24 22.37 39999 39.79 138.18 23.16

1974 178.21 13.85 610.16 380 125.13 22.43 22.80 40847 44.06 143.04 24.39

1975 185.09 14.66 64 6.88 397 129.61 32.53 23.49 41737 47.71 147.11 22.20

1976 182.60 15.37 669.56 408 133.97 23.96 24.79 46531 49.98 144.42 19.78

1977 205.30 16.00 679.65 411 143.19 18.00 24.97 49797 49 .28 159.91 22.21

1978 242.93 18.18 698.32 442 153.37 27.91 28.12 57424 54.10 190.67 28.93

1979 267.92 24.88 712.59 527 165.16 35.58 32.73 81664 68.28 192.75

36.75

1980 291.06 30.20 730.77 582 200.98 45.43 38.10 94004 80.43 198.85 42.66

1981 148.85 32.92 750.22 638 221. 98 54.60 39.59 102061 88.73 204.52 38.07

1982 170.56 37.94 764.03 640 227.77 71.34 41.34 113909 89.80 200.69 36.05

1983 190.73 45.97 768.90 688 239.50 75.95 42.91 127679 100.68 204.34 36.48

1984 222.51 56.10 769.79 789 245.35 91.72 53.72 152282 123.72 215.79 35.87

1985 261.09 70.09 775.53 1030 306.27 118.56 68.99 190217 173.39 263.86 33.61

1986 324.81 90.95 782.99 1190 427.66 1 46.93 83.35 233574 196.84 257.72 35.82

1987 396.38 120.33 788.12 1298 523.35 186.30 94.78 286323 225.25 241.36 41.60

1988 419.68 141.21 792.13 1680 576.11 245.27 114.47 391974 295.83 261.69 46.05

1989 473.73 1 93.47 784.96 1928 698.71 214.76 131.10 437789 331.38 297.25 50.32

1990 613.86 252.16 787.72 2009 857.76 227.08 146.78 533797 333.86 284.36 53.21

1991 769.95 328.22 798.13 2421 1008.82 258.30 172. 84 670676 382.06 324.66 57.40

1992 1051.45 413.09 806.91 2842 1213.32 357.38 217.21 804903 464.82 340.13 65.55

1993 1495.06 578.39 787.25 4162 1605.57 653.91 279.33 1038701 624.30 439.53 73.82

1994 2247.56 975.95 786.04 5343 1966.96 1123.29 357.89 1241344 770.74 615.91 90.77

1995 3056.76 1396.13 794.19 6712 2387.33 1601.79 440.75 1496034 970.04 702.46 115.77

1996 3870.98 1868.34 851.21 7742 2852.66

1952.05 492.70 1873885 1161.30 873.76 132.38

1997 5560.65 2729.57 847.25 8699 3722.30 1977.59 510.10 1931500 1325.21 1070.95 147.24

1998 5595.43 2372.94 836.21 9202 4259.71 1964.83 510.35 1878137 1471.03 1146.00 159.56

1999 6270.91 2597.12 812.09 10328 4862.03 1856.72 583.54 2095239 1590.38 1390.58 187.85

2000 6925.99 2524.05 828.35 1 1546 5415.71 2015.76 614.53 2521553 1722.27 1752.70 253.54

Note: The data source of this table: "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook" 》

2.1 The city’s residents’ savings (100 million yuan)

Personal monetary income is used for personal consumption, and savings are prepared for long-term consumption or unpredictable needs. They are both It is not capital, and the amount is relatively small. Due to the development of the modern banking system, which holds savings and pays interest, small amounts of monetary income can be converted into capital, thereby expanding the total amount of social capital and accelerating economic development. As can be seen from Table 2.1, with the development of social economy and the continuous improvement of people's income, the city's residents' savings increased from 101 million yuan in 1951 to 252.405 billion yuan in 2000, especially after 1985, showing a rapid growth trend. It can be seen that the growth of public savings will increase the scale of banks' profitable assets, which will enable commercial banks to obtain more income to a certain extent. Therefore, the city's residents' savings have a direct and far-reaching impact on bank deposits.

2.2 Number of employees (10,000 people)

The number of employees refers to the total number of people working in enterprises and institutions in all walks of life in the city, including state-owned, collective, joint venture, Employees of sole proprietorships and other units, urban individual workers, rural collective and individual workers and other workers. From Table 2.1, we can see that the number of employees is showing a steady growth trend, which is closely related to the increase in the city's population. Shanghai's rapid economic development in the past decade and its image as an international metropolis have attracted a large number of immigrants (from other places and foreign countries) to live, start businesses and work in Shanghai. As the number of enterprises in the city continues to increase, the number of employees is also increasing. The number of employees is closely related to bank deposits, because each employee will have his or her own income. Regardless of the amount of income, each of them will have more than one account in the bank and use passbooks and debit cards to withdraw money. Pay wages or handle various current and regular savings or withdrawals; use credit cards to make purchases or withdraw money.

2.3 The city’s residents’ consumption level (yuan/person)

The residents’ consumption level refers to the residents’ contribution to meeting people’s needs for survival, development and enjoyment during the consumption process of material products and services. the extent achieved. It is reflected in the quantity and quality of material products and services consumed.

The main indicators reflecting residents’ consumption levels are:

(1) Average physical consumption indicators: average annual consumption of consumer goods per person, average ownership of durable consumer goods per 100 households, per capita living area, Average domestic water consumption per person, average electricity consumption per person, etc.;

(2) Popularity indicators of modern living facilities: tap water penetration rate, gas penetration rate, average ownership of major household appliances per 100 households, telephone Penetration rate, etc.;

(3) Consumption structure indicators reflecting consumption levels: the proportion of food in residents’ living consumption expenditure, the proportion of cultural life service expenditure in residents’ living consumption expenditure, the consumption proportion of consumer goods of different quality, etc.;

(4) Value indicators of average consumption: average consumption fund per person, average living consumption per person, average expenditure per person on various daily consumption, etc.

From Table 2.1, we can see that residents’ consumption levels have greatly improved after 1990. It can be seen that people’s quality of life is getting better and better with the acceleration of the pace of reform and opening up.

2.4 City-wide bank loans (100 million yuan)

Loans, also known as lending, are businesses in which banks lend the funds they absorb to customers at a certain interest rate and agree on a repayment period . Although banks use funds in more than one way: loans, loans generally account for the largest proportion of commercial banks' assets. Through loan connections, banks can have close contact with industrial and commercial enterprises, which will help expand business areas and obtain more profits. The types of bank loans are divided into at least the following categories according to different labels: they are divided into short-term loans, medium-term loans and long-term loans according to the term; they can be divided into investment loans, commercial loans, consumer loans and agricultural loans according to the purpose; according to whether the loan has collateral Divided into: mortgage loans and unsecured loans; according to the way of exchange, it is divided into: one-time repayment loan and installment loan. As can be seen from Table 2.1, bank loans continue to increase significantly, indicating the rapid development of the economy and changes in people's consumption concepts.

2.5 Total fixed asset investment in the whole society (100 million yuan)

Total fixed asset investment is the workload of construction and purchase of fixed assets expressed in currency. It reflects the investment in fixed assets. Comprehensive indicators of scale, speed, proportional relationships and direction of use. Fixed asset investment in the whole society includes capital construction investment, renovation investment, other fixed asset investment by state-owned units, real estate development investment, urban collective fixed asset investment, joint venture economy, joint-stock economy, foreign investment economy, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment economy and other economic types. Fixed asset investment, rural collective fixed asset investment of more than 50,000 yuan, private housing investment in urban industrial and mining areas and investment in national defense and civil air defense infrastructure.

According to the economic type, fixed asset investment in the whole society can be divided into state-owned, collective, individual, joint venture, joint-stock, foreign, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan businessmen, others, etc. According to management channels, the total fixed asset investment in the whole society is divided into four parts: capital construction, renovation and transformation, real estate development investment and other fixed asset investment.

It is the main means of reproduction of social fixed assets. Through the activities of building and purchasing fixed assets, the national economy continues to adopt advanced technology and equipment, establish emerging sectors, further adjust the economic structure and regional distribution of productivity, enhance economic strength, and create material conditions for improving people's material and cultural life. This is of great significance to my country's socialist modernization drive.

From Table 2.1, we can see that the total amount of fixed asset investment is growing in an irregular manner. The total amount of fixed asset investment in 2000 increased by 8.8 times compared with 1900, which very truly reflects the growth of Shanghai in the last century. The economic boom of the 1990s.

2.6 Total employee wages (100 million yuan)

Total employee wages refer to the total labor remuneration paid directly to all employees of the unit by each unit within a certain period, including bonuses and allowances , subsidies, overtime wages and other wages (additional wages, retained wages, adjusted wages and back wages of the previous year, etc.). To some extent, employee wages are the main source of citizens’ income. If the income is relatively high, the amount residents spend on consumption and savings will also increase accordingly, so employee wages directly affect bank deposits.

2.7 Labor insurance and welfare expenses for employees (10,000 yuan)

Labor insurance and welfare refers to labor insurance and welfare. In order to protect the health of workers and alleviate their difficulties in life, my country has formulated corresponding legal provisions on labor insurance. Welfare refers to the general term for employee and worker welfare, and also refers to welfare measures implemented for enterprise employees, including statutory benefits, and various measures implemented by business owners and labor unions to improve the living standards of employees. As can be seen from Table 2.1, in 2000, the total amount of labor insurance and welfare fees paid by units to employees reached 25,215,530,000 yuan, and its proportion increased at an annual rate of 3% to 8%, reaching as high as 67.9%. This data illustrates people’s basic living standards It can be protected so that more money can be used for other consumption and for savings deposits or other financial investments.

2.8 Total retail sales of consumer goods (100 million yuan)

Total retail sales of consumer goods refers to the impact of wholesale and retail trade, catering, manufacturing and other industries of various economic types on urban and rural residents. and the sum of retail sales of consumer goods by social groups and retail sales by farmers to non-agricultural residents. Including commodities sold to urban and rural residents for daily consumption (excluding housing) and commodities sold to agencies, groups, military units, schools, enterprises, institutions and urban street residents’ committees and rural villagers’ committees for non-production and non-production purposes. Consumer goods used in business. This indicator reflects the supply of consumer goods to residents and social groups through various commodity circulation channels to meet their daily needs. It is an important indicator for studying issues such as people's lives, social purchasing power of consumer goods, and currency circulation.

2.9 The city’s fiscal revenue (100 million yuan)

Since the finance wants to provide public goods to meet the needs of the public, it must draw on the gross domestic income (GDI-- A part of the revenue is concentrated in the income indicator corresponding to the production indicator GDP). From this sense, fiscal revenue refers to a certain amount of monetary revenue, that is, a certain amount of total domestic revenue that the country possesses expressed in currency; fiscal revenue can also be understood As a distribution process, this process is the first stage or the first link of financial operation, in which a specific distribution relationship or interest relationship is formed. Fiscal revenue is divided according to its form into taxes, charges, debt revenue, seigniorage and inflation tax. Fiscal operation is a part of the operation of the national economy. The operation of the national economy determines the operation of finance, and the operation of finance in turn affects the operation of the national economy, directly affecting investment, consumption, import and export, and affecting the growth and structure of GDP. It affects income distribution and the income gap between various classes, and affects the stability and sustainable development of the economy.

2.10 Total foreign trade exports (100 million U.S. dollars)

Foreign export trade has always been an important link and manifestation of Shanghai’s economic development. It is also an important factor in earning foreign exchange, achieving balance of international payments, and increasing Prerequisites for international reserves. With China's accession to the WTO, Shanghai's foreign trade has become more and more frequent and the quantity and amount of exported goods have also greatly increased. At present, most of the payment terms entered into by the buyer and seller in international goods sales contracts are settled in cash through banks. The settlement tools used in international goods sales are mainly currency and bills, and banks serve as settlement intermediaries between buyers and sellers to handle exchange business, letter of credit business, and acceptance business. The first two are settlement businesses derived from bank deposit business, while the acceptance business uses the bank's credit to ensure the customer's credit. By the end of 2000, the growth rate of general trade exports continued to be higher than that of processing trade, and the structural adjustment of export products also accelerated, with the export of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products growing rapidly.

3. Regression method and model establishment

3.1 Research method and principle

Use multiple linear stepwise regression method to study and predict the factors affecting bank deposits in Shanghai. Stepwise regression is to introduce the regression equation one by one according to the degree of the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable from large to small. Each time a variable is introduced, the significance of each independent variable in the equation is tested at the same time. The qualified ones are retained and the insignificant ones are eliminated. This is repeated until there are no more significant ones. variables can be introduced. Regression analysis is to establish a regression equation (model) based on the best combination of independent variables to predict the future development trend of the dependent variable.

The application condition of this method is that there is a large amount of observational statistical data, and it is suitable for studying factor objects with no definite relationship form. The application tool is SPSS statistical software.

3.2 Establishment and solution of the model

Because bank deposits have an exponential relationship with most variables, the 50-year data of each original variable in Table 2.1 is logarithmically transformed (LN10( )), and model the transformed sample data back 8 years.

Suppose the model of multiple linear regression is:

lnY=β0 β1X1 β2X2 β3X3 … β9X9 β10X10

Where:

Y: the whole city Bank deposits (100 million yuan)

X1 ——The city’s residents’ savings (100 million yuan) ——Employee labor insurance and welfare expenses (10,000 yuan)

X3 ——Consumption level of the city’s residents (yuan/person) X8 ——Total retail sales of consumer goods (100 million yuan)

X4 —— The city's bank loans (100 million yuan) X9 - the city's fiscal revenue (100 million yuan)

p>

Note: The number of years of regression in the model is represented by (t-n), where n represents the number of years of regression. (t-n) does not participate in any calculation, it is only used for identification.

Use SPSS11.5 to perform statistical analysis on the sample data. The output results after running are shown in Table 3.2.1.

Table 3.2.1 Stepwise regression statistical analysis results Coefficients

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

18 (Constant) -.994 1.012 -.982 .334

Juchu 7 .692 .146 .595 4.741 .000

Conongren 1 1.386 .604 .216 2.294 . 029

Fixed Investment 6 -.285 .046 -.280 -6.246 .000

Finance 4 -.634 .146 -.289 -4.358 .000

Bank Loan 4 1.007 .100 .813 10.057 .000

Laofu 2 -1.396 .189 -1.221 -7.380 .000

Salary 1 1.053 .232 .754 4.531 .000

Finance 3 -.670 .134 -.311 -5.005 .000

Servants 8 -2.413 .336 -.485 -7.184 .000

Servants 2 2.954 .670 .479 4.406 .000

Yindai 2 .520 .110 .440 4.703 .000

Lao Fu6 .418 .193 .305 2.168 .039

That is, the regression model is:

lnY＝0.595X1(t-7) +0.216X2(t-1) -0.28X5(t-6) -0.289X9(t-4) +0 .813X4 (t-4) -

1.221X7 (t-2) +0.754X6(t-1) -0.311X9(t-3) -0.485X2(t-8) +0.479X2( t-2)

0.44X4(t-2) +0.305X7(t-6)

So, in the 50-year data sample going back 8 years, the growth of bank deposits Compared with the city's residents' savings in the previous 7 years, the number of employees in the previous 1, 8, and 2 years, the total fixed asset investment in the entire society in the first 6 years, the city's fiscal revenue in the first 4 and 3 years, and the city's fiscal revenue in the first 4 years There is a significant correlation with factors such as bank loans in the previous two years, employee labor insurance and welfare expenses in the previous two and six years, and total employee wages in the previous year.

4. Conclusion and evaluation

4.1 Model evaluation

4.1.1 Analysis of entry factors

Table 4.1.1.1 Variables Entered/ Removed(a)

Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method

1 Juchu 7. Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter <= .050, Probability- of-F-to-remove gt;= .100).

2 Salary 7. Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter lt;= .050, Probability-of-F- to-remove gt; = .100).

3 Fixed investment 8. Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter lt; = .050, Probability-of-F-to-remove gt;= .100).

4 From 1. Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter lt;= .050, Probability-of-F-to-remove gt;= .100).

5. Salary 7 Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter lt; = .050, Probability-of-F-to-remove gt; = .100).

Because SPSS11.5 software performs overall statistical calculations on Shanghai-related data through specific procedures, it has stronger objectivity and notarization. As can be seen from the table above, according to the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable from large to small, the first seven years of household savings are introduced, and in the fifth step, the employee wages of the previous seven years are eliminated. , and then in the following steps 14 and 17, the fixed investment in the first 8 years and the bank loans in the first 3 years are eliminated. These three eliminated variables were found to be unqualified for significance when more and more variables were introduced. In addition, among the 10 independent variables, such as the city's residents' consumption level, total retail sales of consumer goods, and total foreign trade export commodities did not enter the model. Because the increase in total foreign trade exports did not reach significance enough to enter the equation, it was eliminated. However, with the globalization of trade and the improvement of China's international status, Shanghai's total foreign trade exports will continue to increase, which will play a significant role in bank deposits in the near future.

We can see from Table 3.2.1 that among the entry factors are the total fixed asset investment in the whole society, fiscal revenue, employee labor insurance and welfare expenses in the previous 2 years, employees and bank deposits in the previous 8 years is a negative correlation, that is, as their increase accelerates, the growth of bank deposits will slow down. Among them, employee labor insurance and welfare expenses in the first two years have the strongest impact, with a coefficient of -1.221. The impact on employees, fiscal revenue, and total fixed asset investment in the whole society in the first eight years decreased in sequence. For example, the increase in total fixed asset investment in the whole society shows that state-owned, collective, individual, joint venture, joint-stock, foreign, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan businessmen have provided investment in capital construction, renovation, real estate development and other fixed assets, then they must Take out your own deposits from the bank, and sometimes you need to borrow money from the bank to complete the investment, so it is conceivable that the amount of bank deposits will increase slowly.

Another example is fiscal revenue. The government's fiscal revenue is obtained through taxes, fees, etc. If the state levies more taxes on individuals and enterprises, the expenditures of individuals and enterprises will increase, and the net income will decrease. , and if the amount used for consumption remains unchanged or increases, then the currency used for bank deposits will decrease accordingly, resulting in a slow increase in bank deposits in the city.

And residents’ savings, bank loans, employees’ wages, employees in the previous year and two years, and employee labor insurance and welfare expenses in the previous six years are positively correlated with bank deposits, that is, as they increase, they accelerate , the growth of bank deposits will also accelerate, among which bank loans in the first four years have the strongest impact, with a coefficient of 0.813, followed by household savings and so on. For example, an increase in employee wages will increase people's income. Although part of the increase in income will be used to pay for consumption, most people will still deposit the money in banks and use it for various types of investments. This kind of The behavior accelerated the increase in bank deposits. Another example: The increase in residents' savings will of course directly affect the increase in bank deposits. This is undoubtedly because residents' savings are the main content of bank deposit business and the main way for banks to absorb funds. Another example: economic development will increase the amount of bank loans. If banks want to gain more profits by lending to individual or corporate customers, banks will use various means to increase the amount of funds they attract. In this case, idle funds in society will flow to banks due to higher returns, causing the increase in bank deposits to accelerate.

We can see from Table 4.1.2.1 that as more variables are entered, the F value changes from large to small, and then from small to large, so that the F value in the last step reaches 1191.379, indicating that The regression model includes 12 variables and has a high degree of fit.

4.1.3 Diagnosis of autocorrelation problems

When the DW value is generally required to be 1.5 to 2.5, the residual and independent variables are independent of each other. It can be seen from Table 4.1.3.1 that the DW value of the regression model is 2.342, indicating that the model has no autocorrelation problem and this model can be used.

Table 4.1.3.1 Model Summary(s)

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the

4.1.4 Sample Test

Table 4.1.4.1

Log value of year (y1) Pair prediction value (y2) Relative error (%)

2001 3.93 4.05 3.05

2002 3.98 4.17 4.77

2003 4.09 4.32 5.62

The relative error of the above sample test is calculated by subtracting the corresponding predicted value from each pair of predicted values ??from 2001 to 2003. It is obtained by dividing the logarithmic value by the logarithmic value. The formula:

Relative error = (y2-y1)/y1×100

The relative error of the sample test needs to be no more than 10, which means that the established model can be used. The calculated relative errors in Table 4.1.4.1 are all less than 10, indicating that the model is well established.

4.1.5 Residual normality test

Figure 4.1.5.1 Standardized residual histogram of logarithm of bank deposits

Figure 4.1.5.1 shows: The mean value of the normal curve of the standardized residuals is 0 and the standard deviation is 0.84, which is close to the standard normal curve. It basically meets the assumption theory of normal distribution of random error terms, and the model fitting effect is relatively good.

4.1.6 Normal probability plot and residual scatter plot of logarithm of bank deposits

Figure 4.1.6.1 Normal probability plot

Figure 4.1. 6.2 Scatter plot

Figure 4.1.6.1 shows that the data points representing the sample residuals are basically on or around the straight line representing the specified normal distribution, so it basically conforms to the hypothesis theory of the residual normal distribution.

Figure 4.1.6.2 shows that the distribution of residual scatter points is random and even, and most of them fall between the horizontal straight line -2 and 2, so it can be judged that the independence between the residual and the dependent variable is relatively high. , which basically satisfies the hypothesis theory of independent residuals, and the fitting effect of the model is relatively good.

4.2 Conclusion

To sum up, the continuous increase of deposits in commercial banks can reflect the continuous increase in the income of Shanghai residents and the continuous improvement of the quality of life. It reflects Shanghai's rapid financial development and economic prosperity from the side. After my country's accession to the WTO, the degree of financial opening up to the outside world has deepened, and competition between domestic banks and between foreign banks and Chinese banks has become increasingly fierce, and deposits are an important area of ??competition. With the enrichment of our country's national material life, changes in consumption concepts, and the increase in investment channels, these factors will profoundly affect the characteristics of customer deposit demand. At present, the liabilities of my country's commercial banks are mainly deposits, with a single liability structure and lack of stability. At the same time, due to historical and institutional reasons, banks, especially state-owned commercial banks, have problems such as poor asset quality, high non-performing loan ratio, and insufficient capital. The banking industry has accumulated a lot of risks. Therefore, the deposit products of my country's commercial banks must improve the contract design, improve the mechanism design of equal incentives and constraints, innovate the types of deposit products, and meet the personalized needs of different customers; at the same time, the stability of deposits must be improved. As the country's financial center, Shanghai should establish a reasonable financial system and improve its system in line with the progress of the times. As an important part of finance, commercial banks should continue to reform and innovate themselves to better serve individual and corporate customers. This is of great significance and role for the improvement of Shanghai people's living standards and the stable development of the economy.

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