I learned from the "Overall Operation of the Payment System in the Third Quarter of 2018" released by the Central Bank that the total outstanding credit of credit cards (debit cards) overdue in the first half of 2018 was 88.098 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase 16.43. According to data released in the first quarter of 2018, this number was 77.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11 billion yuan in just six months. The data for the same period in 2014 was only 35.764 billion yuan, which means that the scale of outstanding credit cards (debit cards) that were overdue for six months even doubled in four years. So let me talk to my friends today: Will there be a crisis if overdue debt on credit cards (debit cards) continues to rise? Friends, let’s take a look at the details.

Why has the scale of overdue credit cards (debit cards) increased significantly? What trend issues do we need to be alert to behind personal credit defaults? What does it mean behind the large-scale overdue credit cards? According to the "Overall Payment System Operation in the Third Quarter of 2018", the scale of bank card credit continues to expand. As of the end of the third quarter of 2018, the average credit limit of bank cards was 22,300 yuan, and the credit utilization rate was 45.03. The total outstanding credit of credit cards (debit cards) that was overdue for six months was 88.098 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 16.43%, accounting for 1.34% of the credit balance payable by credit cards (debit cards).

What is the reason why the total amount of overdue credit cards (debit cards) continues to grow? In my opinion, first, the credit card (debit card) business is developing rapidly, and the customer base continues to expand, which will lead to a slight increase in the non-performing rate. Second, there is a phenomenon of alienation in the use of credit cards (debit cards). “The mission of a credit card (debit card) is to pay and settle. However, because a credit card (debit card) has a certain credit limit, that is, a small loan function, some small and micro enterprises and small business owners use credit cards (debit cards) to solve credit funds. Demand has deviated from the origin of credit cards (credit cards), resulting in an increase in the number of overdue credit cards (debit cards). In recent years, consumer finance has developed vigorously. As Internet finance and small loan companies have squeezed into the field of personal credit loans, various companies have entered the field of personal credit loans. Banks are also issuing a large number of credit cards (credit cards) to encourage installment payments. In June this year, the China Banking Association released statistics showing that as of the end of 2017, the cumulative number of bank cards issued in my country reached 7.03 billion. There are 5.06 cards per capita, of which the cumulative number of credit cards (credit cards) issued reached 790 million. The number of newly issued credit cards (credit cards) was 160 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.9.

Credit cards ( The "blowout" of the credit card business can be seen from the public data of listed banks. In the first half of 2018, the number of banks with cumulative credit card (credit card) issuances exceeding 100 million increased to 4, namely Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (156 million). China Construction Bank (115 million), China Merchants Bank (114 million) and Bank of China (104 million). The year-on-year growth rates of card issuance in the first half of 2018 for joint-stock commercial banks such as Ping An Bank, Industrial Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank all exceeded 60%. There is an inherent logic in developing retail banking business. During the economic downturn, the non-performing rate of corporate business increases rapidly, and interbank business is subject to strict supervision. Therefore, retail business has become a very important development direction. As half of the retail business, credit cards (debit cards) constitute half of the sky. Naturally, it has been taken seriously. However, the ratio of the total outstanding credit of credit cards (credit cards) for the current period for half a year to the credit balance of the current credit cards (credit cards) is only 1.34, that is, the overdue rate of credit cards (credit cards) remains at 1.34. At a lower level. Wang Jian, an analyst at Guosen Securities, believes that although a large number of banks have poured into the credit card (debit card) market since 2017, coupled with the tight liquidity in the first half of this year and the strengthening of cash loan supervision, the debt problem This has led to an increase in the non-performing rate of bank credit cards (debit cards), but there is no need to worry about crisis events at present.

The leverage ratio of China's residential sector has exceeded that of the United States, and the potential of the credit card (debit card) business field has increased. The risk has attracted the attention of the judiciary.

On November 28, 2018, the Supreme People's Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate issued the "Decision to Amend the Interpretation on Several Issues Concerning the Specific Application of Laws in the Handling of Criminal Cases Obstructing the Management of Credit Cards (Debit Cards)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") , if the amount of malicious overdraft is relatively large and is fully returned before the prosecution is initiated or there are other minor circumstances, prosecution may not be instituted; if the amount is fully returned before the first instance judgment or there are other minor circumstances, criminal punishment may be waived. However, there are exceptions for those who have been punished more than twice for credit card (debit card) fraud. In my opinion, the "Decision" mainly relaxes the standards in terms of criminal liability. This also reflects that the overdue cost of credit cards (debit cards) in my country is still relatively low. "In other countries, an overdue credit card (debit card) may make it difficult for a person to move forward. With the construction of our country's social credit system, I believe everyone will pay more and more attention to personal credit records.

And credit cards ( Credit card) overdraft is directly related to household debt. In August 2018, "Beware of the Household Debt Crisis and the Systemic Financial Risks It May Cause" believed that household debt is approaching the limit that households can bear as of 2017. , my country's household debt-to-GDP ratio is 48, and the ratio of household debt to disposable income is even as high as 107.2, which has exceeded the current level in the United States and is approaching the peak before the financial crisis in the United States. The household sector's leverage ratio has increased sharply, and the household debt-to-GDP ratio has increased sharply. It is not high, but if you compare household debt with disposable income, the ratio is scary. Today's more intuitive debt data comes from banks, credit cards (debit cards), etc. We should be wary of the sharp increase in the leverage ratio of the residential sector. Phenomenon. Public information shows that credit card (debit card) crises have occurred in South Korea, Taiwan, and other regions. In 2003, a serious credit card (debit card) crisis broke out in South Korea, and the bad debt rates of major credit card (debit card) companies were high. As high as 13.5, it is almost on the verge of bankruptcy, which has dealt a huge blow to the Korean economy and people. Regulatory authorities and banks should strengthen prior supervision and prevention. For example, banks should adopt "rigid deductions" when approving credit card limits. "Rigid deduction" principle means that when a bank grants a credit limit to a credit card (debit card) holder, it must deduct the total credit limit of the applicant's accumulated credit cards (debit cards) from other banks. "Rigid deduction" if If it can be implemented, it will help prevent excessive credit card (debit card) credit

There are more than 150 credit card (debit card) compensation platforms, and risks are accumulating. This is not the case. Just a joke. What we need to be alert to is that the growth of the credit card (debit card) compensation market is accumulating risks in the credit card (debit card) business. The so-called credit card (debit card) compensation refers to the credit card (debit card) business. When the cardholder repays the credit card (debit card) bill of the card-issuing bank, he settles the credit card (debit card) bill of the card-issuing bank in one go by applying for a loan from a third-party institution, and then repays it in installments to the third-party loan financial institution. . In a credit card (debit card) repayment APP, the user only needs to reserve 5% of the bill principal to implement the repayment plan, and the user can repay the bill in full. After the APP is bound, the APP automatically runs the repayment, and the repayment fee is as low as 60 yuan per 10,000 yuan.

According to my incomplete statistics, there are more than 150 reimbursement platforms, including 70 related website platforms. Yujia has more than 80 APPs. This segment has even supported many listed companies. As far as I know, there are risks of violation in the credit card (debit card) compensation business, which is different from ordinary credit cards (debit cards). The method of repayment by depositing cash or debit card after consumption is different. The relevant credit card (debit card) reimbursement agency simulates merchant consumption, withdraws cash and then repays the original credit card (debit card). As early as May 2018, the National Internet Financial Security Technical Expert Committee issued an announcement stating that the business model that combines credit card (debit card) reimbursement and Internet finance involves illegal cash withdrawals from credit cards (debit cards) and platforms. Issues such as charging high fees and the security of user credit card (debit card) information are worthy of attention.

The report pointed out that the operation models of these compensation platforms basically include three types, "cash loan model", "platform compensation model" and "credit card (debit card) cash withdrawal model". Among them, the "credit card (credit card) cash withdrawal model" is actually the user's multiple credit cards (credit cards). There is a loophole in the interest exemption period when using credit cards (credit cards) to swipe credit card (credit card) purchases. , cycle through multiple cards to maintain interest-free borrowing. Specifically: the user swipes the credit card (debit card) B on the platform, and the platform will return the credit card (debit card) funds to the user after charging the handling fee, and then the user can use the funds in the credit card (debit card) B to Pay off a credit card (debit card) A. Credit card (debit card) balance compensation does have the possibility of withdrawing cash. For example, first use a credit card (debit card) to make a large purchase, and then withdraw the funds through the compensation platform. In fact, the credit card (debit card) crisis in many areas started with compensation. In fact, customers who need to use reimbursement services are precisely the relatively secondary users among cardholders. If this business is over-amplified, in addition to the risk of cash withdrawal, it may also greatly increase the risk of the entire credit card (debit card) industry.

Let me summarize: Credit card (debit card) is a complete double-edged sword product. In my opinion, 88.098 billion yuan is not a small number. According to my incomplete statistics, the average credit card (debit card) limit of most credit card (debit card) holders is less than 50,000 yuan, which means that there are nearly 1.5 million credit cards (debit cards) with unpaid credit cards. signs of compensation. I suggest friends that with the impact of the overall economic environment, friends should not focus on credit cards (debit cards). Otherwise, once your friends become unemployed or their capital chain is broken, they will only fall into an endless quagmire of debt. I hope this information will be helpful to my friends.