The core data of tourism statistics is the total number of tourists in China, and its statistical method is sampling survey. An industry veteran told the new travel industry that the main statistical method is household survey. According to a certain proportion of urban and rural areas, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the number of trips and travel expenses of sample families in the country, so as to calculate the total number of trips and total tourism income in the country.

There are errors in the data obtained through sampling survey, but the calculated values are still reliable!

estimate the number of local tourists through a comprehensive and scientific estimation of hotel check-in, ticket purchase and the number of tourists received by travel agencies, and draw a conclusion! : www.en-square.com The results of the seventh national census show that the total population of China and the United States is still the largest in the world, and it has maintained a low growth trend in recent 1 years. However, new changes have taken place in the characteristics of China, which will profoundly affect the future development of tourism.

The data of the seventh population census dispelled concerns about the total population. China The total population of the United States is still the largest in the world. It has the largest labor force in the world, and it is also a huge consumer population. In the next 1 years, the tourism economy of China and the United States will continue to expand, but the growth rate may gradually slow down. Cheng, chief researcher of Tongcheng Research Institute, said in an interview with China Economic Times reporter.

future tourism demand will be polarized.

the population structure has an important influence on tourism consumption and production. On the one hand, the positive side of the current demographic changes to the development of tourism is that the demand for tourism combining old-age care and health will increase; On the other hand, labor supply is insufficient, and labor costs will continue to rise; In addition, with the decrease of the employed population with strong ability to pay, the growth rate of tourism consumption has slowed down. Zeng Tian, assistant researcher of china tourism academy Institute of Data Analysis, said in an interview with China Economic Times.

according to comprehensive statistics, the population aged -14 accounted for 17.95%, up by 1.35 percentage points compared with 1 years ago, and the population over 6 accounted for 18.7%, up by 5.44 percentage points compared with 1 years ago. The population aged -14 and over 6 has further increased.

Zeng Tian believes that the future development of tourism will be characterized by polarization of tourism demand. The continuous expansion of the elderly population will drive the development of tourism and accommodation industries such as old-age homes and holiday real estate; Wealthy and leisure elderly groups will become the main market segments of theme tourism such as vacation and medical tourism. In addition, research tourism, which mainly serves teenagers, has developed rapidly. With the deepening of the concept of quality education, more and more teenagers began to practice reading thousands of books and taking Wan Li Road to join the ranks of tourists. The overall scale of the research tourism market will continue to expand.

In Cheng S's view, parent-child travel and old-age travel have great potential, especially in the stage of deep aging. The market boundary of old-age travel will continue to expand, and the downstream format will undergo fundamental changes.

However, with the increasing proportion of the elderly population and the decreasing proportion of the working population, it will be a great challenge to the service-intensive tourism industry. Cheng believes that labor costs will continue to rise in the future, and labor shortage is spreading to tourism-related fields, which is not conducive to the structural reform of the tourism supply side.

Zeng Tian told reporters that the scientific and technological revolution will enhance the favorable influence and weaken the unfavorable influence. First of all, with the development of science and technology, when machines can replace part of human labor force, the problem of labor shortage will be alleviated; Secondly, the scientific and technological revolution has brought about an increase in income, which can partially offset the negative impact of the decrease in the employed population with strong ability to pay; Finally, the development of science and technology will improve the conditions and ability of the elderly to travel abroad, thus further increasing their tourism consumption.

In addition, the data of the seventh population census show that the trend of family miniaturization continues, with an average family population of 2.62. Cheng believes that the trend of family miniaturization and the growth of solitary population will have a far-reaching impact on residents' tourism consumption behavior. Generations or extended families will travel less and less, but group travel of unrelated neighbors and classmates will become more and more common, thus giving birth to new formats and new consumption of family travel. In addition, the population living alone is also growing rapidly, and one-person tour is expected to become a unique market segment in the future, which will create new opportunities for tourism practitioners.

tourism enterprises should seize the new opportunities in the tourism market.

In the future, family tourism, elderly tourism, parent-child tourism and research tourism related to children may be new growth points in the tourism market. Zeng Tian told reporters.

in addition, according to the data of the seventh population census, the population is accelerating to move to large urban agglomerations, and a number of super urban agglomerations will be formed in the foreseeable future.

Cheng believes that the formation of super-urban agglomeration is expected to produce several super-large localized and surrounding leisure and holiday markets, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for tourism enterprises; The formation of super-urban agglomeration is bound to be accompanied by the rapid increase of urbanization rate, and the American lifestyle, especially the consumption pattern, is bound to undergo tremendous changes. The existing supply and demand system of tourism products must adapt to this change, and quality and diversification will be the long-term trend.

Zeng Tian believes that in order to seize this new opportunity, tourism enterprises must start from discovering demand, tourism marketing, brand building and improving service quality.

Cheng believes that we should start from three aspects: First, China's sports and American tourism market will still occupy the first place in the world and will maintain steady growth in the next decade. Tourism enterprises should strengthen their confidence, focus on the long-term layout and adjust their development priorities in real time according to the new development pattern. The second is to systematically study the influence of population structure and scale development trend on the relationship between supply and demand in the tourism market, make long-term plans, and seize the development opportunities of market segments, such as actively arranging old-age tours, adjusting product structure, and developing parent-child tours. Third, actively respond to the challenge of population aging and tap opportunities for digital and information development.

2. Data analysis of travel agencies

This is a sad story: a promoter of barrier-free travel died on a road with obstacles. Three months ago, the founder of Jinghua, Wen Jun's Home for Paraplegic Patients, fell to the ground in a wheelchair while inspecting the barrier-free travel route again, and never woke up.

on this road, there are no warning lines and signs, and at the end is an underground garage entrance about 2.2 meters above the ground. It is speculated that Wen Jun, who is half a body position lower than the ordinary person in the wheelchair, probably died because of the gravity of the wheelchair and his head hit the ground when he rushed down.

According to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Disabled Persons in 218, since the State Council promulgated and implemented the Regulations on the Construction of Barrier-free Environment, China has issued 475 regulations, government orders and normative documents on the construction and management of barrier-free environment, and carried out barrier-free environment construction in 1,72 cities and counties.

however, one problem that needs to be faced is that many of these facilities can really not be used. According to the 1-city Survey Data Federation of China Consumers Association and China Disabled Persons Association in 217, the overall penetration rate of barrier-free facilities in China is 4.6%, which is at a low level; In addition, some barrier-free facilities are occupied, the maintenance is not in place, and there are problems with the design.

Some situations make people laugh and cry: many toilets are marked barrier-free and closed all year round, filled with mops, brooms and other cleaning appliances; Some are open, but with spring doors, it is difficult to push them open; At the entrance of a residential area in Wuhan, a 2-meter-long ramp turned eight corners and ended in steps.

On one occasion, Zhang E needed to use the barrier-free toilet at the airport. She followed the sign to the door, only to find that the bathroom was locked.

Four men in wheelchairs in the Wingless Flying Public Welfare Center in Xi 'an, spent more than three months making a field survey on the ramps of urban main roads and secondary roads within the Third Ring Road. There were 1191 questions in the 3338 pictures they took. Unusable ramps are strange: some years are too long, too old and completely broken; Some intersections are blocked by a solid pillar, leaving only a gap of thirty or forty centimeters; Small business stalls on the roadside occupy all the white space on the sidewalk.

Compared with imperfect facilities, what is even more surprising is people's indifference. Today, many people still want to know. Where are so many disabled people on the road?

According to China Disabled Persons Data Federation, the total number of disabled people in China has reached 85 million, which means that almost one in every 1 people in China is disabled.

Dacheng, a good sister of a wheelchair-bound video blogger, thinks that the barrier-free environment in China is unfriendly in most cases. Because the social environment is condescending to the disabled directly or indirectly, these disabled friends even lose their awareness of rights.

even under such circumstances, no one stood up and asked for transformation. Instead, I think I should digest it myself. She said that these disabled people all hid and became invisible.

Wei inspected the barrier-free facilities in Xi 'an: some ramps are broken or there are no ramps at all. Photo courtesy of the interviewee

The door was blocked, so he had to dial 12 for help.

when Zhang e was 9 years old, she suffered a serious fracture of her lumbar spine and paralysis of her lower limbs due to a car accident. When studying in China, her mother had to quit her stable job in order to pick her up in exchange for relatively free time. From undergraduate to graduate for 7 years, Zhang Es class sent her home. When everyone is busy, she will ask one by one, can you do it today?

she described that every time she wanted to go out. It feels like climbing a mountain. She wants to take part in an activity, but if the level of that place is high, she must give it up; She planned to volunteer for the Olympic Games, but she found that there were volunteer steps in the school bus and the training ground. She had to ask other volunteers to guarantee her, so she had to give up her idea. It is a taste that opportunities are directly killed by changeable obstacles.

Like all the people in this group, Zhang E wants to be regarded as an equal, not just to provide so-called help. She wants to provide them with ramps and elevators that can walk.

Because he suffers from congenital motor neuron peroneal muscular atrophy, Jason's study career is full of obstacles. The experimental class is downstairs and the parallel class is upstairs. She asked the school to arrange a classroom with a lower floor. The experimental class rejected her because of her grades. The head teacher of the parallel class was afraid that she would cause trouble to others and kicked her around like a ball.

Finally, she was assigned to a parallel class, on the 4th floor, and climbed for three years. Later, her grades jumped to the top, but she was still not ineligible to participate in excellent classes. After the one-day course, the excellent class of the students had to go to the second floor of another teaching building to make up lessons. This route is almost climbing mountains for her.

The school toilet is on the first floor, and there is no toilet. Every time she goes to the toilet, she goes down to the fourth floor and tries to stand up to the toilet. People often accuse you of soiling the toilet again.

Some people are in wheelchairs because of spinal cord injury. Because the skin below the paralyzed plane loses sympathetic innervation, has no heat dissipation effect, and often has a sweat barrier, they should always weigh their body temperature in summer to avoid heatstroke.

The sensory and motor nerves of paraplegic patients are damaged. Simply put, there is no feeling in the lower body. First of all, the nociceptive nerve may not start the protective mechanism. After sitting for a long time, blood vessels are compressed and blood supply is blocked, which easily leads to aseptic necrosis of local tissues and pressure ulcers, commonly known as bedsore GT;

when traveling, their dignity is tested. The embarrassing topic is that they have to face incontinence. They often have more luggage than ordinary people. S: Big bags

Dangers are often hidden. Sitting in wheelchairs, their perspective is lower than that of ordinary people. If the road conditions suddenly change, the risk will often multiply.

Many disabled people stumbled unconsciously because of the sudden steps at the intersection. Their falling posture is often shocking: even people in wheelchairs fall to the ground obliquely, or the wheelchair is turned over directly, which may lead to secondary injuries. Some people break their bones without knowing it.

another situation is also very common: after walking on the sidewalk for a long time, I found that there was no road at the end, so I had to go back the same way, turn to the road and cross with the motor vehicle. This means that once something goes wrong, I have to bear the responsibility of breaking the law. Cheng Zi's good sister had a car accident. At that time, the sidewalk was blocked and she was forced to move to the road. A pickup truck rear-ended her and knocked her to the ground.

Wei's Wingless Flying Public Welfare Center once investigated a local park and found that there were five toilets marked barrier-free, and none of them could be used. Some front steps are more than 2 centimeters; Some of them are littered with cleaning tools; Some doors are only 5 centimeters wide, which is much shorter than wheelchairs. A few centimeters difference means the trip is cut off.

people look at plums to quench their thirst, but we look at the toilet and sigh. He smiled helplessly.

In addition, some drivers have poor public awareness and occupy barrier-free access. These vehicles are parked in barrier-free passages without supervision and punishment. Tang Jingxin, Wen's good friend, the former head of Beijing Paraplegic Home, once made two difficulties at the community gate. It was 11o'clock at night. He came to the community in a wheelchair, but the stair door was blocked. -someone put the car in front of the community, leaving only one person's position.

He called the community security. After waiting for more than an hour, the security guard called two or three people, lifted him together with the wheelchair and stuffed him into the gap between the roof and the door.

another time, I was even more helpless. He went out along the corridor, but the door was blocked again. This time, he can't. I didn't even call security. When he picked up the phone, he could only press 12.

Barrier-free facilities convey attitudes towards people with disabilities.

Ji Xun, who loves to travel, has lived in the United States and France for five years and has been to nearly 3 countries alone. In foreign countries, she can drive an electric wheelchair and shuttle on designated roads, sometimes faster than walking. At that time, she often forgot the fact that she was disabled. In Venice, a water city, she found a dock where a wheelchair could land effortlessly. In Morocco, the barrier-free facilities are not up to standard, but the travel agency prepared a movable toilet and bath chair for her before she went to the desert.

After returning home, Ji Xun will be afraid of going out every time. Wherever he goes, there will be a place with several steps, and he may not come down. She had to give up the electric wheelchair. This wheelchair weighs more than 4 kilograms. When you have to ask for help, how do you say to lift it?

hiking is too far away for these people. When flying, there is no specific option for disabled seats when purchasing tickets; Taking the airport bus ferry is another round of tossing. In order to reserve a wheelchair in the cabin, Ji Xun always calls the airline two days in advance. However, there will still be various failures at the scene.

the number of wheelchairs is limited, so you can only take ordinary wheelchairs. This means that they can only take wheelchairs to the end of the covered bridge, and they must be carried from the airport to their seats. Sometimes, their wheelchairs are damaged in air consignment and have to be repaired again.

Many people have had the experience of leaving a disabled person on the tarmac because his car was delayed. In China, in most cases, the transportation for the disabled is more like an elevator, which does not provide all-day shuttle service, but only takes them to the car ferry. They are used to waiting for everyone to leave before getting off the plane. It often takes more than 2 minutes to board a ferry at night. When you go to the car ferry, you may encounter the dissatisfaction of ordinary passengers.

Compared with other public transport, high-speed rail has the following advantages

Most of these people are used to making do in the aisles of ordinary cars. If you have to trouble passengers to change seats, you have to spend money to communicate.

Zou Mi, my wheels are turning. In Chongqing, accessibility is in charge.