1) international news

Federal Reserve Chairman Paul is "Hawking": he will still raise interest rates substantially to fight inflation. Speaking at the annual meeting of global central banks held in Jackson Hole, Powell said that the Fed would continue to take "strong" measures to fight inflation, but warned that a strong interest rate hike would bring "pain" to American families and businesses. Powell said that although the Fed has raised interest rates four times in a row, with a cumulative increase of 2.25 percentage points, "there is no room to stop or suspend" and reducing inflation to 2% remains the key goal of the Fed. Until the inflation problem is solved, people should not expect the Fed to dial back soon. History strongly warns against relaxing the policy prematurely. The market expects the Fed's September policy meeting to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

2) Domestic news

Premier the State Council sent a congratulatory letter to Pujiang Innovation Forum in 2022: China will base itself on its own resource endowments, adhere to overall consideration, give full play to the supporting and leading role of scientific and technological innovation, promote the revolution of energy consumption, supply, technology and system, ensure energy supply, and promote carbon neutrality at the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in an orderly manner.

3) Industry news

In the first seven months of this year, China's industrial enterprises above designated size realized profits of 4,892.95 billion yuan, down 1. 1% year-on-year. In terms of industries, the mining industry continued to support the profit growth of industrial enterprises, and the profits of the automobile industry rebounded rapidly. The data shows that in July, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 77.8% year-on-year, making it one of the fastest growing industries.

Second, the daily income of the outer disk

Third, the main varieties of early comments

1) Finance

Stock index

Stock index: US stocks fell sharply, and A shares fluctuated on the last trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 929,654.38+0.9 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds was 565.438+0.5 billion yuan. On August 25th, the financing balance decreased by 3.073 billion yuan to 65.438+0.526287 billion yuan. Due to weak economic data and strengthened policies, the central bank lowered the MLF and OMO interest rates in August. From a technical point of view, the trend of each index is still weak, mainly because the expectation of future economic fundamentals is weakened. Since the adjustment range of SSE 50 and CSI 300 Index since July is greater than that of CSI 500 and CSI 1000, it is not excluded that the heavyweights may strengthen in stages in the future. On the whole, we believe that the index is still dominated by range shocks, and short-term suggestions are to wait and see.

national debt

National debt: It rose slightly, and the yield of 10-year national debt rose by 0.32bp to 2.66%. Last week, the central bank's open market completely hedged the due funds, and the short-term Shibor went up, and the funds converged. After the interest rate cut, the funds are no longer loose. Outbreaks continue to recur all over the country, and the the State Council executive meeting has continuously deployed 19 policies and measures to stabilize the economy, including adding 300 billion yuan of policy development tools and 500 billion yuan of special debts to strengthen the foundation of economic recovery and development. The chairman of the Federal Reserve said that it will still raise interest rates substantially, and reducing inflation to 2% is still the key goal, and the yield of US bonds has rebounded slightly. At present, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has been at a historical low. With the continuous introduction of stable economic policies, LPR has been lowered many times, the financing cost of the real economy has been continuously reduced, and the effect of wide credit will gradually appear. It is expected that there will be limited room for the price of national debt to continue to rise in the future, and there will be adjustment pressure. In operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or try to be short.

2) Power on

crude oil

Crude oil: The possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will curb oil prices. Powell warned on Friday that as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat the high level of inflation in 2008, Americans will enter a painful period of slow economic growth and possible rising unemployment rate. This speech used his most straightforward language to tell people the challenges that the American economy will face. Like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates has become the latest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to support the "reduction of oil production". Earlier, Richard Itoua, the rotating chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Congo's oil minister, said that Saudi Arabia's new idea of reducing production was "consistent with our views and goals. However, the premise of OPEC's production reduction will be the return of Iranian production capacity. Short-term oil prices are mainly weak downward.

methyl alcohol

Methanol: Methanol rose by 0.8 1% at night. This week, the average start-up load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant was 7 1.06%, which was 3. 17 percentage points higher than last week. This week, the restart time of China Coal Plant was extended, and the rest changed little. Domestic CTO/MTO devices began to rebound as a whole. As of August 25th, the start-up load of domestic methanol plant was 62.85%, which was 1.08 percentage points lower than last week and 7.03 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overall, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 9610.7 million tons, down 49,500 tons from last week, with a decrease of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The available supply of methanol in the whole coastal area is estimated to be about 294,000 tons. It is estimated that from August 26th to September 6th, 1 1, the volume of imported goods in coastal areas will be 498,300-500,000 tons.

asphalt

Asphalt: The main contract of asphalt continued diving on Friday, 22 12. At night, it closed at 3,889 yuan per ton, slightly down by 20 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 0.9 1%. Last week, the National People's Congress decided to adjust the balance of more than 300 billion policy financial bonds and 500 billion special bonds, and the finance continued to exert its strength. Recently, crude oil has fluctuated greatly, but at present, the main pricing logic has returned to domestic fundamentals. From August 19 to August 26th, the average spot price of domestic Shandong manufacturers decreased from 4,483 yuan/ton to 4,439 yuan/ton. During the period, the price decreased by 0.99%, and the price increased by 4.0 1% month on month, up by 30.06% year on year. On the supply side, judging from the operating rate of the refinery provided by Baichuan, after the profit of the refinery began to rise, the operating rate also increased significantly from the bottom. The latest research predicts that the operating rate of the refinery will be greatly improved in early September. On the demand side, high asphalt prices still suppress speculative demand, and the market has some differences on the speed of securities landing. Follow up to observe whether the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to escalate and whether there is an incremental policy in infrastructure. In operation, it is suggested to appropriately short 22 12 and increase 2306 contracts, and be cautious as a whole.

pulp

Pulp: The main contract of pulp fell back on Friday night. In July, domestic pulp imports continued to decline, and the short-term supply side still had some support. The newly announced quotation of softwood pulp outer disk is lowered, the cost end support is weakened, and the downward space of pulp price is gradually opened. The acceptance of high-priced raw materials in domestic downstream is low, and the profit of finished paper is maintained at a very low level. Under the macro-weakening background, it is expected that the pulp market demand will not be too optimistic, but the short-term tight supply pattern has not changed, and the pulp price range fluctuates mainly from 6200 to 6700.

rubber

Rubber: last week, the trend of rubber fell, raw rubber was relatively strongly affected by rainfall, and futures were weak, with a significant decline. Under the background of global economic recession, overseas demand is expected to be weak and domestic demand has not improved. If the supply side continues to be stable and the price is not supported by effective fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak.

polyolefin

Polyolefin (LL, PP): Linear LL, partly increased by 50 for Sinopec, and stable for PetroChina. Coal chemical industry 7740 reached the source and the transaction rebounded. Take PP, Sinopec is stable, and PetroChina is stable. 7850 Tongda source, the transaction is average. Polyolefin futures continued to rebound on Friday. Fundamental angle Since August, the supply of polyolefin has contracted, the terminal operating rate has started to pick up, and the upstream inventory has improved. The delivery in recent months is approaching, and the rebound of far-month contracts is still subject to macro expectations and spot price fluctuations in recent months. However, under the consumption stimulus policy, macro expectations and physical demand have improved, and the current rebound of polyolefin 1 contract futures is expected to continue.

polyester

Polyester: PTA oscillates weakly, and MEG oscillates and rebounds. On the cost side, the price of crude oil in the United States rebounded, mainly due to wide fluctuations. The start-up load of downstream polyester plants remained low, and the demand was further weakened. In industry, PTA began to pick up, but there were still many maintenance devices. The reduction of ethylene glycol supply will boost the price, and there may be a restart device later. Downstream polyester started smoothly, the market consumption demand is still poor, and the production and sales are insufficient. In terms of inventory, PTA continued to go to the warehouse, and Meg Port went to the warehouse slightly. On the whole, the downstream consumption is insufficient, paying attention to the change of cost end and polyester demand.

3) Black

steel products

Steel: Standing at the end of August, the impact of the pace of overseas interest rate hikes on the 10 contract in recent months will gradually give way to the performance in the peak season of domestic supply and demand. The sharp drop in the total amount of new construction during the year restricts the absolute height of thread demand, and the demand elasticity of internal thread table will be limited. When the supply elasticity is greater than the demand, it is difficult for the finished products to get out of the positive feedback of the price and profit growth trend during the year. But in the short term, under the time window when profits are compressed and demand is facing seasonal replenishment, it is possible to change from supply-led to demand-led, and prices also have some support in this process. Thread 10 contract rebound drive still exists, but the space may be limited.

ironstone

Iron ore: the price of the night plate fell slightly. Fundamentally speaking, the supply side of iron ore is expected to contract strongly, while steel mills resume production faster, the output of molten iron is expected to run at a high level, and the accumulation of imported iron ore ports is expected to be lower than expected. On the surface, the current valuation is relatively reasonable. The previous price rebound was mainly to repair two points: one is the collapse of the industry's own emotions, and the other is the weakening of macro expectations. These two negative factors are difficult to be traded again. Compared with the same period of last year, the iron ore crash was caused by the macro and fundamental vibration of the disk under the background of high valuation. However, domestic economic recovery and steady growth are expected to accelerate in the second half of this year, and market prices are expected to show a strong trend.

coal coke

Double focus: the price of night plate drops. In terms of coke, some steel mills control the arrival of goods and intermediate speculative traders leave the market to wait and see, the delivery rhythm of coke enterprises slows down, and the factory is slightly tired. In terms of coking coal, coking steel enterprises kept purchasing on demand, new orders for coal mines decreased, and the transaction price of some coal declined. On the demand side, the current scrap consumption is running at a low level. Driven by steady growth, it is estimated that the average output of molten iron in the second half of the year is expected to exceed 2.2 million tons. On the whole, the market demand for the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and it is expected that the market price will show a strong trend.

Manganese-silicon alloy

Manganese silicon: Last Friday, the manganese silicon 0 1 contract fluctuated strongly, and the final income was 7424 yuan/ton. The market price in Jiangsu rose slightly by 30 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore continues to decline. At present, the spot cost of northern producing areas has dropped to about 7030 yuan/ton, and the industry profit is relatively meager. The southern producing areas are still the pattern of upside-down profits. Recently, some manufacturers have resumed production or plan to resume production, and the daily output level of manganese and silicon has rebounded. Terminal demand is still weak, there is little room for profit expansion of steel mills, it is difficult for crude steel output to increase substantially, and the increase in downstream demand of manganese and silicon may be limited. Recently, the market inventory has been digested slowly, and there is still pressure above the price of manganese and silicon.

silicon steel

Ferrosilicon: Last Friday, the ferrosilicon 10 contract rose strongly, and the final income was 8258 yuan/ton. The price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is raised 100 yuan/ton to 8 100 yuan/ton. Affected by the epidemic in Shaanxi, the price of charcoal rose by 100 yuan/ton, and the average production cost of ferrosilicon rose to about 7650 yuan/ton. The industry profit is acceptable, manufacturers' willingness to resume production has increased, and the daily level of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is still weak, there is little room for profit expansion of steel mills, and it is difficult for the demand for ferrosilicon to increase significantly. On the whole, the process of manufacturers resuming production will weaken the degree of destocking, and the height of price rebound still needs to be treated with caution.

Thermal coal

Thermal coal: A small amount of thermal coal 09 was traded overnight and closed at 8 10 yuan/ton. The 5500K coal price of Qin Port is raised 10 yuan/ton to 12 15 yuan/ton. Affected by the epidemic situation in the producing areas, coal production and shipments have declined recently, and the inventory of Beigang has continued to fall, which has supported coal prices. As the temperature drops, the daily consumption of power plants drops at a high level. However, at present, the output of hydropower is insufficient, and its substitution for thermal power is limited. The demand for power supply in power plants still exists under the condition of high absolute daily consumption. In the medium and long term, under the policy of ensuring supply, coal production and sales are expected to return to a high level. The demand for chemical coal has limited price support, and the power plant has sufficient coal storage, so the upward pressure on coal prices in the market outlook may gradually increase.

4) metal

precious metal

Precious metals: Gold and silver continued to weaken on Friday. Powell continued to maintain hawkish remarks at the annual meeting of the central bank, saying that the federal funds rate will remain at the terminal interest rate for a long time, suppressing the expectation of future interest rate cuts. Recently, under the intensive hawkish remarks of Fed officials, the market revised its original expectation of cutting interest rates next year. In terms of interest rate, the implied expectation of CME federal funds rate on the policy interest rate at the end of the year and next year tends to be stable again. With the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the widening spread between China and the United States, the dollar continues to appreciate. Although inflation peaked in July, it is still at a high level. In the future, gold and silver need to see more evidence that inflation is under control. Gold and silver are mainly short-term shocks, and the future is waiting for the guidance of employment and inflation data in August.

copper

Copper: The price of copper fell slightly on the weekend night, influenced by the inflation control of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell made it clear on Friday that controlling inflation will be at the expense of economic slowdown. In the previous period, the inventory increased slightly, less than 40 thousand tons, and LME inventory decreased slightly. After the sharp drop of copper price in the early stage, global inventory not only did not increase, but decreased, indicating that production and downstream demand were good. The Federal Reserve is still in the cycle of raising interest rates, and the global market is in a phase equilibrium period of macro-negative and industrial bullish. On the one hand, the market is still worried that the Fed's future interest rate hike will lead to a slowdown in the US economy and the uncertainty of future interest rate hikes. On the other hand, there is a slight gap between supply and demand in the industrial chain. In the medium term, it may fluctuate widely and have a strong trend, and it will still be supported by the demand for new energy in the long term. It is suggested to pay attention to domestic epidemic situation, spot demand, downstream construction and inventory.