To achieve sustainable development, we must combine people-oriented and respect for natural laws, and strive to create a good environment for the long-term survival and development of mankind. The utilization rate of resources in China is not satisfactory. Air pollution related to energy burning threatens 40% of the land in China with acid rain, and the PH value of rainwater in 100 cities is very low. If effective measures are not taken, the emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide in China will exceed 40 million tons and 35 million tons respectively in 2020. Therefore, for China, a country with a large population, relatively insufficient resources, weak ecological environment carrying capacity and low energy utilization rate, it is of great economic and social significance to vigorously save energy and improve energy utilization efficiency.
The main means to control the growth of oil consumption is to actively adjust the industrial structure, improve energy efficiency and reduce oil consumption per unit GDP by relying on technological progress and scientific management. We should take the road of resource-saving and sustainable development, regard oil conservation as an important part of the national oil security strategy, and accelerate the establishment of energy-saving oil consumption mode. Therefore, we must actively speed up technological progress, save fuel and reduce consumption; Improve the industrial structure and product structure, compress high energy-consuming industries, eliminate high energy-consuming equipment, vigorously develop the production of high value-added products, and popularize the application of new processes and technologies; Accelerate the formulation of preferential policies to guide and encourage enterprises and consumers to use other clean energy sources.
We should attach great importance to improving the petroleum safety management system. Faced with the increasing demand for oil, it is necessary for China to establish an institution to coordinate energy policies and take charge of energy, and it is also urgent to introduce some coordinated laws and regulations aimed at energy security, so as to encourage fuel conservation and curb ineffective and inefficient oil consumption. Some practices of western countries are worth learning. Japan has enacted the Law on Promoting the Development and Utilization of Petroleum Alternative Energy, which strictly restricts high oil consumption projects and encourages energy-saving measures, and achieved good results. China should learn and study the advanced experience of other countries, and strive to enact a perfect, detailed and operable petroleum law as soon as possible, so as to overcome all kinds of drawbacks in the supervision of the petroleum industry and realize the supervision of the petroleum industry according to law.
Second, strive to use a variety of energy sources and effectively develop alternative energy sources.
Petroleum security strategy is not isolated, but an integral part of the country's overall energy strategy. From the whole energy strategy, we should consider the proportional relationship between oil and other energy sources, optimize the energy structure, reduce the proportion of oil in the energy structure, and vigorously develop natural gas and other alternative energy sources (such as nuclear energy, wind energy, hydropower, etc.). ), realize the diversification of energy structure, gradually reduce the dependence of the national economy on oil, and ease the tight oil supply situation. The development of alternative energy can not only enhance the anti-risk ability of China's energy system, but also ensure a place in the future international energy industry competition. The new alternative energy can also meet the energy demand of the population in rural areas and reduce the over-exploitation of forests and the destruction of vegetation.
At present, the development of alternative energy in China is still a weak link. Although China is a big country with water resources, its current development rate is only 15%, which is far below the world average and lags behind developing countries such as India, Brazil and Viet Nam, with great development potential. Nuclear energy is an important alternative energy source in developed countries. At present, it only accounts for 1.2% of China's energy structure, and both Japan and France exceed 30%. Therefore, China should actively develop nuclear energy, and strive to reach 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed capacity by 2020, accounting for 4% of the total power generation. China is rich in renewable energy resources (including small hydropower, solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy), but its development lags behind due to high cost, small scale and lack of incentive policies. Actively developing renewable energy can replace fossil fuels in the long run and solve the energy consumption problem in remote rural areas in the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way in the short term. In the next 20 years, China will take shape of renewable energy, laying the foundation for replacing fossil fuels on a larger scale in the future. China should also vigorously promote the development of alternative energy sources, such as ocean energy, hydrogen energy, fuel cells and bio-liquid fuel.
Third, establish a strategic system of petroleum safety reserve as soon as possible and increase the safety factor.
In order to reduce the impact of oil insecurity and enhance the ability to resist the possible oil crisis, the establishment of a strategic petroleum reserve system will be an important means to ensure the supply of China oil market and stabilize the price. This has been confirmed by the practice of the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries.
At present, there are three ways of strategic oil reserve in the world, namely, national reserve, institutional reserve and enterprise reserve. National reserve means that the state pays the reserve budget and exercises absolute control over the reserve oil; Institutional reserve means that the reserve obligation is borne by public or private institutions or organizations, and operators pay a certain proportion of special use fees to the institutions for them to bear the reserve expenses; Enterprise reserve means that oil operators are responsible for fulfilling their reserve obligations, or making reserves themselves, or entrusting another operator with the right to use reserves in the form of written guarantee. In the early days, all the funds for the establishment of strategic oil reserves in the United States were borne by the state finance. Starting from 1995, we will lease the storage facilities to domestic enterprises and seek cooperation in oil reserves abroad. More than half of France's oil reserves are undertaken by the French Petroleum Strategic Reserve Industry Committee (CPSSP) through franchising, and the rest are the reserves of ownership or use rights made by oil operators. South Korea, on the other hand, adopts the system of sharing reserves with oil-producing countries, and at the same time agrees to lease oil storage equipment, which not only makes use of domestic oil storage equipment in South Korea as much as possible to obtain rent and solve the problem of insufficient reserve funds, but also gives the South Korean government priority in obtaining oil supply without any financial burden. Japan's strategic oil reserves are divided into government strategic reserves and private commercial reserves. At present, Japan is seeking a flexible way to store oil, that is, first supply the oil storage base in Okinawa to China or ASEAN countries willing to cooperate, and then select suitable sites in the Philippines and Spike Bay in Thailand on the basis of ASEAN's consent, and Japan will provide technology and funds to jointly build a new oil storage base.
China can learn from international experience to establish a strategic petroleum reserve system. At the initial stage, it is advisable to combine the national strategic reserve with the commercial reserve of enterprises, give full play to the role of the state, relevant departments and enterprises, and implement the oil reserve strategy with state participation as the main body and domestic oil reserves as the supplement. The main purpose of the national strategic oil reserve is to ensure the uninterrupted supply of national oil in the event of war, natural disasters or other emergencies, and at the same time, it can also play a role in stabilizing the abnormal fluctuation of domestic oil prices. Enterprise commercial reserves can not only ensure the average inventory of national oil reserves, but also play a role in stabilizing market supply, stabilizing people's hearts and alleviating the abnormal fluctuation of domestic oil prices at critical moments. Moreover, the commercial reserves of enterprises are carried out on the premise of self-financing, which reduces the huge financial burden of the state in establishing strategic oil reserves.
Based on the concern and understanding of China's oil safety, China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "CAO") has begun to try to reserve oil for enterprises, and boldly put forward the "golden channel" and "golden triangle" oil development strategies by making use of the right time and the right place. In order to achieve this strategic goal, CAO aimed at the UAE National Oil Company and established a strategic alliance with it. On March 23rd, 2004, China Aviation Oil Co., Ltd. signed two memorandums of understanding on cooperation with the United Arab Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) and its subsidiary in Singapore. According to the memorandum, China Aviation Oil Co., Ltd. will acquire a 20% stake in Dubai Oil Tank Farm in the Middle East, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ENOC. At the same time, CAO will set up a joint venture with Horizon Company to build a 500,000 cubic meter oil storage tank farm and two supporting deep-water terminals in Singapore before 2006 1 October1. China Aviation Oil Co., Ltd. cooperated with ENOC and jointly invested with Horizon to build a super-large oil depot in Singapore, which will enable the company to set foot in the oil storage business and gradually utilize the world oil resources, which will help stabilize the domestic oil sources. The establishment of oil storage facilities abroad can also spread the storage risks and reduce the national investment burden. This is a new attempt by Chinese-funded enterprises to actively go abroad, master more overseas oil resources and establish enterprise reserves.
The total amount of China's oil safety reserves must be determined step by step according to China's actual national conditions and economic affordability, drawing on the successful experience of other countries. Data show that the actual storage of crude oil in the United States has reached 750 million barrels, which can meet the consumption of 158 days. Japan's oil reserves are equivalent to 160 days of imports. EU countries have established a strategic oil reserve equivalent to 90 days' import. According to this and the situation in China, China needs to establish a strategic oil reserve system with oil consumption of at least 60 days. This goal can be achieved step by step from small to large.
Petroleum reserve is a very complicated problem, involving a wide range and huge investment. According to the calculation, if the annual processing capacity is 200 million tons, the starting reserve of 15 days needs at least 8 million tons. Even if it is calculated according to the CIF price of $35 per barrel, it will cost more than 23 billion yuan, and the supporting system engineering will cost at least 33 billion yuan. Therefore, it should be mainly funded by the government and raised by the government and the people through multiple channels. We can learn from Japan, Germany and other countries and solve the problem by issuing long-term national debt, allocating funds, establishing reserve funds and designing new taxes.
Fourth, make full use of the international oil market and establish a diversified overseas oil supply system.
Most of China's crude oil imports come from the Middle East and Africa. It is expected that the proportion of oil imported from the Middle East and Africa will continue to maintain a high level in the next few years. However, the Middle East and Africa are the main areas where the current international political and economic situation is turbulent, with constant armed conflicts and frequent terrorist incidents, which cannot but have a serious impact on the oil market. At present, most of the crude oil imported by China is transported by sea, accounting for about 98% of the import volume. China must find and form a diversified oil supply market, and put energy imports from neighboring oil-producing countries in a more important position. One of the basic conclusions of the research report entitled "China Seeking Energy Security" by RAND Corporation of the United States is that China cannot put all its eggs in one basket. At present, China's dependence on foreign countries should be limited to 1/3, and at the same time, efforts should be made to import oil from neighboring countries.
We should actively implement the "going out" strategy, use our technology and capital to develop oil in countries such as Africa and South America, earn foreign exchange, and then use these foreign exchange to buy oil from production areas with less transportation risks. At present, when utilizing overseas oil resources, China should not only conduct spot and futures transactions in the international market by enterprises designated by the government, but also strengthen cooperation with foreign countries in the field of exploration and development.
China should strengthen the observation and prediction of international oil price fluctuations, collect information extensively, make careful analysis, and make correct judgments and choices. Generally speaking, the world is not short of oil in a certain period of time, and the key to the problem lies in the determination of the balance between supply and demand. At present, China has almost no say in international oil pricing, so the insecurity factor of oil supply remains high. Therefore, we should establish our own oil futures market in time, strive for the pricing power of international oil prices, and change from the current defense system to the active system. The fluctuating international oil market is not in China's economic interests. China should assume the responsibility of being an economic power for the stable development of the international economy.