Main characteristics of financial market development in China in 2008
The scale of the financial market continued to grow, reaching the highest level in history.
In 2008, despite the challenges of many unfavorable factors such as the complicated and changeable economic and financial situation at home and abroad, China's financial market maintained a rapid development momentum. On the basis of rapid expansion in 2007, the scale of financial market continued to expand and grow in 2008. Except for the stock market, the turnover of other sub-markets increased significantly year-on-year. By the end of 1 1, the cumulative turnover of China's financial market was 198.99 trillion yuan (including interbank lending market, repurchase market, bond market, gold market, stock market and futures market), an increase of 3 1% compared with the same period in 2007, reaching the highest level in history (see figure/kloc) Among them, the gold market and the inter-bank bond market grew the fastest, increasing by 18 1.24% and 143.9% respectively compared with the same period in 2007. The rapid growth and expansion of financial markets have promoted the position of financial markets in China's economy and financial system.
Financial market prices fluctuated violently, showing a downward trend as a whole.
Compared with the beginning of the year, the overall market price in 2008 showed a downward trend, and the fluctuation was obviously intensified. Among them, the money market interest rate dropped significantly, mainly because with the changes in the domestic economic and financial situation, the monetary and credit policies were adjusted from "tightening" to "moderately easing", and the central bank lowered the bank deposit and loan interest rates several times, which led to the overall downward movement of interest rates, and the money market interest rate continued to fall after September; The stock market experienced a decline of 64. 15% and an amplitude of 7 1.9%. Affected by the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, the global commodity futures market was violently turbulent, and the domestic futures market fell sharply.
Investors have a strong demand for hedging, and the function of financial market has been fully exerted.
In 2008, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes fell deeply, and the "seesaw effect" of the stock market and bond market was fully manifested. The sharp decline in the stock market and the increase in risks have also prompted insurance, funds and other institutions to increase their investment in the bond market, pushing the bond market index to continue to rise. The bond market has played a good role in replacing the stock market, providing investors with diversified choices and opening up another effective way for enterprise financing. In the futures market, investors use the futures hedging mechanism for hedging and risk management, and the functions of the futures market are gradually brought into play; In the context of international economic and financial turmoil, the safe-haven function of the gold market is further highlighted, gold is favored by many investors, and the trading volume of the gold market has jumped sharply; With the increase of financial market uncertainty and the divergence of market judgment on future expectations, derivatives trading is unprecedentedly active. From 1 to1in 2008, the cumulative turnover of bonds in the future was 482.7 billion yuan, up by 1 1 0.9%, and the cumulative turnover of interest rate swaps was 397 billion yuan, up by 997 billion yuan. Affected by the continuous downturn in the stock market, social funds have a great demand for bill financing products, and the bill financing product market presents a pattern of both supply and demand.
Financial market supervision has been strengthened and system construction has been steadily advanced.
In 2008, the market supervision department took a number of measures to strengthen market supervision, guard against and respond to market risks, and the construction of the financial market system progressed steadily. In the bond market, in order to further improve the management of the inter-bank bond market and promote the development of direct debt financing of non-financial enterprises, the People's Bank of China issued the Measures for the Management of Debt Financing Instruments of Non-financial Enterprises in the Inter-bank Bond Market, which highlighted the fundamental role of the market in the allocation of financial resources and marked a major change in the management mode of the inter-bank bond market. In the securities market, the supervision system of securities companies was further improved, and the Regulations on Supervision and Management of Securities Companies and the Regulations on Risk Disposal of Securities Companies were promulgated. Improve the GEM management system and promote the construction of a multi-level capital market system. In response to the deep decline of the stock market, the management has continuously introduced measures to maintain stability, including improving the dividend system, raising refinancing standards, issuing exchangeable corporate bonds, suspending the issuance of new shares, resuming the issuance of medium-term notes in the interbank market, and studying the timely introduction of margin financing and securities lending, which has played a great role in controlling market risks, slowing down market decline and enhancing market confidence. In the futures market, in order to control the market risk caused by the sharp fluctuation of commodity futures prices and prevent the risk from spreading, the management actively intervened in the abnormal market behavior, and the market risk was resolved in time. China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Supervision of Physical Delivery of Commodity Futures, prohibiting overseas futures exchanges and other institutions from designating or setting up commodity futures delivery warehouses and engaging in other activities related to commodity futures delivery business in China, so as to ensure the smooth operation of China's commodity futures market.
Development prospect of financial market in 2009
At present, the development of financial market is in the most important opportunity period, and at the same time it faces the challenges brought by external environmental changes such as the gradual spread of the international financial crisis to the real economy and the slowdown of domestic economic growth. In 2009, it is necessary to further strengthen the basic system construction of financial markets, improve market supervision, actively and steadily promote financial market innovation, guard against financial risks, ensure the safe operation of financial markets, and promote the sustained, stable and healthy development of financial markets.
The scale of the financial market will continue to maintain a balanced and rapid growth.
In recent years, with the continuous growth of the trading volume and market scale of the financial market, the financial market has become an important platform for various market entities to manage the surplus and deficiency of funds, invest and finance, and its position and role in economic development and financial system are increasing. With the decline of external demand, the slowdown of economic growth and the increase of financial risks, the trading volume of interbank lending market, bond market, gold market and futures market has maintained continuous growth, and the market has paid attention to the concept of safe operation, and its awareness of risk prevention and ability to resist risks have gradually improved. At present, the financial market has entered a new stage of development. In 2009, under the active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the bond market, especially the issuance of credit bonds, will greatly increase, and the financing function of the bond market will be greatly expanded. The futures market will also play a more active role in promoting the establishment of liquidity order in the spot market, promoting the adjustment of agricultural structure and the reform of grain circulation system. The trading volume of each financial sub-market will continue to grow steadily, and the participation and activity of financial market participants will continue to increase.
Financial market innovation is still the driving force of market development.
The lack of financial innovation in China has affected the operational efficiency of the financial system to some extent. On the one hand, the real economy has a large number of unsatisfied capital needs, on the other hand, there are a large number of funds operating inefficiently. At present, the existing financial derivatives are still in the primary stage, and it is difficult to meet the multi-level investment needs of domestic investors. Enhance the competitiveness of traditional industries through financial innovation, vigorously develop a variety of financial products under the condition that the risk of credit and leverage amplification is controllable, form a layout with a reasonable structure in which a variety of products coexist, and enrich the choice of financial markets. However, in the future, China's financial innovation should still focus on traditional and basic financial products, and those derivatives with too complicated combination, too long sales chain and too difficult pricing should be carefully introduced to avoid excessive innovation and become speculative tools. To promote financial innovation, we must pay attention to strengthening the supporting construction of risk management and control mechanism, strictly control the upper limit of leveraged transactions when formulating various policies, avoid excessive use of leverage, and avoid the spread of single market risks to other markets. In the future, we will further enrich the financial market product system, continue to promote the innovation of money market tools, and actively promote the innovation of bond varieties with risk-return matching. Further optimize the financing structure and provide more tools for financing of non-financial enterprises. Gradually introduce more interest rates, exchange rates and credit derivatives to facilitate market participants to manage risks.
Inter-departmental financial market supervision and cooperation are increasingly strengthened.
Today, with the globalization of financial markets, financial innovation and increasingly complex financial derivatives, the boundaries between traditional financial markets are increasingly blurred, and inter-departmental supervision coordination and cooperation have become increasingly important. Prudent and effective market supervision has obviously become an important guarantee for China's financial market to enhance its ability to resist risks and effectively resist external shocks. At present, from the perspective of risk prevention, we should strengthen the basic system construction of financial markets, improve market supervision, and strive to maintain the stability of financial markets and national financial security. Learn from international experience and lessons, establish new supervision concepts, methods, objectives and evaluation standards, gradually establish a unified, efficient and all-round market supervision system, and constantly improve financial supervision measures and means to better reflect the dynamic efficiency and flexibility of financial supervision; Strengthen supervision and coordination, prevent supervision from overlapping, omission or absence, and ensure the safe and stable operation of the financial system and financial market. At the same time, efforts should be made to create a good financial innovation environment, so that the system construction and supervision level of the financial market can adapt to the pace of financial innovation, and the income and risk protection of innovative products can be guaranteed; Attention should be paid to cultivating and developing institutional investors who can bear specific risks; It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies and other intermediaries, enhance the transparency and rating level of credit rating agencies, and create conditions for providing fair prices of financial derivatives.
The field of financial market opening will be broadened.
At present, China has been deeply integrated into the process of internationalization and is highly dependent on the world market. The international financial crisis is bound to have a certain impact on China's opening up, but China's financial market opening up strategy has not changed. Moreover, from this financial crisis, we can further understand the supervision and innovation of overseas financial markets and accumulate experience and reference for the construction and opening up of China's financial markets. On the basis of comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of the opening policy and strengthening the monitoring of short-term cross-border capital flows, we can improve and effectively implement the financial market opening strategy and promote market opening in an orderly and prudent manner. Gradually broaden the financing channels and investment access of overseas financial institutions in the domestic financial market, and support qualified domestic institutions to "go global" to participate in international financial market activities, but foreign investment must be prudent, supervision must be strengthened, and the system must be complete. The capital market should also introduce long-term capital in an orderly and gradual manner instead of short-term speculative capital. With the deepening of opening to the outside world, China's financial market will be further internationalized. (Author Zhou: China People's Bank Shanghai Headquarters)