These three articles are the prefaces of these three books. The three prefaces are written in 1994, 1997, and 20 10, respectively, and the span is not small, from which we can clearly see the change of Mr. Ding's views on technical analysis.
Teacher Ding pointed out in the preface of the book Futures Market that in the face of the market, the decisions made by individuals are nothing more than basic analysis and technical analysis. Technical analysis is empirical analysis, and basic analysis belongs to large-scale theoretical analysis, which is not suitable for individuals. He clearly wrote: "So, at least for ordinary traders, basic analysis is not operational."
This one is shorter than the first two prefaces. I wonder if Mr. Ding's understanding of technical analysis at that time was not as profound as later. After all, there were few books available for study and reference at that time. But at that time, he had put forward a view that technical analysis is experience, similar to swimming, and we should learn in practice and verify it in practice. This view is of great benefit to us. Beginners who want to enter the market need to practice with small funds first, that is, they are afraid of drowning.
It is also through this metaphor that Teacher Ding Shengyuan put forward for the first time that "water is a summary of experience, not science, but it cannot be denied that water is the most important support for human survival in water, which is practical and effective, which is the characteristic of technical analysis." Teacher Ding used swimming to explain that technical analysis is not science, but experience and effectiveness, which is groundbreaking. But if we take swimming as an analogy today, the water quality feels more appropriate than the disk surface, and the technical analysis should be more appropriate than the swimming theory. Of course, the latter is easier said than done, but it was more difficult to put forward such a view 20 years ago.
Three years later, it can be seen from the preface of Japanese Candle Map that Mr. Ding has carried out a lot of technical analysis experiments based on the last book and his own experience. While continuing to support technical analysis, Mr. Ding also gave more cases to support himself and put forward his own views on various schools of technical analysis (probably from the trading experience in these three years).
In this preface, he first affirmed the advanced points of candle drawing technology, and at the same time put forward his own point of view: a single technical analysis method or index is not enough to beat the market. It is necessary to synthesize enough indicators to verify each other, eliminate the false and retain the true, in order to get the best results. The preface writes: "To analyze the market, it is best to cover everything first and catch all the market information. Then, I can sort out the whole symphony and finally pick out the melody that suits me. "
In this preface, Mr. Ding's views on the technical analysis of various indicators of various factions have obviously increased, but it also shows the confusion that indicators cannot accurately predict the market. At that time, his handling method was to collect as many indicators as possible (as far away from each other as possible), verify each other and improve accuracy.
According to recent theories and viewpoints, this multi-index mutual verification can not bring higher accuracy, but at that time, multi-index verification was also an inevitable choice to climb the peak of technical analysis.
The two prefaces are separated by about three years, which is not a long time. Teacher Ding also experienced the process from not being proficient in technical analysis to learning from various schools. During this period, he basically showed his recognition of the view that "technical analysis is more useful than basic analysis, and technical analysis can predict the market".
It has been 13 years and 20 10 years since the preface of the book Financial Markets. At this time, Mr. Ding's point of view has obviously changed. This change is not that he no longer believes in technical analysis. On the contrary, after thirteen years' experience, Mr. Ding's technical analysis theory and practice are more complete. The difference is that he has become a firm trend trader. He no longer pursues mutual verification. He believes that the simpler the indicators, the better. At the same time, he no longer regards technical analysis as a crystal ball to predict the market, but as a touchstone to discover trends.
He wrote in the book:
"The purpose of technical analysis is not to predict the market, but to require traders to respond according to the current market situation." The market is unpredictable, and technical analysis is only responsible for helping users determine the "current market situation".
It is difficult for us to make technical analysis and forecast the market. However, technical analysis has certain accuracy in confirming various market trends. I wrote an article "Learn graphics and run for your life". My experience proves that technical analysis is helpful for judging obvious trends, and even beginners can master some simple methods.
"The less ingredients any tool artificially adds, the closer it is to the market. In other words, the simpler and more concise the tool, the more suitable it is to observe the market and reveal the facts. " This is also the feeling that Teacher Ding has simplified the complex and returned to the original.
In the ups and downs of 13, at the end of this preface, Mr. Ding also put forward the triple realm of "one" versus "many" and "many" versus "one", which coincides with the state when Mr. Ding wrote these three prefaces himself.
In this preface, Teacher Ding reiterated the viewpoint put forward in 1994 six years ago. He said: "Technical analysis is not a science, but a craft. It is a set of action essentials-rules of experience-that market participants summarize and refine according to their own trading practices and survive in the market."
This proves once again that technical analysis can't rely solely on reading books, but it still needs to be knocked out in the market by itself.
In this process, we must be careful, because we must survive.
Anyway, Mr. Ding has made great contributions to the spread of technical analysis in China, and his translation is quite standard. I read his book, which was very comfortable and rewarding.