Regarding the judgment of this indicator, Huixin believes that generally speaking, if non-agricultural employment is higher than expected, it will benefit the US dollar, the US dollar index will rise, and gold will fall under pressure; On the contrary, it will not be conducive to the US dollar, and the US dollar index will fall, boosting gold. Second, the impact of unemployment rate on gold is theoretically contrary to non-agricultural employment data, but in fact it is mainly non-agricultural employment data.
But the above are just general operating principles, and the market situation is ever-changing. Sometimes the data is basically in line with expectations and may have limited impact on the market; Sometimes the data is too good or too bad, which may be contrary to the above analysis ideas. The non-agricultural employment data was much better than expected, which further reduced the safe-haven demand of the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell. Sometimes the weakness outside the non-farm payrolls data may trigger risk aversion and market concerns, which will make the dollar rebound. Therefore, pure economic data should be considered in combination with factors such as stock market, commodities and market reaction degree.
What's the relationship between gold and dollars?
First of all, we should have a clear understanding of the relationship between gold and the US dollar, because gold is priced in US dollars, and because the initiator of Jamaica Agreement, which put gold on the stage of monetary history, is the United States, and because the US gold reserve is more than 8,000 tons, ranking first among all countries and organizations. Therefore, the trend of the dollar has always been the weather vane of gold, and the historical and traditional relationship between the two is negatively correlated. The strength of the US dollar and the weakness of gold made gold rise from more than 500 US dollars to a historical high of 1.032 US dollars. However, we also see that since the outbreak of the financial crisis, there is sometimes a positive correlation between gold and the dollar, and the positive and negative trends make ordinary investors lose their dependence on the judgment of the gold price trend.
What is the impact of US non-agricultural data on the US dollar?
The impact of American non-agricultural data on the dollar is transmitted to the gold market, and the magnitude of the two will definitely be inconsistent. Therefore, the results of non-agricultural data in the United States will first affect the trend of the US dollar and have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. The trend of gold is passive almost at the same time, which means that it is too late to enter the market when the non-agricultural data is released. At the same time, there is also a time lag to decide the direction and approach of buying and selling gold according to the quality of the data. Therefore, it is recommended that spot gold investors go before the data is released. After the release of non-agricultural data, it is often full of shocks. The more you suck, the greater the instantaneous fluctuations.
What is the impact of non-agricultural data on gold prices?
The impact of non-agricultural data on gold price involves the impact on the basic trend, but is it the news that affects the price or the price confirmation news? More importantly, Huixin is not here to discuss that. Non-agricultural data must have a certain impact on gold prices. When the non-agricultural uncertain data changes, we must first judge the trend of gold itself. Combining the fundamental factors that affect the gold price with the technical trend, the key should be to consider the technical influence before the release of non-agricultural data, that is to say, it is very important to know where the technical gold price trend is. Any news will be confirmed in the technical trend. The function of technical analysis is to reveal and warn the future trend in advance, and the news only confirms or proves the trend after the non-agricultural announcement.
What should investors pay attention to in a rapidly changing market?
First of all, the relationship between non-agricultural and gold does not always follow a similar pattern: "The number of non-agricultural employees is higher than expected, the dollar rebounds and gold falls; On the contrary, the general idea of "rising" runs, and special circumstances still exist. Sometimes non-agriculture is super good, risk preference makes the dollar rise instead of falling, and gold rises instead of falling; Sometimes the data is poor, the dollar is boosted by risk aversion and rises instead of falling, while gold rises instead of falling. The key factor is the risk preference of investors.
Second, there are many factors that affect the skyrocketing and plunging of gold. When non-agricultural data is released, it does not necessarily play a leading role in the trend of gold prices. Even if the non-agricultural data is "powerful", the impact on the dollar and gold is likely to be a dynamic process or even a roller coaster evolution.
Third, although the impact of non-agriculture on the trend of gold prices is significant, it is short-lived, generally speaking, it is more intense within half an hour after the data is released, but it will last until next Monday at most.