Economic principles tell us that excess liquidity will bring inflation. We are faced with sufficient money supply and CPI which is expected to turn positive soon.
A new round of family fortune Defence War has started.
How far are we from inflation?
As an indicator to judge the inflation rate, China CPI has been negative for five consecutive months since February this year. Before the release of economic data in July this year, although many institutions expected that the CPI growth rate would continue to be negative this month, it was generally believed that it would turn positive in the fourth quarter. In addition, the central bank has repeatedly reiterated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, which makes inflation concerns heating up.
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"Inflation will appear as early as the end of the year"
"A new round of inflation will come at the end of this year," Han Xiuyun, an associate professor at Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and a senior researcher at China Economic Research Center in Tsinghua, said in an interview.
In Han Xiuyun's view, China's economy is gradually coming out of the trough. Under the dual efforts of fiscal policy and monetary policy, the GDP growth rate shows a trend of "low before and then high", and it is not difficult to achieve the goal of "eight guarantees" every quarter. "I think that we only need to prevent inflation here, including imported and endogenous inflation." She said.
Specifically, the depreciation of the US dollar led to an increase in the prices of oil, gold and commodities, and the prices of these resources in China went up. For example, if the price of iron ore rises, the price of steel will rise, and the price of real estate will also rise, because real estate construction needs steel.
"And rising real estate prices will in turn lead to rising resource prices-rising house prices will lead to rising steel prices, iron ore prices and cement prices, while rising production materials prices will also lead to rising consumer goods prices. Therefore, as long as the price of bulk commodities goes up, it will inevitably lead to the upward price of our consumer goods, and inflation will come. " She said.
Han Xiuyun pointed out that although the rise of CPI and the expansion of capital market cannot be equated, they are mutually conductive and have certain internal relations. "For example, although the house price itself is not included in the CPI, after the domestic demand is stimulated, everyone's demand for real estate will increase, which will lead to the increase of our prices of coal, electricity and water, as well as the increase of house rent, which are related to the basic necessities of ordinary people and are also included in the CPI."
According to Han Xiuyun's judgment, inflation will appear as early as the end of the year: "When the economy goes out of the bottom, it is not deflation but inflation that should be prevented. At first, it will be structural inflation, and then it will turn into comprehensive inflation with rising resource prices around the beginning of next year. "
It is worth noting that in the report released on the evening of August 5, the central bank warned in a stern tone of "a new round of asset price bubbles and hyperinflation" that may occur in the process of global economic recovery, paying attention to both the risks of excessive domestic credit and the external risks faced by domestic economic recovery.
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"Even if it appears, it will be at least next year."
However, some scholars believe that it is still too early to say inflation, at least next year.
Yuan Jian, an independent financial commentator, said in an interview that at present, the CPI data in the third and fourth quarters may turn positive, but according to his judgment, it is unlikely to cause inflation so far this year, and it is hard to say next year.
"At present, there is indeed a large asset price inflation in the financial market, and there is a bubble in the stock market and the property market, but this is different from CPI growth. Generally speaking, we think that currency issuance will lead to serious inflation. Although the shortage of various resources and commodities is a long-term trend, the flood of money may indeed cause inflation at an appropriate time, but now these currencies have been absorbed and digested by the expanding capital market and will not affect the price part for the time being. " He said.
In Yuan Jian's view, inflation is not our primary concern at present, but to what extent the real economy will recover, or whether it will continue to be depressed.
After all, the real economy problems such as weak demand and overcapacity are more urgent.
Take measures to prevent inflation
No matter how far inflation is from us, people are always worried about its consequences.
Mr. Zhang, a citizen, used to be a middle school teacher, in his fifties. In the past, his salary hovered at the lower-middle level. He has experienced countless waves of rising prices, big and small, and knows the pain of inflation. "What impressed me was that1in the late 1980s, household appliances ranging from daily necessities to color TV refrigerators were snapped up. That was the first time I was afraid of inflation. "
Looking back at the data at that time, the official inflation rate was as high as 1988, and the price index rose by 34.8%.
Although today's people's income level is not the same as that of a decade or two ago, people are not as sensitive to the price increase of grain and daily consumer goods as in the past, and after the impact of the financial tsunami, we have been experiencing a "happy time" of low inflation this year, but in any case, it is always beneficial to do some appropriate preventive work in advance.
As Han Xiuyun said, ordinary people can make some preparations for the coming inflation at any time: if they have solved the problems of food and education, and still have some money left, they can choose the investment method that suits them according to their own situation-they can buy a house, they can also make other investments, they can buy funds with small money, and they can use intermediate funds to buy stocks and invest in funds. "If you put money in your hand, it will depreciate." She said.
Inflation is not far away, are you ready?
A brief history of inflation in People's Republic of China (PRC) since its founding 60 years ago
The statistical data of China's money stock began in 1952, and the money stock in that year was10130 million yuan.
1958-1960 the first inflation after the founding of the people's Republic of China.
From 1952- 1957, the money growth remained around 10%. 1958 made rapid progress to an average speed of 25%. The stock of 1957 reached197.7 billion yuan, showing the second deflation.
1965-1968 secondary inflation
After three years of natural disasters, deflation appeared for the first time, and then inflation began to rush for the second time from 1965, with an annual growth rate of 14%, reaching 66.69 billion yuan from 1968. 1969 began to adjust.
1970-1979 the third moderate inflation
Keep the growth within10 billion yuan, and control the growth rate within 15% ~ 20%. End the period of "high growth and low inflation" economic development.
1984-1989 inflation of the fourth Mercedes-Benz
After entering the reform and opening up, the growth of new money has reached a new level. Since 1984, the growth rate of money has increased by leaps and bounds from 22%, with an average annual growth of more than150 billion yuan. In 1989, the money stock reached120 billion yuan.
The fifth inflation 1994 -200 1
From 65438 to 0994, the monetary growth exceeded one trillion, up 34.6% from the previous month, and the average growth rate in the next seven years was around 39%. 200 1, and the money stock reached1528.88 billion yuan.
The sixth relatively stable inflation in 2002 -2004
In 2002, the monetary growth began to exceed 3 trillion yuan, and in 2004, the monetary stock reached 25,320.7 billion yuan. In the same period, the growth rate of money declined, with an average annual growth rate of 33.3%.
Comprehensive arrangement of weekly financial management report
Ten rules to prevent inflation:/logs/logs/45618940.html.
10 code for preventing inflation-1 save less and invest more.
10 anti-inflation rule -2 three preferred categories of buying stocks
10 rules to prevent inflation -3. Keep pace with the central bank's interest rate adjustment.
10 inflation prevention code -4. Buy a house with scarcity.
Preventing inflation 10 code -5 Holding foreign currency with commodity attributes
10 inflation prevention code -6 global resource allocation
10 anti-inflation code -7 buy gold and watch the trend of the dollar.
Prevent inflation 10 code -8 Appropriate liabilities from becoming "beneficiaries"
10 inflation prevention code -9. Intelligent calculation of exchange rate for studying abroad
10 anti-inflation code-10 Buy insurance to upgrade savings in disguise.