Due to the recent rapid rise in commodity prices, it has brought great pressure on manufacturing costs, and the downward adjustment of RRR is conducive to alleviating the short-term cost pressure of enterprises. Second, judging from the operation of the central bank's monetary policy tools, the maturity of MLF in the third quarter was as high as10.7 trillion, and it is a routine operation to release low-cost funds to replace MLF through RRR reduction. Third, under the pressure of export and real estate investment in the second half of the year, RRR's interest rate cut will play a countercyclical role, providing a good liquidity environment for the issuance of local bonds and financial efforts. Finally, before the Fed reduced its size, the stability of RMB exchange rate was poor, and the reduction of RRR will also reduce the short-term appreciation pressure of RMB and avoid large fluctuations in the long-term currency value. Looking back on the monetary policy in recent years, since 20 15, the central bank has repeatedly taken comprehensive measures to reduce the deposit reserve ratio. The deposit reserve ratio of large savings institutions has been reduced from 20% to the current 12%, and monetary easing has been continuously strengthened to cope with the decreasing GDP growth rate. In recent rounds of monetary easing cycles, the performance of various assets is quite different.

1. In the long run, the degree to which various asset prices are affected by the monetary policy cycle varies greatly. Among them, the interest rate bond price has the strongest correlation with monetary policy. Taking the change of treasury bond futures price as an example, it can be clearly seen from the figure that when monetary policy starts a new round of easing cycle, bond prices continue to rise with the fall of market capital interest rate.

Second, from the macro-economic point of view, the relaxation of monetary policy often stems from the intensification of downward pressure on the economy or the occurrence of the Black Swan incident. At this time, the decrease of the overall return on investment in the market or the increase of risk aversion will also be beneficial to the price of interest rate bonds. The rise of commodity prices lags behind the monetary easing cycle to some extent, mainly because the market liquidity is relatively abundant at the end of the monetary easing cycle. After a period of policy stimulus, the market demand is gradually picking up, and the rebalancing of supply and demand will start the rising cycle of commodity prices. From the traditional monetary policy goal, the rebound of inflation also indicates that the central bank has the prerequisite for tightening monetary policy, so the rise of commodity prices often begins at the end of the easing cycle. Judging from the performance of domestic stock indexes,

Thirdly, it is difficult for loose monetary policy to have a sustained positive effect on the stock market, mainly because the influencing factors of stock price are too complicated, and the economic environment, operating conditions or regulatory policies in the same period will have a great impact on stock price, so it is difficult to form a trend index market with a single factor change. From the perspective of individual sectors, the banking sector should focus on it, and its performance will directly benefit from the low-cost funds released by RRR's interest rate cut. However, the RRR cut has not changed the market's expectation that monetary policy will be tightened soon. In the context of financial incentives, the financial sector has not performed well. In the short term, the current economic momentum is slowing down, and the superimposed macro liquidity is not bad. The macro environment is beneficial to the growth and defense sectors, leaving only trading opportunities for cycle and value varieties.