The basic characteristics of Neil’s reverse thinking theory

The reverse thinking method has the following basic characteristics:

1) Reverse thinking opposes accurate prediction and believes that social and economic phenomena have Unpredictability.

2) Reverse thinking requires maintaining the diversity and flexibility of perspectives.

3) Reverse thinking requires observing problems from a human perspective and a realistic perspective.

4) Reverse thinking requires breaking the cyclical thinking pattern.

Breaking the cyclical thinking pattern is one of the important goals of reverse thinking. Application of Neil's reverse thinking theory

The reverse thinking theory believes that in the securities and futures markets, the thinking mode of the psychological group presents a cyclic pattern, that is, it is highly excited during the bull market and extremely depressed during the bear market. This alternating change of emotions is consistent with the alternating change of market form, and the cycle continues again and again. This cycle of emotional changes begins when the different components of human weakness take a dominant position in the different stages. The motivating factors of these human weaknesses are "mutual imitation" and "mutual infection" in human weaknesses. In other words, "mutual imitation" and "mutual infection" are two human weaknesses that play a key role in both the "bull market" and "bear market" stages of the market. To break the cycle of human weakness in different stages of the market, we can only adopt a reverse thinking model. In this way, we can be "fearful" when the public is "greedy" and "greedy" when the public is "fearful". Thereby freeing yourself from the mental group thinking.

It should be pointed out in particular that the investment strategy of the psychological analysis school is a timing-based investment strategy. It has very outstanding advantages when choosing the timing of investment, but it also has flaws that cannot be ignored.

The advantage is that the psychological analysis school has a relatively accurate grasp of the nature of the timing of strategic investment. In the initial stage of the market's strategic stage transition, such as the transition from a bull market to a bear market, the market will show increasingly strong group psychological characteristics, that is, the psychological characteristics of increasingly intense speculative fanaticism. By following the investment theory of the psychological analysis school, investors can observe the changing nature of the market with a calm mind, and thus formulate corresponding preventive measures and investment strategies.

The main flaw of the psychological analysis school in judging the timing of strategic investment is that it has poor accuracy in grasping the timing of entry and exit, and sometimes large time deviations occur. This time deviation may cause serious harm to investors. If investors make investment decisions based on the investment strategy of the psychological analysis school, they must have strong psychological endurance and financial endurance. Otherwise, investors may still face being eliminated even if they make historically correct judgments.