According to industry insiders, as enterprises are busy bidding for purchasing and storage, the effective supply of resources is relatively tight, which leads to a strong price trend in the spot market, and cotton prices may continue to rise in the next three months. However, from another perspective, after the national purchasing and storage, if there is no new purchasing and storage plan, processing and circulation enterprises will inevitably sell a large number of spot resources in their hands, and cotton prices may also fall sharply.
The pressure on enterprises has been greatly reduced.
With the global production, consumption, trade, investment and other fields being severely impacted, the consumer demand has fallen sharply, which has a serious impact on the highly export-oriented economy of China, and China's second largest export commodity, textiles and clothing, has inevitably encountered a cold current. A few days ago, Jinshi Futures organized a cotton research group to conduct a two-week national cotton industry survey. The survey results show that the differentiation of textile enterprises is becoming more and more serious, and the indexes of medium and large textile enterprises with strong competitiveness are better than those before the Spring Festival.
"Last year, the operating rate of individual textile enterprises even dropped below 50%," Dong Shuzhi, head of Jinshi Futures Cotton Research Group, told reporters that the operating rate of large enterprises rose sharply, with an average of 92%, the lowest 70% and the highest 100%, and the increase was estimated at around 30%.
What caused this reversal?
"There are two reasons. First, orders from downstream enterprises began to increase, and consumer demand rebounded; Second, after the Spring Festival, some small and medium-sized textile enterprises stopped production or closed down, giving up some market share. " Dong Shuzhi said that some enterprises stopped production due to uncompetitive products, high inventory of finished products, lack of funds and other reasons, while downstream customers kept orders for textile enterprises with domestic brand clothing, and the operating rate was always 100%, indicating that the differentiation of textile enterprises was becoming more and more serious.
The survey shows that the operating rate of cotton enterprises has been greatly improved, and the inventory cycle of finished products has been reduced, which has greatly eased the financial pressure of enterprises, but the funds are still very tight because the payment cycle is still long. Because Xinjiang cotton has not yet entered the market in large quantities, but there are a large number of high-quality mainland cotton, the quota of imported cotton is limited, and the supply of high-grade cotton in the mainland is in short supply. The progress of raw material procurement in textile enterprises is slow, and the spot price has risen steadily. In February 2009, the spot price rose by nearly 700 yuan/ton.
"The inventory cycle of enterprises has been shortened," said Dong Shuzhi. "The average inventory of cotton raw materials in large textile enterprises in the surveyed enterprises is 26.25 days, the lowest is 10 day, and the highest is 60 days, which is also at a low level compared with the previous data. It can be seen that the inventory cycle of enterprises is shortening. "
However, although some indicators show that the operation of textile enterprises has improved, most enterprises still think that the global textile consumption is difficult to be optimistic in the next few months, especially the global economy is difficult to bottom out in a short time, and the export situation faced by China's textiles and clothing is still very grim.
The market outlook focuses on purchasing and warehousing.
What are cotton enterprises most concerned about at present? The answer focuses on one thing-storage.
In order to protect the interests of cotton farmers, support the cotton industry and stabilize the market, the state has launched an unprecedented purchasing and storage policy, increased the export tax rebate for textiles and clothing, and introduced a subsidy policy for cotton transportation in Xinjiang, from which many cotton-related enterprises have benefited. "Due to the sharp decline in cotton consumption, the oversupply of cotton directly led to a sharp drop in cotton prices. After expecting the high price of the country, the processing and circulation enterprises with serious losses deeply felt the influence of national policies. " Dong Shuzhi said.
It is understood that on March 13, the third batch of cotton stored in China was 23,400 tons, including 7,600 tons of Xinjiang cotton and 0/5,800 tons of inland cotton. As of 13, the cumulative effective transaction of the third batch of purchasing and storage 1268 150 tons. Since purchasing and storage began in 2008, the mainland has completed the purchasing and storage plan 1 138950 tons, and Xinjiang has completed 1348300 tons.
What does purchasing and storage mean for the market outlook? Both sides have their own reasons and arguments, which may be a double-edged sword.
On the optimistic side, at present, because enterprises are busy bidding for purchasing and storage, the effective supply of resources is relatively tight, which leads to a strong price trend in the spot market. In addition, the increase in the operating rate of textile enterprises and the recovery in cotton demand have led a considerable number of enterprises to believe that cotton prices will continue to rise in the next three months.
Bears believe that after the national purchasing and storage, if there is no new purchasing and storage plan, processing and circulation enterprises will inevitably sell a large number of spot resources in their hands, and Xinjiang cotton will also enter the market in large quantities, and cotton prices will inevitably fall sharply.
Dong Shuzhi said that the bullish trend of cotton prices in the afternoon has become the mainstream expectation of the market. The main reason is that despite the sharp drop in foreign cotton prices, the country's strong policies have been supporting domestic cotton prices, and market rumors have a great impact on the country's continued purchasing and storage and the substantial increase in the operating rate of textile enterprises. However, the focus is on whether the country will introduce the purchasing and storage policy again after purchasing and storage, and what will happen to the supply of market resources after purchasing and storage, which will dominate the trend of cotton prices. Domestic cotton prices will continue to explore the future market trend in the economic and policy game.