Yesterday's review mentioned that "PetroChina's surge opened the prelude to short-term market adjustment" and pointed out that "this abnormal surge will increase the fluctuation of short-term stock indexes" and "it is more likely to open lower tomorrow". In fact, there was a rare plunge in the market today. The Shanghai Composite Index directly broke through the 3000-point integer mark, and more than 100 stocks fell. Who is the driving force behind such a big plunge?
I think there are three main driving factors:
First, the high deviation of various technical indicators. From a technical point of view, MACD and KDJ have deviated from the high level in the past few days, but they have not been adjusted because of the enthusiasm of the market to do more. Moreover, from the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, the rise in recent trading days is also in a state of high deviation, with three short-term gaps in the early stage. Therefore, technically, the market needs to be adjusted and the technical indicators need to be repaired, which is conducive to the further development of the market outlook.
The second is the impact of the national macro-economy. I remember when I was on a business trip, the CPI data released in September showed that it was 3.6%, and it was emphasized that the average CPI from June to September in 65438 was 2.9%. What does this data show? Friends who know a little about the economy should know that 3% is the warning line of CPI, which means that China did not enter inflation from June 5438 to September. When I learned this data, the biggest feeling was the word "fudge". As long as people living in this society can feel that prices have skyrocketed and money has become worthless. This is inflation. Yesterday's data came out, and the CPI of 10 was 4.4% in that month, which caused concern about the economy. As for high housing prices, there is no need to talk about it.
The third is the inexplicable agitation of PetroChina. The listing of PetroChina, the second largest oil company in the world, has brought disaster to A shares. Since then, every surge of PetroChina has been accompanied by the adjustment of the stock index, which has become the weather vane of the market to a certain extent and has a huge psychological impact.
It is expected that the market will continue to sort out in the short term, and the adjustment target may confirm the annual line. In terms of the mid-line, the market has broken through the downward channel of 3478 points for more than a year, and the rebound target should be above 3478 points. So the middle line can still be optimistic.