Gong Wei file: Gong Wei invested by Nash is the first batch of futures traders in China. In the 1990s, he used artificial high-frequency trading to dominate mung bean contracts and rubber contracts. In 2005, he moved to Chicago and new york and worked for a famous overseas hedge fund company, engaged in foreign exchange trading; Has earned hundreds of millions of yuan; 20 14 issued global hedge funds through China merchants fund, becoming the forerunner of foreign exchange trading through QDII channel of funds.
As a professional fund manager and trading strategist, Gong Wei won the 2008 annual trading competition of CMC Markets Asia Pacific Limited (China), with a monthly return on investment of over 650%.
In 2008, it will leave a great mark in the history of international financial development. The financial market is in crisis, and the huge fluctuations caused by it make investors all over the world at a loss. Faced with such a volatile market, Mr. Gong Wei won the grand prize by virtue of his own experience, and his extraordinary strength in the transaction became more and more prominent. Recently (2008), we conducted a telephone interview with Mr. Gong on the issues of market research and trading methods that investors are generally concerned about, and here are some excerpts from the interview for readers.
Classic summary
1. I personally regard trading as the use of a tool, and the success or failure of trading depends on the proficiency in the use of tools and the types of tools.
What kind of fruit you can harvest depends on how many bamboo poles you have in your hand and how long the longest bamboo pole is. Let's call it "bamboo pole theory".
3. In the face of big market fluctuations, we can still maintain an objective analysis of the market and have confidence in our own judgments and decisions.
4. The allocation of funds is mainly to grasp the degree. I don't always simply follow a fund allocation model.
I follow the principle of doing something and not doing something. Not every possible trading opportunity will keep me from letting go. Giving up sometimes means more choices.
6. I don't predict not only because the market can't predict every step, but also because prediction can only make traders lose objectivity and normality.
7. Whether it is trading opportunities or analysis methods, their choice is very important for trading.
8. A qualified trader is a person who knows how to respect the market, can make full preparations and correctly view the trade-off relationship.
9. So far, I haven't met any trading system that can help traders make long-term profits. The best way to trade must be to change.
10. Trading with other businesses actually requires monographs and investment, and it takes no less time/energy than other businesses. That's the reason.
1 1. Investment is something very close to our life. It should be said that it is a normal state and exists in all aspects of life. Successful investment does not need any profound theory.
12. Successful traders are not mysterious, they just do more, longer and are more familiar with what they do.
Editor: Hello, Teacher Gong! First of all, congratulations on winning the Asia-Pacific runner-up and the China champion in the 2008 CMC Markets Asia-Pacific Trading Competition. Your trading achievement has won honor for the whole China district. Now many investors are highly concerned about the results of this trading contest, so today I will interview you on behalf of the company, hoping to let you know more about yourself and your investment philosophy, and hope that we can get some successful enlightenment from your experience.
Gong Wei: You flatter me. I'm glad to get such a result. I'd like to share some ideas about investment with you.
Editor: Teacher Gong, in the face of such a turbulent market and unknown competitors, you can still achieve such good investment performance. What factors do you think contribute the most to your successful transaction?
Gong Wei: Personally, I regard trading as a tool. The success or failure of the transaction depends on the proficiency in the use of tools and the types of tools.
"Proficiency" is what we call trading skills and abilities. Everyone is very different, even at different trading hours. People often quote the "barrel theory", and the amount of water contained depends on the shortest piece of wood in the barrel. The shortcoming of the trading method is the short board. Traders can only make their trades closer to success by constantly correcting shortcomings.
Understanding of "tool type": What kind of fruit you can harvest when you go to the orchard depends on how many bamboo poles you have in your hand and how long the longest bamboo pole is. Let's call it "bamboo pole theory", which is completely opposite to the barrel theory mentioned above. Trading varieties are equivalent to bamboo poles, and profits are equivalent to fruits.
In this kind of competition, I can find more profit points in markets other than foreign exchange with the help of international contracts for differences, such as shorting the recent US dollar index with index contracts for differences. These new profit points have played an important role in my investment performance in this competition.
Editor: Mr. Gong, as far as we know, you have quite rich investment experience in the domestic market before. What is the relationship between these past experiences and your victory in this competition?
Gong Wei: Trading mentality plays a very important role in winning this game, and the formation of trading mentality is also inseparable from my past investment experience.
Since 1990s, I have invested in China stock market, and then turned to domestic futures market. These experiences gradually cultivated my ability of independent thinking and calm judgment. In the face of big market fluctuations, we can still maintain an objective analysis of the market and have confidence in our own judgments and decisions.
Editor: Which investment experience in stock and futures do you think is more helpful for your current trading?
Gong Wei: The trading experience in the futures market is most helpful to my current operation method and thinking, because in such a market where leverage can be used and two-way trading can be conducted, I must be more cautious in dealing with the problem of directional selection.
In the futures market, the price is pulled by two factors: homeopathic overweight and wrong stop loss, which often leads to a faster direction. I must react faster and be able to adapt to its changes. The way and experience of futures trading enable me to deal with the problems encountered in current trading more calmly.
Editor: Can you tell us some secrets of your operation in this competition, such as how to allocate funds, how to manage risks, and always strike hard?
Gong Wei: There are no secrets. The allocation of funds is mainly to grasp the degree. I don't always simply follow a fund allocation model, and I have a greater chance of grasping it. Dare to attack heavy positions and strictly limit the time of holding positions.
For general trading opportunities, I will reduce the leverage ratio. At the beginning of the game, there were obvious breakthroughs in the market for several days. I hit these deals hard, but after a while, I still have to reduce the leverage ratio.
I think the risk of trading comes from two aspects: leverage ratio and holding time, which is a multiplier. Many times, our judgment is accurate under certain conditions, but due to the existence of "uncertainty", with the extension of holding time, more and more new factors will be inserted, which will interfere with the result of our judgment. So in my strategy, I will consciously shorten the holding time to avoid the impact of uncertainty on me. In addition, I follow the principle of doing something and not doing something. Not every possible trading opportunity will keep me from letting go. Giving up sometimes means more choices.
Editor: What qualities do you think a qualified trader should possess? Or what are the qualities of traders you recognize?
Gong Wei: I don't think I can say this topic completely, but I'd like to discuss it with you.
I think the first one is: we should know how to respect the market and learn to exchange information with the market operation, instead of imposing our own ideas on the market. This is the first and necessary.
Many friends have asked me about the market. What will happen to gold tomorrow? How will the euro go? I usually answer "I don't know!" It's not that I hide the treasure on purpose, but that I really don't know. I don't predict not only because the market can't predict every step, but also because prediction can only make traders lose objectivity and normality.
I met many traders, lost flexibility in forecasting the market and maintaining face, and finally lost money. These witnesses always remind me to stop predicting and wait for the answer. We often say that homeopathic trading is also based on the fact that there is no subjective formula in our minds. Once the trend is expected subjectively, it is difficult to ensure the correct execution of both trading plan and stop loss control.
The second is full preparation. As my teacher told me when I was a student, the extraordinary performance of an exam is often that we are fully prepared for the exam of this course, not the sudden improvement of our ability. This also applies to transactions. In the ever-changing market, if traders know all the possible situations, they will naturally achieve impressive results. I like trading because it gives me the opportunity to keep learning.
The third is the correct understanding of trade-offs. Regardless of trading opportunities or analysis methods, their choice is very important for trading. From a dialectical point of view, when you choose 1 in 100, you give up the other 99, so I think choosing, not choosing is more choices. A person who knows how to respect the market, can make full preparations and correctly view the trade-off relationship is a qualified trader.
Editor: It's the first time I've heard so many opinions and opinions from you. It's really interesting. My next question is inevitable. Can you comment on the current market situation? In your opinion, what is the difference between investing in the domestic market and investing in the international market?
Gong Wei: In my opinion, both domestic and international investment markets are linked. With China's accession to the WTO, the deepening of global competition and the assimilation trend of markets, it is impossible for any market to develop in isolation, and the development path of the so-called capital market with China characteristics will soon return to the track experienced by all mature markets.
The domestic market and the international market are increasingly converging. However, the domestic market is definitely still in the primary stage, and there is still a lot of room for development in terms of varieties, rules and supervision. It is also for this reason that I began to pay attention to the international market very early.
On the one hand, it is expected to participate in the international market game with fairer rules and realize the diversified allocation of investment through the international market; At the same time, I hope to exercise my more mature operation methods, broaden my horizons and prepare for the future domestic and international synchronization.
Personally, I am very satisfied with the current market. How can I explain this "very satisfied"? We can talk about the quality of the market from a long-term perspective, but we can also start from a viewpoint.
Let's look at it from a long-term perspective: the current correction of the capital market is very healthy, just like a person needs a rest after a long period of hard work. Bear market is always the beginning of bull market. Only a fully adjusted market can release enough risks and accumulate momentum for the next round of growth. The current stock market can be said to be a golden opportunity to seek gold. The stock value of many excellent listed companies has reached a very satisfactory level.
In the short term, I am also satisfied with the current market, because with my operating style, the price fluctuation of the market has provided me with opportunities for profit, and the current turbulent market has also created many such opportunities.
In my opinion, financial investment is not complicated, so I like to run the analysis with common sense means. For example, the soaring dollar in recent months seems illogical on the surface. Why did the financial tsunami originating from Wall Street trigger the rise of the US dollar?
Let me give you an example to see the logic of what I call "common sense" analysis. For example, a Beijinger has many properties all over the country. Now he has some business problems and needs money badly. He must sell most of the properties. Where do you think he will leave his property? Should still keep Beijing's real estate not for sale, because common sense infers that this is the base of his rebirth. There is a problem in the financial market in the United States, and the local economy in the United States needs to withdraw funds to help the headquarters, so it is reasonable to sell other overseas assets and withdraw capital. A large amount of short-term capital return will inevitably lead to a sharp rise in the exchange rate of the US dollar, but this trend may not be sustainable.
Editor: Besides the "common sense" analysis method, do you have any special trading strategy/trading mode to deal with the current market?
Gong Wei: What can I say? For example. There are many time-honored brands in the catering industry in China, but when you go there to eat, you will always feel that it is not as different as we thought. Some of their special dishes and services can even be done by many emerging catering enterprises. But why they become time-honored brands is actually a very simple fact of "persistence".
When we look at the word "big waves scouring the sand", we should understand that it is not that "big waves scouring the sand" is not good, because "scouring" is actually a process of filtering and verification. "Tao" removes flaws, not durable sand, but gold. After so much inheritance, an old-fashioned dish and a service can be as good as 30 years ago or 100 years ago, and it has achieved itself.
There is little difference between trading and traditional business. Many of my trading strategies and models are nourished by traditional business. None of them are special and plain, but these common methods have not been eliminated after I have verified them for so many years. I have survived many years of trading with these methods, which makes me more convinced that these strategies have a reason to exist. They are my precious placer gold mine.
Editor: Then, can you give us some specific explanations or useful warnings about the transaction, taking the traditional industry as an example?
Gong Wei: Well, when I was a child, the old man often told me: You get what you pay for every meal, and everyone is starving. How to understand this sentence? You must have a reasonable profit expectation before doing business. In trading, people's greed will swell, and most traders have unrealistic profit expectations.
My experience has given me the opportunity to meet many rich and smart traders. They hoped that the futures market would make them rich overnight, but in the end they all left the market full of opportunities empty-handed. Wang Shi, the president of Vanke, who made a lot of noise in the previous paragraph, also said: Vanke will not do more than 30% of the profits, because the average profit level of international counterparts is also the same. Vanke knows how to give up unrealistic profit expectations and become bigger and stronger in the market through long-term operation. The profit of trading also comes from long-term and stable accumulation.
Profit expectation can also be understood as "waiting for the rabbit". Many traders have gained excessive returns in the abnormal market in the past two years, waiting for a rabbit under the tree, so they expect to wait for such low-risk and easy gains in the next market. I think it is a good thing for bear market investors to enter the market. Only after experiencing a difficult market will investors have a reasonable expectation for this market.
In traditional business, it is often said that you will do whatever you want. In the face of business opportunities, sometimes subtraction is more important, and you should know how to choose. There are many temptations and specious opportunities in trading, which requires traders to make a choice, not to be greedy, to choose a more sure and certain transaction to avoid unexpected situations.
Editor: Apart from the modes you just mentioned, are there any trading systems that can help traders win?
Gong Wei: So far, I haven't met any trading system that can help traders make long-term profits. The best way to trade must be to change. I like futures trading because it gives me a learning mentality. In order to play this game for a long time, I must learn new content for a long time.
Editor: Today's investors or traders can be roughly divided into several categories, and they all lack funds, time or experience to varying degrees. What preparations do all kinds of investors need to make to enter this market according to your experience?
Gong Wei: This thing is very simple to say, that is, to make full knowledge preparation. When a person goes to the morning market, if he is willing to spend 10 minutes bargaining with vendors about 5 yuan money, he should spend the same time to understand the business when considering the investment of10 million yuan. In fact, trading with other businesses requires monographs and input, and the time/energy input required is not less than that of other businesses. That's the reason.
Editor: I know through many channels that you are highly respected in the financial sector. Many of our readers want to ask you about the nature of the transaction. Will you be willing to teach these essences to everyone?
Gong Wei: I'd like to try to tell you my understanding of many opportunities trading, but it didn't play much role in the end. Trading technology is easy to learn, but trading psychology must be trained to master.
For example, an archer is standing on a cliff, holding a bow and pulling an arrow, and crossing the Yang with a hundred paces. In this particular time and space, archery is secondary, and how to stand on the top of a thousand miles is the key. Archery, the master can teach; However, the way of standing on the cliff can only be understood by the archer himself standing on the cliff day after day. Trading is no exception, and the long-term practice of traders is essential.
Editor: Teacher Gong is very modest. Your views on trading and the market are like a warning to all readers, not just myself. I have one more request. Can you take a message to our investors before the interview is over?
Gong Wei: Investment is something very close to our life. It should be said that it is a normal state and exists in all aspects of life. Successful investment does not need any profound theory. As can be seen from the allusions of oil sellers, successful traders are not mysterious. They just do more, longer and are more familiar with what they do. I hope investors can work hard, devote themselves wholeheartedly and concentrate on becoming oil sellers in investment.
Editor: It was not long ago that I met Mr. Gong, which made me stop at the mountain from my initial suspicion. Mr. Gong proved himself in a very direct way. This interview with Mr. Gong gave me a chance to study his ideas more deeply.