According to the analysis of pig price data, the average price of live pigs bottomed out at 12+09, and the market showed an inertial decline. The average price decreased by 0.4 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. In the last two days, the price of pigs dropped as high as 1.58 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs dropped significantly compared with 654300.
This round of pig prices fell sharply. In just two weeks, the average price plummeted by 24.3%. The key to supporting the decline in pig prices lies in the sharp increase in downward pressure under the long and short market game!
On the one hand, it is difficult to boost the demand for pork in the traditional consumption season.
Due to the decline of residents' purchasing power level, the mood of curing bacon is less than expected, and the mood of southern residents purchasing pork curing bacon is poor, and the consumption at home is cooling down.
However, due to the problem of masks, residents travel cautiously, eating out continues to be sluggish, the demand for catering and internal meals is limited, the demand for pork in domestic society is bleak, and consumption support is insufficient.
On the other hand, the supply of live pigs is loose. This month, the slaughter plan of the group's pig enterprises has been greatly improved. Some pig enterprises have increased their price reduction operations, and the pessimism at the breeding end is strong. The panic of retail investors and secondary fattening is heating up. The supply of live pigs is obviously loose, and domestic consumption has not been well followed up. The market surplus is outstanding!
Therefore, under the background of strong market supply and weak demand, the price difference of domestic standard fertilizer has been narrowing, and the pig price has exceeded expectations! In the last two days, pig prices have been "hit hard" and the market has fallen sharply again. Personally, the logic of the decline is as follows:
On the one hand, the live pig futures market plummeted, with 65,438+February 16, and the live pig futures fell 1430 yuan/ton in a single day, down 8% to16,450 yuan/ton. The pig futures price touches the fattening cost line, which is equivalent to the spot pig price of 65438+.
On the other hand, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released information that during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the market will increase the supply of pork reserves, further stabilize the price of pork and stabilize the supply of holiday markets!
Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market and the adjustment of pork reserves, the domestic "post-mask era" has been superimposed, and many places in the country have entered a peak stage. Domestic production, management and consumption have been significantly impacted. The market is worried about the downward trend of consumption expectations, and the panic at the breeding end has intensified. The panic phenomenon of retail investors and secondary fattening has increased sharply, and large pig enterprises have reduced their prices. It is difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase, and the support for price reduction has become stronger. Domestic pig prices were hit hard and the market unexpectedly fell.
Now 65438+February has entered the middle and late stage, and the pig price has risen and fallen by more than 24.3% in a month, and the pig price has gradually fallen below the breeding and fattening cost line. With the approach of winter solstice and New Year's Day holiday, what is the market trend? Some institutions predict that pig prices may rise!
It is understood that market feedback shows that the price of live pigs in the northern region has gradually dropped to around 8~8.5 yuan/kg, and the average price of live pigs has dropped sharply. Retail investors and secondary fattening have been cautiously bullish, the difficulty of purchasing pigs in slaughterhouses in the north has gradually increased, and the phenomenon of market wait-and-see bulls has increased one after another.
Therefore, this round of pig price decline may come to an end, and there is room for downward adjustment under the rebound of market sentiment!
With the approach of the winter solstice and New Year's Day holiday, the domestic pig price will drop sharply, the market pork price will gradually loosen, the downstream consumption heat will gradually improve, and the pig price can be expected to run strongly. However, due to the pressure of pig supply, there are still big pigs that continue to be fattened for the second time, and the pig enterprises of the group have a rapid momentum at the end of the month. It is expected that the support of pig price increase is weak, and the price is still dominated by shock adjustment!
Pig prices have been "hit hard", falling more than 24.3% in two weeks, and the logic of decline has been found! Is it time to go up? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the pictures are from the internet, and the content is for reference only!