There are many methods to compile stock index, among which there are mainly market value weighting method, price weighting method, equal weight weighting method, arithmetic average method and geometric average method. Most of the internationally famous stock indexes are weighted by the market value of equity. Equity market value weight is divided into tradable shares market value weight and total stock market value weight.

Value weighting. For example, Dow Jones Global Index, Standard & Poor's Index and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index, including China, are all weighted by the market value of tradable shares, while Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index are weighted by the market value of total share capital.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is a stock index weighted by the market value of tradable shares, and its calculation generally adopts the following formula:

In which: the market value of current shares = the number of current A shares × the closing price+the number of current B shares × the closing price +...+n × the closing price.

Market value of tradable shares in base period = number of A shares in base period× closing price+number of B shares in base period× closing price +...+n × closing price

The number of base stock index points is the number of points represented by the daily standard market value stipulated by the institution. The base period of Shanghai Composite Index is199065438+February 9th, and the index point on that day is 100. The base period of Shenzhen Composite Index is1991April 3, and the index point of the base period is 100. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is based on 65438+February 3, 20041,and the benchmark index is 1000 points.

It should be noted that the number of shares in circulation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is not the original number of shares in circulation, but the adjusted number of shares in circulation is used. For specific adjustment methods, please refer to the compilation method of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index published by CSI Index Company.

Second, analyze the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock indexes

For the speculation of commodity futures, we need to know and even predict the price trend of commodity spot. Similarly, if we want to speculate on the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures, we must judge the possible trend of the spot-the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index to guide our trading.

Generally speaking, the factors that affect the trend of stock indexes mainly include:

(1) Macroeconomic situation

When the domestic economy is in a period of rapid development, corporate benefits are generally good, and the stock market as an "economic barometer" will continue to rise. On the contrary, when the economy enters a trough, the stock market will also fall into depression. Therefore, the macroeconomic situation of a country will greatly affect the trend of the stock index in the market.

In addition, in today's increasingly integrated and globalized economy, a country's economic development will be greatly influenced by other economies in the world, and the strong linkage of global stock markets is a good proof. For China, a country with high dependence on foreign countries and increasing openness, this influence will be more obvious. Therefore, to analyze the trend of the stock index, we should pay attention to the overall situation of the world economy in addition to the domestic economy.

(2) Economic policy

Even in the case of good macroeconomic operation, if the development of industrial structure is unreasonable, or because of the need of economic market-oriented reform, the state will often introduce some policies, such as raising interest rates and increasing the range of exchange rate changes, which will have a great impact on the whole economy, especially some industrial sectors. Even though each enterprise in these industry sectors is small in scale and accounts for a small proportion of the market value of the constituent stocks of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the linkage of stocks in the sectors is enough to have a great impact on the trend of the stock index.

(3) Dividends of constituent stocks, etc.

According to the compilation principle of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, when the constituent stocks carry out activities such as dividends, they do not artificially adjust the index, but let it fall naturally. Therefore, the concentrated dividends of constituent stocks, especially those with greater weight, such as China Petrochemical and Bank of China, will have a great impact on the stock index.

There are many ways for enterprises to pay dividends or increase their capital, which generally include cash dividends, stock dividends, share delivery, share allotment, capitalization of reserve funds and additional issuance. Referring to the compilation method of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index mentioned above, these activities may lead to changes in the stock price, but they may not necessarily affect the trend of the stock index. Only when the activities such as dividend distribution of constituent stocks cause changes in the market value of their tradable shares, and then affect the market value of the constituent stocks of the stock index, will it have an impact on the trend of the stock index.

In the way of dividend, cash dividend will reduce the stock price and circulation market value; Stock dividends will reduce the stock price, but will not affect the market value of circulation; The transfer of provident fund will reduce the stock price but not the market value; Although the issuance and allotment of shares will increase the market value of circulation, the index will generally be adjusted accordingly when new shares are listed to avoid stock index distortion. However, we should also pay attention to this point, because the listing of new shares will lead to a new rise in the stock, and its trend will increase the impact on the stock index.

To sum up, we need to pay special attention to the cash dividends, additional issuance, placement and other activities of the constituent stocks of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, especially the constituent stocks with greater weight, and have a better grasp of their quantity, time and even possibility.

(4) the trend of stocks with greater weight

Due to the large proportion of heavyweights in the stock index, when the operating conditions of the enterprises they represent change or are inconsistent with investors' expectations, the prices may fluctuate obviously, which will inevitably lead to the fluctuation of their circulating market value, thus affecting the circulating market value of the stock index and the trend of the stock index.

(V) Replacement of constituent shares

According to the compilation principle of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the replacement principle of constituent stocks is once every six months, but it is different for stocks with large circulating market value. For example, BOC entered the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index the day after the end of the 10 trading day. Generally speaking, the replacement date of constituent stocks (generally announced two weeks in advance) will not affect the stock index, but we need to pay attention to and follow up and evaluate the weight and operation of new constituent stocks after replacement in time.

Three. abstract

Whether investing in the stock market or the futures market, investors must not only master the necessary technical analysis methods, but also make a fundamental analysis of the investment objects. As a connecting product between the stock market and the futures market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures are no exception.

To make a fundamental analysis of stock index futures, investors need to understand the compilation method of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index first, and then analyze some factors that may affect the stock index on this basis. The author believes that macroeconomic conditions and economic policies at home and abroad will play a leading role in the trend of stock index; Dividends of stock index constituent stocks, especially heavyweights, will also affect the stock index.

In addition, the spot of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has a guiding role in judging the futures trend. In fact, futures prices also play a guiding role in spot prices. Investors should not take the spot trend of the stock index as the only basis for judging the futures trend.