Now many enterprises do hedging, whether it is upstream production, intermediate processing or downstream sales, they can lock in the price profit through the futures market, thus avoiding the risk of price fluctuation. Of course, this process does not eliminate risks, but only transfers risks to speculators.
As a market reflecting the future price of commodities, what role does the futures market play in the development of the industry? Combined with the experience of China, the impact of the futures market on the soybean industry is highlighted in the following aspects:
(1) The price signal of soybean futures market has become the "wind vane" that affects soybean planting in China.
The emergence of soybean futures market has brought important influence to the main soybean producing areas. In the past, farmers' habits and business models of growing and selling grain by feeling, experience and following the crowd are changing. The government's guidance on agricultural production has also changed from simply focusing on production to paying equal attention to production and market; Under the guidance of market prices, farmers and enterprises are more closely linked, and the degree of organization of agricultural production is improving.
We did a survey in 2008, and the farmers in the main soybean producing areas in Northeast China paid attention to the futures market, which reached 58.24%. 9% farmers choose planting varieties according to the futures market price, 40% farmers refer to the futures market price to varying degrees in the process of selling grain, and at the same time, with the gradual utilization of the futures market, 39% farmers have changed the time and rhythm of selling grain to some extent. In addition, the vast majority of farmers who are concerned about the futures market think that the use of the futures market can bring them many benefits. 14.92% of farmers said that their income has increased.
(2) Soybean futures market provides opportunities for enterprises related to soybean production, processing and trade to take advantage of market development.
For producers, the futures market can be used to "sell first and then plant"; For trading and processing enterprises, the futures market provides them with the opportunity to sign forward contracts and eliminates the uncertainty of production and trade. This change enables the former to completely shift its focus to increase the effectiveness of production, and enables the latter to expand the market scale and continuously improve efficiency by transferring risks and improving capital operation ability.
(3) The futures market provides a platform and tools for soybean enterprises to avoid risks.
The soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures contracts of Dashang Institute constitute a complete soybean industrial chain contract portfolio with strong liquidity, which provides a good platform for hedging and avoiding risks for spot enterprises such as soybean processing and trading, and becomes a weather vane for enterprises to adjust their business strategies and directions. According to our investigation, at present, the reference level of various enterprises in China's soybean industry chain to futures prices is generally high, reaching an average of 85.94%, among which traders have the highest reference level to futures prices, reaching 93.85%.
At the same time, various subjects of China soybean industry are participating in the soybean futures market more and more, and more and more entrepreneurs are participating in the futures market. In 2008, there were only 2,658 soybean contracts, among which more than half of the circulation enterprises participated in soybean futures trading, accounting for 62.4 1% of the total transaction volume of all enterprises.
Due to the use of futures tools, the anti-risk ability of China's soybean industry has gradually improved. Faced with the impact of the international financial crisis last year, most enterprises used futures tools to effectively avoid risks. At that time, according to market statistics, major domestic oil companies basically used the futures market for hedging, and most of them escaped the impact. In June 2008, only 5438+ 10 month, the profits of the top 20 soybean enterprises participating in futures hedging reached 104 1 100 million yuan, which made up for their losses in spot operation.
(D) The futures market provides strong financial support for the soybean industry and saves transaction costs.
The establishment of soybean futures market provides a new channel for financial institutions to support the development of soybean industry. The loan support and warehouse receipt pledge business provided by financial institutions for the long-term soybean supply contract signed by farms have greatly improved the capital operation ability of soybean-related industries; Some oil, oil and feed enterprises use the physical delivery channel in the futures market to reduce operating costs. In the past, most oil-pressing enterprises in southern Shandong used imported soybeans for production and processing. Over the years, the development of the futures market has gradually changed this situation. According to statistics, since the establishment of soybean futures market, more than 8 million tons of soybeans have been delivered in kind, which directly promoted the circulation of soybean spot market. In 2006, guided and driven by Dalian futures market, the quantity of northeast soybeans going south through Dalian was more than 1 10,000 tons (including non-spot delivery), which effectively promoted the southward transportation of north soybeans and alleviated the soybean backlog in Heilongjiang to some extent.
(5) Open and transparent information in futures market promotes the unification of soybean spot market.
Because the futures price information is open, transparent and centralized, it has great market influence on the spot market. According to estimates, in the absence of futures market, it takes half a month for the price fluctuation information of the international soybean market and the soybean market in the sales area to be transmitted to the grassroots vendors, and it takes about a week for the vendors to reach the farmers. With the soybean futures market, traders and farmers can get the soybean prices in the international and regional markets on the same day through the futures market, and ordinary soybean growers can understand the changes in the market prices in the next day or two. With the development of the futures market and the expansion of its influence, the price difference between soybean producing areas and selling areas is narrowing day by day.
At present, there is a strong positive correlation between soybean futures of Dashang Institute and soybean prices of major international futures exchanges and international spot markets. In the interaction of domestic and foreign futures markets, the "China factor" is integrated into the international soybean trade price through the influence of futures markets. As the largest soybean demand country in the world, the changes of supply and demand and the corresponding acquisition behavior in China have a great impact on the world soybean industry.
According to statistics, in 2008, the soybean futures price in Dalian was highly correlated with the CME soybean futures price and the spot soybean prices in the United States, Argentina and Brazil, with correlation coefficients of 0.9732, 0.9568, 0.9579 and 0.9039 respectively. The research also shows that the soybean futures contract of Dashang Institute also has obvious transmission effect on CME soybean futures contract in terms of yield and risk volatility.
At present, relying on the status of China as a major producer and consumer of soybeans, Dalian Commodity Exchange has become the largest futures market for non-GM soybeans in the world, and non-GM soybeans in China have their own price discovery centers. In the international market, non-GM soybean consumption areas pay close attention to Dalian soybean trading, and Dalian soybean futures price has also become one of the representative prices in the global market. We will fully learn from the successful experience of developed countries in developing futures markets, constantly explore and innovate, and make greater contributions to the development of soybean industry in China.