What is the main content of the book Xiang Shuai Wealth Report? After reading Jing Lei's financial theory, the most important conclusion is "differentiation", and it mainly refers to the global gap between the rich and the poor. The author lists many phenomena of wealth differentiation in the world, including the United States and China, such as the gradual disappearance of the middle class and the M polarization of society, and explains the reasons for the intensification of wealth differentiation in recent years with the progress of Internet technology and the massive release of water by global central banks. Here is a brief introduction to Jing Lei's financial management theory.
The progress of Internet technology mainly benefits from the strength in the new economy represented by Internet technology platform companies 1+ 1 >. 2' s network effect (positive externality), on Amazon, Google, Facebook, Ali, Tencent and other Internet platforms, the increase in the number of merchants and users is beneficial to other merchants and users, so it is easy to cause continuous positive feedback and platform monopoly.
In addition, compared with the higher transmission cost of goods and commodities in the real economy, the marginal cost of Internet information dissemination is almost zero, which makes the growth rate of users extremely rapid and accelerates the monopoly of Internet companies on Internet users. In this case, industry giants occupy a monopoly position in market segments, including search, e-commerce, social networks, games and so on. And it also forms the wealth difference between investment giant companies and non-giant companies.
Another reason for wealth differentiation is that the central bank releases water, which is actually an old topic. Its essence is Keynesian expansionary loose monetary policy. As we all know, Keynesianism mainly dealt with the worldwide Great Depression crisis in 1930s.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's main research direction was the Great Depression. Then in 2008, in order to avoid the Great Depression, he adopted QE quantitative easing monetary policy, and injected more than 4 trillion US dollars of liquidity into the market in two years, which made the Fed's balance sheet expand five times.
Then, after the COVID-19 outbreak triggered the economic crisis, the American stock market plunged by 30% in two months in 2020, which further dealt a blow to American consumers' desire for consumption and the process of economic recovery through the negative "wealth effect". Therefore, the Federal Reserve resumed its quantitative easing QE policy and injected a large amount of dollar liquidity into the market, but consumers did not use the acquired dollars for consumption due to unemployment and other factors. On the contrary, it further invested in financial markets such as the stock market, which led to a super-reversal of the US stock market in 2020, with major indexes hitting record highs all year round, among which the Nasdaq index soared by more than 30%. In this case, the gap between the rich and the poor is mainly reflected in the degree of participation in the stock market. The rich who hold more shares have gained more wealth brought by the stock market rise than the middle and lower classes who hold less shares. The continuous rise of China stock market in 20 19 and 2020 is also beneficial to the elites who hold more shares. On the contrary, the benefits of small and medium-sized retail investors with less shares are still very limited.
After understanding the reasons of wealth differentiation, Jing Lei talked about how to deal with the problem of wealth differentiation in order to get rich through investment.
Let's look at the issue of central bank releasing water. Judging from the situation in the United States, due to the recent expected increase in inflation rate (including the reasons why the vaccination speed and economic recovery speed may exceed expectations), US Treasury bonds have been sold off and bond yields (market interest rates) have risen sharply. However, due to relatively few recent defaults, the domestic market is relatively stable. In the case that the bond spreads between China and the United States are favorable to the United States, according to the interest rate parity, the dollar will appreciate to some extent in the short term.
Jing Lei thinks that the wealth differentiation caused by the development of Internet technology platform companies can be analyzed from two aspects. The first is personal human capital, followed by personal financial capital. There are two strategies for human capital. One is to join them when they can't beat them, that is, to improve their it skills in order to benefit from the development of IT Internet technology (promotion, salary increase, part-time job, etc.). Another strategy is to choose creative industries that are less affected by data standardization, such as literature and art, design, education, etc. And get a premium that exceeds the average market income through personal unique skills.
In terms of personal financial capital allocation, at present, in China, more than 60% of the wealth of ordinary families is invested in real estate, while less than 30% is invested in stocks and bonds (other investments include bank savings and wealth management, insurance, etc.). ). In the United States, with the promotion of pension plans such as 40 1K, the average proportion of wealth allocated by American families in the stock market exceeds 30%, which is also higher than the proportion invested in real estate. The richer the class, the higher the proportion of wealth allocation in the stock market, while the middle class still takes real estate as the main direction of wealth allocation.
In the previous article, Jing Lei's financial theory has helped you analyze the inevitability of the development of global Internet technology, including the opportunities brought by the Internet of Things, and even the enlightenment brought to the investment community by Bezos and Musk's competition for space satellite Internet business.
Since the industrial revolution, the development of global science and technology has shown an increasingly rapid exponential development, rather than the long-term slow and stable linear development of agricultural society, especially the development of ICT information and communication technology combined with ABCD (AI artificial intelligence, blockchain blockchain, cloud computing, Data big data) core technologies. It will have a subversive impact on the production activities of all industries and the consumption activities of all people. This trend is irreversible, and it is also the biggest opportunity to create wealth in history. It has made millions, tens of millions and even billionaires in the United States and China, and pushed Bezos, Musk (starting with Paypal), Gates, Ma Yun and Ma Hua Teng to the throne of the times. Even Li Ka-shing, the representative of the traditional rich, gambled on the new Internet economy through his investment in Victoria Harbour.
For ordinary domestic investors, the most direct way to catch up with Internet technology is to invest in the stocks of leading companies (such as investing in Tencent IPO, which has been held until now, and you will wake up with laughter). However, due to policy restrictions, most China Internet companies can only be listed in the United States and Hongkong, but not in A-shares, and investors can't directly buy the shares of these companies with A-share accounts. In addition, for individual stocks, fluctuations are also great, and Internet companies are fiercely competitive and change rapidly. For example, it is hard to imagine that the growth rate of Pinduoduo in the past few years will be so fast, which may pose a challenge to Alibaba's Taobao. Therefore, Jing Lei's financial theory suggests that you invest in QDII funds and participate in the investment of Chinese and foreign Internet technology platform companies' stocks. Diversified investment of funds will help reduce the risk of individual stocks, help you hold fund shares for a long time, fully share the benefits of full appreciation of Internet companies' stocks, and realize investment.