(A) the current situation of phosphorus resources in the world

According to the mineral products statistics of the US Geological Survey (20 10), the global phosphorus resources are abundant. By the end of 2009, the global total reserves of phosphate rock were 1 56.27 million tons, and the reserve base was about 46.75 billion tons (data in 2008) (table1). High-quality phosphate rock with industrial and commercial development value and high economic significance is mainly concentrated in Morocco, Western Sahara, China, the United States, South Africa and Jordan, and its reserves account for more than 85% of the world's total reserves. According to the mining level in 2009, the existing reserves of phosphate rock in the world can be statically guaranteed 100.

Table 1 World Phosphate Resources Reserves and Reserves Base Unit: 2009 million tons

Source: Abstract of Mineral Commodities, 2009-20 10.

(2) Phosphorus resources in China

China's phosphate rock resources are generally rich and concentrated, but the grade is mainly middle-low grade. According to the Mineral Resources Reserves Bulletin (20 10) issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources, by the end of 2009, there were 533 phosphate rock areas in China, with phosphate rock reserves of165438+74 million tons, basic reserves of 317100000 tons, and proven resource reserves of/. These phosphate rock resources are mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Hubei, Guizhou, Hunan and Sichuan provinces, accounting for 76% of the total reserves in China (Table 2).

Table 2 Reserves of Phosphate Resources in China in 2009 Unit: 100 million tons (ore quantity)

sequential

Source: National Mineral Resources Reserves Bulletin of Ministry of Land and Resources in 2009.

II. Production and supply at home and abroad

(I) Production Status of Phosphorus Products in the World

According to the data of International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), in 2009, more than 30 countries in the world were mining phosphate rock, with a total output of1580,000 tons (in kind), and the converted pure P2O5 was 49 million tons, which was about 8.4% lower than that in 2008. With the exception of China, almost all countries' mining volume has declined. China, the United States and Morocco are the top three countries in the world in phosphate rock production, accounting for two-thirds of the world's total output. In recent years, the production of phosphate rock in the United States has been declining. In 2009, the output was 27.2 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of the world's total output, 9.9% lower than the previous year, ranking second in the world and falling to the lowest value in 40 years. Morocco is the third largest producer of phosphate rock in the world, with an output of 24 million tons in 2009, a decrease of 14.3% compared with the previous year, accounting for 15.2% of the world total (Table 3).

Table 3 World Phosphorus Product Output from 2004 to 2009 Unit: 10,000 tons (P2O5)

Source: www.fertilizer.org.

Note: "—"indicates that no data has been obtained; E stands for estimated value.

(II) Production Status of Phosphorus Products in China

In recent years, China's phosphate rock production has maintained a steady growth trend (Figure 1). According to the statistics of National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009, the output of phosphate rock (including 30%P2O5) in China was 602 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 18.7% compared with 2008. This is the fourth consecutive year that China has become the largest producer of phosphate rock in the world since 2006. Among them, the total output of phosphate rock in Hubei, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces reached 54.53 million tons, accounting for 90.6% of the national total output. According to the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission for the development of phosphate fertilizer industry, by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, China's phosphate fertilizer output will reach150,000 tons, and the total demand for phosphate rock will reach 65 million tons. According to this demand, China's high-grade phosphate rock can only be mined to 20 15. The Ministry of Land and Resources has listed phosphate rock as one of the 20 minerals that cannot meet the requirements of China's national economic development after 20 10 years.

At present, China has become the largest producer and consumer of chemical fertilizers in the world. Since the output of phosphate fertilizer surpassed that of the United States in 2005 and jumped to the top in the world, the supply of phosphate fertilizer was completely self-sufficient in 2006, and it became one of the important exporters of phosphate fertilizer in the world after 2007. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, the output of chemical fertilizer in China reached 63.85 million tons in 2009 (calculated by pure quantity), an increase of 6.0% over the previous year. Among them, the output of phosphate fertilizer 1, 5 1.3 million tons (pure quantity), increased by 9.2% over the previous year (Figure 1). Hubei, Yunnan, Shandong and Guizhou are the main producing areas of phosphate fertilizer in China. The total output of phosphate fertilizer in these four provinces reaches 9.98 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total output of phosphate fertilizer in China. According to the production situation of enterprises, the annual output of phosphate fertilizer of Guizhou Lin Kai Group and Wengfu Group, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd., Hubei Xinyangfeng Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd., Hubei Ezhong Chemical Co., Ltd., Hubei Yihua Group Co., Ltd., Sinochem Chongqing Fuling Chemical Co., Ltd. and Copper Chemical Group (namely, Six Countries Chemical Industry) is above 200,000 tons, and the cumulative output of these enterprises accounts for 39% of the total national phosphate fertilizer production.

Figure1output of phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer in China from 2000 to 2009.

Third, the consumption status of phosphorus at home and abroad

(A) the world's phosphorus consumption

90% of phosphate rock in the world is used to produce all kinds of phosphate fertilizer (70% phosphate fertilizer and 20% compound fertilizer), and the rest is mainly used to produce feed additives, detergents and chemical, light industry, national defense and other industries.

According to IFA statistics, the global apparent consumption of phosphate rock (converted into pure 100%P2O5, the same below) was 53.49 million tons in 2008, which was 1.7% lower than that in 2007. In 2009, the global consumption of phosphate rock was about 50.5 million tons, down about 5.5% from the previous year. Affected by the global economic crisis and the falling prices of agricultural products, the global demand for chemical fertilizers has declined. In 2009, the global consumption of chemical fertilizer was 65.438+0.59 billion tons, of which the consumption of phosphate fertilizer was about 35.4 million tons (pure quantity), which was about 654.38+0.5% lower than the previous year. In 2009, the global demand for phosphoric acid (pure quantity) increased to about 39.4 million tons, leaving about 6.9 million tons (Figure 2).

Figure 2 1999-2009 World consumption of phosphorus products Note: The specific consumption data of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in 2009 are lacking.

(2) Phosphorus consumption in China

China is not only a big producer of phosphate rock, but also a big consumer of phosphate rock. Phosphate rock in China is mainly used to make phosphate fertilizer, and its application accounts for more than 70% of the total consumption of phosphate rock in China, and the rest is mainly consumed in yellow phosphorus, phosphate and phosphide. In 2008, the amount of phosphate fertilizer applied in China was120,000 tons, and it is estimated that the amount of phosphate fertilizer applied in 2009 will be basically the same as that of the previous year. After years of development, domestic phosphate fertilizer can basically be self-sufficient, and some surplus is exported, which effectively guarantees the healthy development of agriculture and national food security.

Four. Trade status of phosphate rock products

(a) the state of international trade

In the past 10 years, the world trade volume of phosphorus ore has been stable at about 30 million tons (physical quantity), and the converted pure P2O5 is about100000 tons. According to IFA statistics, the world trade volume of phosphate rock in 2009 was about 6.4 million tons (pure quantity), which was about 35% lower than that of the previous year (Figure 3). From the perspective of phosphate ore export, Africa is still the most important phosphate ore export region in the world, with Morocco accounting for 42% of the total global export and other African countries accounting for 17%. The Middle East accounts for 26% of global exports; China accounts for 7% of global exports; Phosphorus ore exports from other regions account for about 8%. In terms of phosphorus ore imports, India is the main importer of phosphorus ore, accounting for about 48% of the world's total phosphorus ore imports; Imports from the United States and Western Europe, East Asia and Oceania all fell sharply.

Figure 3 1999 to 2009 World trade in phosphorus products Note: The specific trade data of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in 2009 are lacking.

In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the world trade volume of ammonium phosphate (including monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate) increased in 2009, reaching 1865438+ ten thousand tons (in kind) (Potashcorp, 20 10). In the past 10 years, the domestic consumption of phosphate fertilizer in India has increased rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.3%. In 2009, India consumed about100000 tons of diammonium phosphate, of which 6 million tons were imported.

According to IFA statistics, the global phosphoric acid trading volume rebounded slightly in 2009, reaching 4.2 million tons, an increase of about 4% over the previous year.

(2) Domestic trade situation

In recent years, in order to protect phosphate rock resources, stabilize the domestic market and promote the sustainable development of the industry, the state has actively implemented macro-control policies: canceling export tax rebates, collecting export tariffs, collecting special export tariffs and adjusting relevant tax rates several times, and implementing import quotas for fertilizer tariffs, and implementing export quota management for phosphate rock for the first time in 2009; Since June 5438+ 10, 2009, the domestic fertilizer price reform has started; In order to cope with the financial crisis, implement the general requirements of "maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand and restructuring" in the State Council, and ensure the upgrading and stable development of petrochemical industry, the Plan for Adjustment and Revitalization of Petrochemical Industry was issued. These measures have played an important role in curbing the export of domestic phosphate rock and ensuring the priority use of domestic chemical fertilizers. In 2009, the export quota of phosphate rock in China was 6.5438+0.5 million tons, and the total import tariff quota of diammonium phosphate was 6.9 million tons, which was the same as that in 2008. According to the statistics of China General Administration of Customs, the import and export trade of phosphorus products in China (including phosphate rock, phosphate fertilizer, phosphate, yellow phosphorus, etc. ) In 2009, it has fallen sharply, and the total foreign exchange earned by export was $65.438+72 billion, down 50.7% from the previous year. The foreign exchange used for import was US$ 203 million, an increase of 40% over the previous year; The trade surplus was $654.38+$520 million, down 55% from the previous year.

1. phosphocalcic soil

In 2009, China exported a total of 382,000 tons of phosphate rock, earning 77.44 million US dollars, down by 80.9% and 80.6% respectively compared with the previous year, and the average export price was 202.7 US dollars/ton, which was mainly related to the sharp drop in prices and demand of phosphate rock and downstream phosphate fertilizer and other related products caused by the economic crisis, overcapacity and quota management (Figure 4). South Korea, Japan and ASEAN are the main export markets of phosphate rock in China. In 2009, the phosphorus ore exported to South Korea and Japan were 210.6 million tons and10.2 million tons, respectively, down by 69.6% and 62.7% year-on-year, which was mainly related to the export quota restrictions of phosphorus ore in China.

Fig. 4 Overview of phosphate ore export in China from 1990 to 2009.

2. Phosphate fertilizer and other phosphorus chemical products

At present, China is the largest producer and net exporter of phosphate fertilizer in the world, which plays a decisive role in regulating the international phosphate fertilizer market. In 2009, the export of phosphate fertilizer was 65.438+0.22 million tons, earning 326 million US dollars, and the average export price was 266.99 US dollars/ton, which decreased by 5. 1%, 53.5% and 5 1.4% respectively compared with the previous year. The import of phosphate fertilizer is small, only 34 thousand tons. In 2009, the export volume of ammonium phosphate (including monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate) was 2.569 million tons, up by 40.4% over the previous year, and the foreign exchange earned by export was 965.438 million US dollars, down by 34.3% over the previous year. The import volume was 444,000 tons, and the foreign exchange used for import was $654.38+72 billion, an increase of 35.3% over the previous year. Among them, the export volume and import volume of diammonium phosphate were 2.073 million tons and 433,000 tons, respectively, increasing by 154% and 35 1% over the previous year. This is related to the relaxation of the national fertilizer export policy in 2009 and the improvement of the international competitiveness of domestic fertilizers. In 2009, China's phosphate export volume was 505,000 tons, the foreign exchange earned by export was 3190,000 USD, and the average export price was 632.50 USD/ton, respectively, down by 3.3%, 44.8% and 42.9% compared with the previous year (Table 4).

Table 4 Import and Export of Phosphorus Products in China from 2006 to 2009

Source: Customs Statistical Yearbook, 2006-2009.

Verb (abbreviation for verb) Market price of mineral products.

In recent years, the global trade volume of phosphate rock has decreased and the mining cost has increased, but the demand is still strong, which has led to the rapid rise of international phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer prices. Since then, affected by the economic crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008, the demand of phosphate rock market has been sluggish, with overcapacity and low market prices. The international phosphate rock price (average annual price) rose rapidly from 44.2 USD/ton in 2006 to 70.9 USD/ton in 2007 and 345.6 USD/ton in 2008. In 2009, the international phosphate rock price dropped to about 122 USD/ton, a decrease of about 65%. The annual average price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in the world decreased from 967 USD/ton in 2008 to 323 USD/ton in 2009, with a decrease of 66.5%. Like the international market, the domestic market of phosphorus products was in a downturn in 2009, which was characterized by declining demand, overcapacity, insufficient start-up of enterprises, depressed prices and reduced exports. The domestic export price of phosphate ore also rose from 79.3 USD/ton in June 2007 to 356 USD/ton in June 2008. In 2009, restricted by domestic policies and export quotas, the export price of phosphate rock dropped rapidly, from $384/ton at the beginning of the year to 132/ton at the end of the year (Figure 5

Figure 5 Monthly export price of phosphorus ore in China from 2007 to 2009.

Conclusion of intransitive verbs

(1) international market

Affected by the global economic crisis, the prices of agricultural products and phosphorus products have fallen, which has led to a decline in the global production, consumption and export of phosphorus ore and a decline in the demand for chemical fertilizers. In 2008 and 2009, the consumption of phosphate fertilizer decreased by more than 10%, with a surplus of 500 ~ 700 tons. With the gradual improvement of the global economic situation, the increase of population, the decrease of grain stocks and the gradual recovery of agricultural products prices, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) predicts that the global fertilizer market will fully recover in the next few years. The production capacity of phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizer will also increase rapidly: the global phosphate rock production capacity is expected to increase by 20% from10.90 billion tons in 2009 to 228 million tons in 20 14 years; The global phosphoric acid production capacity will increase from 46.5 million tons in 2009 to 55.5 million tons (P2O5) in 20 14; The global phosphate fertilizer production capacity will increase from 34 million tons in 2009 to 42.3 million tons in 20 14. The supply and demand of phosphate fertilizer will also continue to increase. Overall, the supply and demand of phosphate fertilizer are relatively stable.

(2) Domestic market

China is rich in phosphate rock resources. According to the reserve-production ratio of phosphate rock of 52 at the end of 2009, phosphorus resources can ensure the long-term development of domestic agriculture, industry and other industries. In the past 20 years, China's phosphate fertilizer industry has developed rapidly, and its industrial structure and supply system have been greatly optimized. Through the adjustment and control of phosphorus resources integration, development planning of phosphorus-related industries, energy conservation and emission reduction, elimination of backward production capacity and other policies, the concentration of phosphorus industry has been improved to some extent, and the optimization of phosphorus industrial structure has been effectively guided.

After the financial crisis, domestic and international market demand was sluggish. While the product price is falling, the output of phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer in China is still increasing substantially, which leads to the overcapacity of phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer, and the capacity of phosphate fertilizer in some areas continues to increase. In order to ensure the healthy development of phosphorus-related industries and protect domestic phosphorus resources, it is necessary to further improve industrial competitiveness, raise the entry threshold of phosphate fertilizer industry, extend the phosphate fertilizer industry chain, focus on developing fine phosphate chemical products, and rationally guide the development and utilization of phosphorus resources according to industrial and agricultural needs.

(Wang Shihu)