The founder of the famous Turtle School, from $400 million to $200 million, dominated Wall Street. However, in 1978 and 1987, the loss was 50%, and his personal loss exceeded 80%. After 1988, the management fund closed its position, but it didn't go up again, and it also announced that it would wash its hands and no longer participate in the speculative market.

In his years of speculative career, Dennis has made a splash, giving the impression that he can often buy at the lowest point and then short at the highest point. In fact, Dennis thinks that this kind of business is not very beneficial, and the huge profits he has accumulated do not depend on accurately measuring the top or bottom of the market. According to his estimation, 95% of his profits come from 5% of the transactions. He firmly believes in the principle of fully exploiting profits.

Two waterloo:

A, 1978, Dennis's trading performance was very poor, and he retreated more than 40% and went through an adjustment stage. He summed up two reasons:

1. Because most markets were in a rampant state in those years, there were countless false breakthroughs, and the trend of unreliable supply made them show their talents;

He left the trading pool and traded remotely in the office building, losing the advantage of obtaining all kinds of information and first-hand information. It is a wise choice in the long run to buy and sell a variety of commodities, foreign exchange and interest rate futures at the same time through over-the-counter remote trading.

In response to the changes in environment and conditions, he gradually adjusted his trading strategy, focusing on medium and long-term trading.

Second, in the stock market crash of 1987, Dennis suffered heavy losses, 50% and 80% personally.

Its capital loss was nearly half, and its personal account suffered the same fiasco, with a loss of more than 80%. His investment is mainly short selling bonds. After the stock market crash, interest rates fell and bonds soared. Although there is risk control, it is difficult to stop at the moment, so the losses are heavy.

Look at his two big mistakes (one before dissolving the turtle training class and the other after returning), and his income was greatly reduced by 50%.

The fund he managed was forced to dissolve in April, 1988, and his own assets also shrank sharply from the peak of $200 million, leaving more than 10 million. He resolutely announced his departure from the speculative market, and from then on, he washed his hands and devoted himself to politics.

Reason for failure:

Why did Dennis lose 50% before dissolving the fund? It is meaningless to say that the market has changed greatly and the income has been adjusted back, because the turtles made 40 million yuan with his rules in the same period. Why is his operation level not as good as the turtle he cultivated with one hand and one foot?

The Turtle Project ended with 1987, after which the Turtles all embarked on their own trading or non-trading path. After searching for a long time, I found that some turtles were still trading. The trading methods of these turtles are almost all systematic and long-term trend tracking strategies. I compare their achievements with those of the famous Buffett and Soros, hoping to give you some enlightenment: we can find that the achievements of these turtles are similar to those of Buffett and Soros. This shows the effectiveness of the turtle rule.

The turtles in richard dennis are today's turtles.

Dennis is the spiritual mentor of the turtles. When they lose money, Dennis will come out to support them. At one time, the market fluctuated for a long time, and the turtles suffered serious losses in their accounts. At this time, Dennis appeared, invited them to the Las Vegas casino for a carnival, and then increased their funds, telling them that "losing money doesn't matter, losing money is the price of winning money" and "there is often madness after a period of tug-of-war." In fact, as he expected, after the difficult period, the turtles' income soared, and the average yield exceeded 100%.

The turtles have Dennis as their spiritual mentor, which gives them the confidence to operate. "But, who will be Dennis's spiritual mentor? Who will say to Dennis,' It doesn't matter if you lose'? "

Dennis's later failure may be due to his rebellion against his own rules. Masters are fond of innovation, and he is bound to encounter unexpected failures in the process of innovation, at least his "turtles" are not miserable at the same time. Just like Livermore's overconfidence and massive attack in his later period led to no good end, probably related to the depths of human nature.

He has a well-known "cautious" character, that is to say, he will always act on impulse and by intuition, rather than strictly following the rules of the system. He knew this very well, and he confessed to Jack Yeshaayahu Schwager of Grinch, "Essentially, I am a reverse operator." Personally, he is his own master. Without a higher supervision mechanism, he can only rely on self-discipline, so there are often things that are out of balance at the operational level.

When a person needs to be responsible for himself and no one can effectively supervise, control and balance him, what methods can be used to force him to abide by rules and laws?