Corn continued to fall, and the number of vehicles arriving in Shandong increased significantly, but the decline narrowed; However, in the northeast, the situation is mixed. But the current corn market is still a "chaotic" word:

First, it is the end of 65438+February, but the market has been undecided and the trend is still chaotic;

Second, the bad news is superimposed on each other, making the trend still confusing.

Although the price of corn is still falling, we might as well jump out of the current situation. From the overall comparison, corn shows three "long and short" trends:

First, in the long run, there is a gap in corn demand, and in the short term, corn demand is suppressed.

The demand gap of corn can be traced back to the destocking in previous years. Since the temporary storage of corn was cancelled, the corn destocking project has been started.

After five consecutive years of destocking, the corn planting area has been lowered and the corn inventory has been declining. At this time, the aquaculture industry suffered from swine fever, and the superimposed environmental protection and other factors damaged the pig production capacity. So aquaculture began to enter a rapid recovery period of production capacity. The rapid recovery of production capacity will inevitably increase the demand for corn, and the corn gap will begin to appear.

Although the current pig production capacity has recovered rapidly, the corn gap cannot be recovered so quickly, so in the long run, the corn gap is just needed.

Since there is a gap in corn, why is the price falling frequently? This is mainly because corn prices have fluctuated greatly since this year, and grain enterprises have been maintaining low inventories in order to share risks. Coupled with the increase of corn output and import this year, grain enterprises are more lenient in judging the subsequent corn market, so under the high food price, the purchasing demand is obviously suppressed.

Second, corn prices fluctuate at a high level for a long time, but there is a downside risk in the short term.

In the long run, corn will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the future. Coupled with the serious differentiation of corn quality this year, the advantages of high-quality corn in the later period are becoming more and more obvious, which is conducive to supporting the continuous high price of corn. In particular, autumn grain accounts for more than 70% of the country's annual grain output, and the purchase and sale of autumn grain takes a long time, generally starting from 165438+ 10 in that year and continuing until the end of April in the following year. In the absence of temporary storage of corn, it will last for 6 months at most by autumn corn, so the follow-up high-quality grain sources will definitely exert their strength.

However, in the short term, the tide grain that is difficult to store in the early stage is mostly listed, and the tide grain itself is risky. However, the weather turns warmer in the spring after the year, which is more risky and does not have the value of maintaining value. However, the increase of tide grain will lower the current market price, and enterprises are more willing to pull down the low tide grain price, so there is a risk of corn falling back in the short term.

Third, in the long run, the trend of corn is advancing by leaps and bounds, and in the short term, the corn market fluctuates within a narrow range.

In this year's 14th Five-Year Plan, the implementation of the national food security strategy was included in the five-year plan for the first time. Among the three staple crops in China, corn has the highest yield and planting area, so it is also the highlight of grain development. From the demand of corn, the development of deep processing, feed grain and biofuel will rise in the future, so in the long run, the overall development trend of corn will rise.

However, due to the weather, reluctance to sell and other reasons, the selling pressure of corn is constantly delayed and the demand side is compressed, which makes the corn show a narrow fluctuation pattern.

Although the current market is generally bearish on the corn years ago, under the current circumstances, a small number of traders have begun to sell, and the market has gradually shown signs of activity, so the decline in corn has narrowed. However, the probability of a big increase before the year is not high, especially in North China, which is dominated by weak shocks, while in South China, due to the start-up of feed enterprises' reserves and the improvement of demand, the overall price is expected to remain stable. It is suggested that grain holders should take advantage of the situation when borrowing from downstream enterprises to stock up, especially the tide grain that is not easy to store, otherwise the risk of tide grain will inevitably increase in the later period.