1.Reasons for crude oil price increase in June 165438+ 10.
First of all, the agreement reached by major oil producing countries to reduce production is the main reason for the rise in crude oil prices. At the end of 1 1, OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers headed by Russia reached a six-month production reduction agreement. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to reduce the daily output by about 6,543.8+200,000 barrels, or more than 3%, to 32.5 million barrels starting from 5,438+10 next June. After the production reduction, the output will be at the low end of the output range set in Algeria's preliminary agreement in September, and the current daily output level is 33.64 million barrels. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said that in order to reach an agreement, it agreed to significantly reduce production, reducing its daily output by about 500,000 barrels to 1.006 barrels. The second largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce production by 200,000 barrels per day, and the daily output dropped to 435 1 10,000 barrels. Iraq had previously refused to cut production, which set an obstacle to reaching an agreement. In addition, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed that Iran's production level increased slightly from 10. The OPEC oil production reduction agreement will be implemented on June 0, 2065438+2007+ 1. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold another energy meeting in May 2065438+2007 to review the implementation of the agreement and discuss whether to continue to reduce production. As part of the agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia will reduce production to the level of11-65438+February, with the maximum production reduction of 300,000 barrels per day in the first half of 20 17. According to the news reached in the production reduction agreement,1on October 30th, the oil price rose by more than110%.
Second, the decline in US crude oil inventories for two consecutive weeks also boosted oil prices. According to the data released by the American Energy Information Association (EIA), as of the week of1October 25th, 165438, the US crude oil inventories dropped to 488 1 100 million barrels for the second consecutive week. (See the picture below for details)
Second, the recent crude oil market outlook
First of all, the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are so different in appearance that it is unknown whether the production reduction agreement can be finally implemented. The monthly report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries1October11shows that the daily output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in June 10 was 33.64 million barrels, 240,000 barrels/day higher than that in September, the highest since 2008. In fact, analysts believe that Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are not only competitors in the oil market, but also have profound geopolitical contradictions. It is uncertain whether several major oil-producing countries can cut production according to the agreement to maintain market share. In this production reduction agreement, Iran's quota has not been reduced, but its daily output has increased to 3.8 million barrels. Despite this, Iran still hopes to return to the daily output of 4 million barrels before economic sanctions.
Secondly, there are also variables in the production reduction plans of non-OPEC members such as Russia. In the past few years, the decline in oil prices has severely hit the economies of non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and the market is generally not optimistic about Russia and other major oil-producing countries to fulfill the agreement to reduce production. Less than a year after rejoining the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Indonesia once again suspended its membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries suggested that Indonesia reduce its daily output by about 37,000 barrels, accounting for about 5% of Indonesia's crude oil production. Indonesia indicated that it could only accept a reduction of 5,000 barrels per day, which was approved in its 20 17 budget.
Third, the increase in the output of shale oil companies in the United States may offset the impact of OPEC's production cuts. In fact, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a preliminary production reduction agreement at the end of September this year, the rise in oil prices has promoted the production of shale oil in the United States. According to the latest EIA data, in the week ending1October 25th, 165438, the shale oil production in the United States increased by 9000 barrels per day on average. According to the data released by Baker Hughes, an American oil service company, the number of active drilling wells in the United States increased to 593 in the week of 20165438+1October 25th, which has increased by 96 since the beginning of September (see the figure below for details).
Fourth, the continued strength of the US dollar has also put pressure on the crude oil market. After Trump was elected as the next president of the United States, the market generally believed that it would increase fiscal expenditure and stimulate inflation. The chances of the Fed raising interest rates have increased, and the dollar has soared. The dollar index 1 65438+1October1was 97.70, and165438+1October 30 was10/.50, with a monthly increase. The continued strength of the dollar has put pressure on the price of crude oil denominated in dollars.