This is a surprise for farmers, but don't be too happy, because farmers will face "triple pressure" next.
Pressure 1: Although the price of pigs continues to rise, the cost of feed is also rising.
Although the price of pigs has risen, the price of feed has also risen frequently this year.
There have been two rounds of increase in September, with the increase as high as 250 yuan/ton.
The main reason for the price increase is that the price of soybean meal, as one of the important raw materials of feed, has risen obviously, and has now exceeded the high point of 5000 yuan/ton.
China's soybean is highly dependent on foreign countries, and its main sources are the United States, Brazil and Argentina.
However, South American soybeans have not yet been listed, and the market supply is mainly concentrated on American soybeans.
Recently, however, due to severe drought, soybean prices in the United States have soared frequently. In the supply and demand report in September, the US Department of Agriculture significantly adjusted the data of American soybeans, and lowered the planting area, harvest area, output, inventory and total output of American soybeans, which made the futures of American soybeans soar instantly and boosted the spot price of soybean meal.
According to the forecast of relevant market personnel, the yield of American soybeans is not satisfactory, and then the focus of the market will shift to South American soybeans. However, due to the influence of weather conditions, South American soybeans seem to have some uncertainties.
Therefore, in the future, soybean prices are likely to only rise and not fall.
The price of soybean meal is rising sharply, while the price of corn, the main raw material of another feed, is also fluctuating.
Although the new season corn has not been listed in large quantities, the price of corn listed sporadically has exceeded that of last year, which means that this year's corn is likely to be "high open", which will undoubtedly push up the feed cost again.
Therefore, for farmers, although the pig price has risen steadily, the feed price has risen frequently and the breeding cost has risen, which is likely to narrow profits in the later period.
Pressure 2: Although consumption is about to peak, the high probability will be less than expected.
Up to now, the overall consumption this year has fallen short of expectations. During the Qingming Festival, May Day, Dragon Boat Festival and the Mid-Autumn Festival just past, the boosting effect of consumption has obviously weakened.
One of the important reasons is that due to the influence of inflation and income decline, everyone has tightened their money bags.
In this case, it can be expected that even if the fourth quarter will usher in the peak season of pork consumption throughout the year, this peak season is relative, that is, compared with the first half of the year, the consumption level will be improved. As for the extent to which it can grow, I am afraid the probability will be lower than in previous years.
This is another big pressure for farmers, because consumption is an important factor to boost pig prices. If consumer demand is limited, it means that the motivation to support pig prices will also become very limited.
Pressure 3: Policy control is becoming more and more frequent.
From June to July to now, the country has frequently released the regulation signal of the live pig market. On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival on September 8, the first round of reserve meat has been put in this year.
Although the price of pigs is still red from the market performance, on the first day of work after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the National Development and Reform Commission once again released the signal of putting in reserve meat.
According to the information released by China Storage Network, the second round of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 17, with a quantity of15,000 tons.
Although the number is not as much as the first round, the time from the first round is less than 10 days, and this frequency is already very dense.
Although the release of reserve meat will not have a substantial impact on the pig production capacity, it will dominate the market sentiment to a certain extent. It can be predicted that the subsequent regulation will become more and more frequent and the release of reserve meat will become more and more intense, which is a great pressure for farmers.
Although the rising trend of pig prices has not changed in general, the ceiling of the rising space in the later period has become more and more obvious. Farmers should pay attention to the reasonable arrangement of the rhythm of slaughter, and then the fluctuation of the pig market will become more and more frequent.