The reform of non-tradable shares has successfully corrected the institutional defects of China's capital market. On the basis of this system level and reform, financial derivatives with stock index futures as the flagship will be launched soon, which is another innovation in the trading system level of China stock market.
Stock index futures is a kind of financial futures contract with stock price index as the subject matter. According to the same trend of stock index and stock price changes, investors do opposite operations in stock spot market and stock index futures market to slow down or offset the risk of stock price changes. The main functions of stock index futures include arbitrage, hedging, price discovery and risk hedging. All these will help prevent the stock market from skyrocketing and plunging, and contribute to the stable development of the capital market.
The introduction of stock index futures will add a new investment and profit-making tool to the market, and also add a new hedging tool to enhance the price discovery function and sensitivity of the stock market. Because of its low transaction cost and strong leverage, stock index futures respond to market information faster than the spot market. With the strengthening of the information transmission mechanism in the spot market, the market liquidity will eventually increase, which will not only increase the volatility of the spot market, but also hedge the uncertainty. Stabilizing spot market is the main function of stock index futures market.
At present, China's GDP has maintained an average annual growth rate of 10%. Under the influence of wealth effect, a considerable part of savings funds are "moving" to the stock market on a large scale, transforming the monetary form of wealth into the form of capital or assets as soon as possible. In addition, the expectation of RMB appreciation has promoted the transfer of foreign currency to RMB and RMB assets, which has formed the condition of excessive or relatively abundant capital liquidity. The motivation to use stock index futures to short down the stock market is obviously insufficient.
The most important influence of stock index futures is the introduction of two-way trading mechanism, which can greatly improve the market pricing efficiency and lay the foundation for financial innovation and derivative development. In addition to low transaction costs and high leverage, stock index futures can effectively distinguish market systemic risks from non-systemic risks in system design. Different investors in the market can obtain investment categories that match their own risk preferences, which will greatly promote the liquidity of the stock market, thus expanding the breadth and depth of market resource allocation. Expanding the breadth and depth of market allocation can improve the carrying capacity of the market. Correspondingly, the income effect of listed companies will play a role and the blue-chip stocks in the market will rise, and stock index futures will play a favorable role in promoting.
The improvement of the carrying capacity of the stock market means that some large enterprises with real macro-economic barometer function can be fully allocated as high-quality listed resources, and with this allocation orientation, dominant enterprises can expand their industrial territory on the basis of diminishing marginal costs. This expansion of territory is not only the substitution of the strong for the weak, but also the expansion of market boundaries and industries brought about by the increase in supply. Rely on strong enterprise strength, introduce a new technology or a new business model, and develop an impossible but expensive consumption into mass consumption. This concept of consumption upgrading is the value creation mechanism of income effect of listed companies in the stock market. Therefore, the combination of stock index futures and other financial products can not only meet the investment needs of different risk preferences: long-term funds pursue market average returns and share the fruits of China's economic growth, but also obtain a low-cost and high-liquidity trading tool, while venture capitalists who pursue excess returns and pay attention to specific opportunities can hedge system risks through the combination of stock index futures and specific targets and obtain profitable results of information mining.
With the breakthrough of a series of basic system construction and the formation of two-way leveraged trading mechanism after the introduction of stock index futures, the optimal allocation ability of capital market as a two-dimensional vector will undoubtedly be greatly improved. Stock index futures will promote the gradual differentiation of China stock market into strong and weak stocks, and the leading stock effect will be further enhanced, which will continue with the industrial integration and upgrading in the future. In this case, the systemic risk of the stock market will be reduced, and the situation of individual stock differentiation will be further aggravated. The choice of industry leaders may be more worthy of attention than the choice of industry. At the same time, with the introduction of stock index futures, the blue-chip market represented by index stocks will strengthen its market influence. Because the liquidity is greatly improved after being included in the index, companies with industry scale advantages will get the biggest profit effect from the optimal allocation of the market, which is undoubtedly the basis for the rise of blue chips.
Under the background of this stock market, capital resources will naturally be concentrated in blue-chip stocks and leading stocks, which will make them have stronger resource utilization ability, while other companies that are not so good or whose fundamentals are deteriorating in industrial competition will have more limited functions in the capital market. The polarization between the strong and the weak will continue to squeeze the living space of the latter, and eventually become more abandoned stocks with shell value in the capital market, thus providing opportunities for mergers and acquisitions and development of high-quality enterprises and laying the foundation for the integration of the industrial market. Therefore, the introduction of stock index futures will optimize the function of capital market in resource allocation, guide and promote the concentration of social resources to high-quality listed companies, and promote the stock market to enter a virtuous circle.
Judging from the experience of international mature stock market and the development of international stock index futures market, the introduction of stock index futures will not affect the basic trend of the securities market. For example, the United States and Britain launched stock index futures when the new round of economic growth started, Japan launched it when the yen appreciated, and South Korea launched it when the economy adjusted. It is not difficult to find from the stock market operation in these countries that the trend of the securities market has not changed obviously because of the introduction of stock index futures.