-Investigation and empirical analysis of the macro-control effect in Taizhou
Research Group of Taizhou Central Branch of China People's Bank
First of all, from a macro perspective: "unify" the regulatory situation of monetary policy.
Under the negative influence.
China's monetary policy operation has always adopted a national "chess game"
Practice, the implementation of indiscriminate management. In doing so, the state can learn from the total
On the basis of adjusting the total social supply and demand and promoting the basic level of the two.
Balance and ensure the realization of macroeconomic goals. current money
Policy operation rarely considers the level difference of regional economic development.
It's different. Due to the unbalanced development of regional economy, the depth and breadth of finance
Different, the social basis of monetary policy and economic development.
There is a big gap in conditions, so it plays an important role in regional economic development.
Roles of different sizes. Monetary policy in underdeveloped areas, etc.
The effect of economic development in developed regions is obviously different, which is caused by
This has caused some negative effects.
(A) the implementation of indiscriminate monetary policy operation management is not conducive to the whole.
Harmonious development of society
Differences between different economic systems and levels of economic development.
This determines that there are differences in the economic fluctuation cycles of different regions and different commodities.
The adjustment effect of monetary policy also has certain contrast. New round
After macro-control, the central bank's contractive monetary policy orientation is correct.
The effect of preventing economic overheating in developed areas such as southern Jiangsu is remarkable, but
For underdeveloped areas, financial macro-control policies seem to be
"Brake" too early. In 2004 1 quarter, Taizhou's economy was underdeveloped.
The city's investment in fixed assets increased by 13. 12% year-on-year, which was higher than that of the whole province and Jiangsu.
In 2003, the level in South China was 53.58 and 73.48 percentage points lower respectively.
As monetary policy has just entered a new round of economic macro-control.
Xinghua city's growth cycle will undoubtedly have a greater inhibitory effect.
Since 2004, with the continuous introduction of a series of macro policies.
Looking at the control measures, Taizhou real estate is in a healthy development cycle.
The property market has cooled down "prematurely", and real estate investment accounts for the investment of the whole society.
This proportion has declined for the first time since the city was established, even close to it.
The phenomenon of queuing to buy a house in recent years.
Taizhou is an important frontier of Jiangsu's development strategy along the Yangtze River, but
The frontier positions occupy relatively low credit resources. New products in 2005
It is not difficult to see the regional distribution of various loans, which have been included in the opening up of the province along the Yangtze River.
The proportion of new loans in Taixing and Jingjiang, which are in the forefront, is respectively
They are 1 1% and 19%, which are 34 times and 26 times lower than hail, respectively.
Divide it. Credit investment and current production investment are misplaced, along
The main position and location conditions of river development have not been fully revealed.
Play.
(B) the implementation of indiscriminate monetary policy operation management is not conducive to survival.
The Survival and Sustainable Development of Minhe Enterprises
In economically underdeveloped areas, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is 1
Generally, it exceeds 45%, which is higher than 10 ~ 15% in economically developed areas.
Point. Economically developed areas have entered a rich society, while underdeveloped areas
It has only entered the well-off stage initially, and a considerable part of the population has solved it.
Food and clothing problem. Therefore, in underdeveloped areas, urban and rural residents bear the burden of the country.
The conditions and capabilities of domestic monetary policy are very limited, and the funds needed are also very limited.
Mainly by self-financing and private lending to solve, to a greater extent.
Increased the burden on residents and enterprises. According to a survey of 68 enterprises in Taizhou
Check, after the state strengthened macro-control in 2004, the interest rate of private financing
Significantly increased. In 2003, the interest rate of enterprises financing individuals was around 8‰.
Yes, it was basically around 10‰ in May 2004, and in the fourth quarter of 2004,
Taizhou financial institutions invested 577 million yuan in loans, with obvious investment.
At the end of 2004, the interest rate of private financing rose to 1 1‰. in addition
According to a typical survey of 20 rural families: xinghua city, Taizhou
After the macro-control in 2004, the total scale of private financing was only from April to August.
In the same period, it increased by 6.5438+0.6 million yuan and the financing cost increased by 25%; According to the special tone
Research shows that in 2004, the total amount of citizen financing was 567 million yuan, and
In 2003, it increased by 654.38+89 billion yuan, an increase of 50%, of which: investment
The proportion of "hot industries" is 37%. It can be considered that: supervision
After the emergence, even in the case of rising financing costs, more micro
Small enterprises mainly prefer private financing, and the main financing behavior is not.
Influenced by the "depth" of national macro-control.
Economically developed areas have solved the loan problem of small and medium-sized enterprises relatively well.
However, the scale of small and medium-sized enterprises in underdeveloped areas
Too small, poor operation and credit status, low credit rating,
The credit guarantee system of local SMEs is not perfect, and SMEs
In particular, the low satisfaction of small business loan demand has become
Blind spots that monetary policy cannot cover. After macro-control in 2004,
The "Matthew effect" in Taizhou area is more obvious. Small and medium-sized enterprises and economy
Financing in relatively weak areas is more difficult. According to the survey, rural areas
The financing problem of small and medium-sized enterprises is more prominent, and the counties within the jurisdiction are new in 2005.
Only 50% of the increased loan share is the same as the new loan-to-deposit ratio of 4 1.4%.
The ratio decreased by 15.06 percentage points and 16.9 percentage points respectively; according to
In the fourth quarter of 2005, 26 small private enterprises in Huangqiao old district were transferred.
Check, the bank loan satisfaction rate is only 38.57%, compared with the same period.
24. 16 percentage points.
(C) the implementation of indiscriminate monetary policy operation is not conducive to commodity management.
Effective transmission of monetary policy signals
In this round of macro-control, although the central government has repeatedly emphasized "security"
Pressure ",but due to the lack of credit supervision mechanism in some commercial banks.
When implementing macro-control policies, sex and flexibility are often more important.
Many places take hard control measures such as loan balance control, especially
At the end of March, 2004, the banking regulator issued loans to all fixed assets.
After a comprehensive clean-up, credit supply is inevitable.
"One size fits all" phenomenon. Some commercial financial institutions do not provide credit.
Can fundamentally get out of the situation of "once released, live, once managed, die"
The loan once fell sharply, and it was paid back at a certain point.
There has been a phenomenon of "only accepting and not letting go", and loan-to-deposit ratio has been added for a long time throughout the year
There is an imbalance in degree. Net increase of loans in the first quarter of 2004
39.10.50 billion yuan, up 36.4 1% year-on-year, from April to165438+1October, macro
The regulatory effect is obvious, and the loan growth rate continues to accelerate, and
In June, 5438+ 10 bottomed out, with a net decrease of 42 1 100 million yuan in that month; 65438+ February
Part of it is controlled by the start of some new reserve projects and the end-of-year credit plan.
Relaxation and other factors, there has been a sharp rebound and a net growth.
775 million yuan, an increase of 654.38+45.2 million yuan. Loan growth and enterprises
The timeliness of production and operation cycle and economic development on credit supply and
There are obvious deviations between the requirements of effectiveness and matching.
New loans throughout the year are highly concentrated at the beginning and end of the year, the first quarter and
New loans in June 5438+February accounted for as much as the total new loans in the whole year.
74%, an increase of 37 percentage points. New medium and long-term loans at the end of the year
The growth rate increased by 4.93 percentage points year-on-year, and short-term loans accounted for.
The ratio decreased by 10. 13 percentage points.
Operation status of local financial institutions and financial service organization system
The degree of perfection and development of financial markets and monetary policies.
The effectiveness of transmission through financial institutions has a great impact. Subregional junction
Structurally, new loans are further concentrated in developed areas. In 2005
New loans in cities and towns account for 50% of all new loans, accounting for
An increase of 10 percentage point over the previous year. Xinghua with relatively weak economy
The proportion of new loans in the city and Jiangyan is only 1 1% and 9% respectively.
5 percentage points and 7 percentage points lower than the previous year. Current macro
In terms of supervision, commercial banks operate in xinghua city, an underdeveloped area.
The scale is relatively small, the non-performing loan ratio is high, and the pressure of "double decline" is great.
Big, and greatly reduce the credit ability. In this case,
Most commercial banks will get loans from branches and counties.
Banks basically have no right to lend; Loan-to-deposit ratio, four major state-owned commercial banks
Low, more deposits are difficult to convert into loans, and monetary policy is through silver.
The intention of financial institutions to increase credit supply to support local economic development
Graphics are difficult to realize; Securities and insurance institutions are small in scale, quantity and market.
The total amount of capital transactions is not large, and the financial market as a whole is very underdeveloped.
Monetary policy signals will be partially "distorted" when transmitted through financial markets.
With the role of macro-control, some enterprises' funds
The chain will also be affected to varying degrees, and enterprise stock loans will still exist.
There is a danger of deterioration. At the end of 2005, the reasons for policy divestiture and write-off were eliminated.
Non-performing loans in Taizhou actually increased by 654.38+0.3 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, of which
China state-owned commercial banks increased by 288 million yuan, while other commercial banks
Banks rose by 0./kloc-0./600 million yuan.
(D) The implementation of indiscriminate management of monetary policy operation is ultimately unfavorable.
Achieve the purpose of regulation.
After macro-control, low-income groups and downstream enterprises bear the price.
The upward pressure is even greater, and the negative impact on the local economy is worth stopping.
Attention. The central bank's goal of stabilizing the currency and curbing inflation is far from being achieved.
Reach out. First of all, the life of the low-income class has become more difficult. Grain, oil,
Meat, vegetables, coal and liquefied gas are necessities for daily consumption of residents.
An important aspect is that if the price of the above-mentioned commodities rises by more than 20%
What the middle-income class can afford, so can the low-income class.
It is unbearable, and the high price trend is harmful to both urban and rural residents.
The steady growth of income has a negative impact. The second one is
Some downstream production enterprises are unsustainable. Coal, electricity, oil, transportation and agricultural products
Products and steel are the most important production factors of industrial enterprises.
It is difficult to increase the production cost when the supply exceeds the demand in the commodity market.
Get transferred and digested. Rising prices have a negative impact on the transportation and chemical industries.
The impact of the industry has had a certain impact. According to the investigation of Xinghua Transportation Company,
After the macro-control in 2004, every passenger car was affected by the fuel price every day.
Rising fuel prices will increase the direct cost of 70 yuan, 1- 12.
The cost increased by 27 million yuan, and the cost increased by 18%. According to another pair
According to the investigation of Taixing Chemical Industry Development Zone, the leading product in 2005 was 1- 12.
The overall cost has increased by 25%, of which 88% of the rising cost is
From 1 to 65438+February, the total profit is the same.
The ratio decreased by 4.5 12%, a decrease of 26 million yuan. The third is a part of industry.
The efficiency of enterprises has declined. Supervision of our central branch in 2005
According to the situation of 30 industrial enterprises, enterprises are interested in raw materials.
The judgment indexes of purchase price and comprehensive price level of means of production are respectively
It increased by 2 1 and 15 percentage points over the same period. Most middle and lower reaches enterprises
The increase of production cost is much faster than that of consumer price.
Speed, the profit space of enterprises shrinks, and the loss surface increases. 1-65438+ February scenery
The product sales cost and total profit of gas enterprises increased respectively year-on-year.
26. 1 1%, a decrease of 12.36%. At the same time, due to the sudden increase in investment
The decline has led to a rapid increase in product inventory of some enterprises in the investment field.
At the end of 12, the inventory of prosperous enterprises increased by 106 billion yuan, with an increase of.
It is 4.59% long. The decline of enterprise benefits will inevitably affect bank credit assets.
Have a negative impact on the safety of ...
Second, the regional orientation of monetary policy: we should properly solve three problems
Correctly handle three pairs of contradictions
The financial gap between different economic regions in China is becoming more and more obvious.
Under such obvious conditions, centralized and unified financial policies will inevitably lead to regionalism.
The policy effects between economic development are obviously different, forming various economies.
The difference in output between regions is not conducive to the cooperation between regional economies.
Adjust and develop. Therefore, according to the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development, in the total adjustment,
On the basis of control, according to the current situation of economic development in different regions, through
Moderately different regional monetary policies implement structural regulation, prompting
Monetary policy is organically related to aggregate regulation and moderate difference.
Integration should be a realistic requirement for strengthening and perfecting financial supervision in the future. but
To achieve this requirement, we must properly handle the following relations and spears.
Shielding:
-Properly handle the centralized and unified requirements of monetary policy.
Correctly handle the business of financial enterprises.
Comparative benefits of cultural management direction and county economy, especially "agriculture, countryside and farmers"
Contradictions without advantages. Monetary Policy in Structural Regulation and Regionalization
Positioning should focus on promoting economic growth and promoting regional economic coordination
Development. In policy choice and system design, we should deal with the People's Bank of China.
Branches to carry out the necessary authorization and implement effective incentive measures, real
Now, the symmetry between information, power and responsibility, in this way, can
Under the premise of not violating the unity of monetary policy, within a certain range
Determine the regional monetary policy that conforms to the particularity of their respective regions. exist
In rural areas, we should fully understand the weak interests and agriculture in the "three rural issues"
The "Fragility" of Rural Finance and the Deep Thorn of Commercial Operation Direction
Shield should be adapted to the "customization" of rural economic and industrial policies.
Monetary and credit policy.
-Properly handle the total evaluation of the implementation effect of monetary policy.
The relationship between quantity stability and regional coordination, and the correct handling of financial services.
The contradiction between the impulse of function expansion and the value orientation of financial management. solid
Practice has proved that if the economies of various regions and industries cannot develop in harmony,
Development, the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the whole national economy is also very
If it is difficult to achieve, the People's Bank of China should achieve the monetary policy goal of currency stability.
It is also difficult to mark. Therefore, when evaluating currency stability
In fact, in addition to the current overall evaluation, it is also necessary to formulate a reflection of each district.
The focus of regional economic and financial development: the supervision of financial regional development differences
Measure the index system, making it an evaluation of the implementation effect of monetary policy.
One of the monitoring objectives is to standardize the regional distribution and industry division of funds.
Cloth, to provide decision-making basis and control means for the coordinated development of regional economy.
Standard. First of all, we should formulate cities that can reflect the economic development of different regions.
Economic development difference indicators of marketization, monetization and integration.
Second, it is necessary to formulate indicators of the flow of available funds to reflect capital.
The flow and trend of gold between towns and regions. Three-element system
Determining the marginal profit rate and repayment ability of funds between different regions refers to
Standard, used to reflect the capital absorption capacity and output capacity of different regions.
Force. After the adjustment of the supervision function of the central bank, it is necessary to coordinate the relevant supervision departments.
Focus on actively cultivating active components and market-oriented subjects in the rural economy.
Body, focusing on monitoring the flow of private capital and the scale and investment of private financing.
And guide private financing to better serve agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
-Properly handle the balance adjustment of the total capital stock.
Balance and structural balance, correctly handle the huge economic development.
The contradiction between large capital demand and poor social ecological environment. exist
The degree of marketization and monetization in different economic regions is very inconsistent, and finance
Land with marginal profit rate of capital under different prosperity levels.
The regional differences are very obvious, and funds always flow from underdeveloped areas to development.
To achieve regional and financial prosperity, resulting in mobility, direction and
The regional distribution of the total amount is unbalanced, forming the "Matthew effect" that affects the region.
Coordinated economic development. Moderately differentiated regional monetary policy can
It is enough to adjust the marginal profit rate of funds between regions and adjust funds.
The flow of social funds to keep the total balance at the same time, also
It can tend to regional balance, thus promoting the coordinated development of regional economy. because
Therefore, the regional orientation of monetary policy should be to adjust social funds.
Flow, by adjusting the structural balance of capital flow, to achieve regional balance.
Promote the coordinated development of regional economy. In recent years, local governments at all levels
Take economic development as the top priority of our work, attract investment and make great efforts.
The construction of industrial parks also puts forward higher requirements for financial loans.
Requirements, but generally do not improve the poor social credit environment.
Pay enough attention. There are still some enterprises that dare to borrow money from banks.
Dare not return ",take the opportunity of restructuring and bankruptcy to escape bank debt.
This happens from time to time. Some government departments are concerned about avoiding waste based on local interests.
Debt behavior can not be corrected and stopped, and even connived and sheltered, which contributed to this failure.
The spread of good behavior. Financial institutions lack powerful means of safeguarding rights,
Prosecuting according to law often means winning the lawsuit and losing the money. Social ecosphere
The environment has not been effectively improved, which has hindered financial institutions from increasing loan investment.
Confidence has weakened credit support for the local economy.
Three. Relevant policy suggestions
(A) to speed up the pace of reform of the financial system, to establish a clear, multi
Single property right system
At present, the most urgent thing is to establish clear and diversified property rights.
System. Property right system is the core system in financial system, which
The establishment and improvement can provide stable expectations for market participants, which is beneficial.
For wealth accumulation and long-term economic activities. Marketization of financial system
The key to reform lies in the definition, arrangement and classics of property rights.
Camp constitutes a complete operation of property rights, encouraging sufficient negotiations.
The ability of the subject of property rights, and through the diversification of the subject of property rights
Market competition, increase market share in the allocation of financial resources,
External pressure and competition force the existing financial system to change.
Dynamic, from a monopoly to a number of competitions.
(b) Improve the environment in which finance plays its role and strengthen monetary policy.
Coordination between policies and other policies
Whether finance can give full play to its supporting role in the economy depends on one party.
On the one hand, it depends on whether the financial system itself is perfect, on the other hand, it needs
It depends on the external economic development environment of financial operation. These two aspects
They interact and restrict each other, which directly affects the financial support to the economy.
Sustainability and support efficiency. At this stage, monetary policy is going through
Because of the difficulty of economic operation, if we want to succeed under the current conditions.
To carry out macro-control, we must seek macro-control means such as monetary policy.
Policy coordination.
(3) Reduce the game in the system arrangement and establish an effective area.
International coordination mechanism and relatively scientific and standardized performance appraisal system
Numerous examples show that China has long been due to institutional reasons.
The pattern of "administrative region economy" or "block economy" has become serious.
Land can not adapt to the new trend of regional economic development, establish effective
Inter-regional coordination mechanism has become a top priority, and it is also the need of regional coordinated development.
The only way. Under the established institutional arrangements, due to the different actors.
There are always differences in self-goals and interests between the central government and the government.
Local dynamic games. This is especially true of unreasonable and imperfect institutional arrangements.
It will lead to the uncertainty of the game results, thus resulting in overall interests.
Damage. Therefore, the future macroeconomic policy should have enough systems.
, long-term and stability as a guarantee, that is, through the right
Institutional arrangements to improve policy efficiency. At present, it is more urgent.
The problem is to reform the cadre performance appraisal system and establish a relatively scientific system.
Standardized performance evaluation system.
(D) Further standardize the development of non-governmental finance and adjust the agricultural structure.
Village and county financial service system
The state should strengthen information disclosure and crack down on information fraud.
At the same time, relax the control of direct financing appropriately, so that fundraisers and investors can
Capitalists make their own decisions, standardize the development of private lending market, and turn the gray market
Field transparency. It is necessary to establish rural private financing in mature areas.
Association, standardize the behavior of rural private financing market. On the one hand, there are
It is conducive to the development of small enterprises, supervision and risk reduction. in addition
On the one hand, the state should implement rural finance more flexibly and widely.
The policy is loose, and the branches of the People's Bank of China should guide and contact through the window.
Cooperate with local governments to promote projects and increase support for rural credit cooperatives.
Strength and the formation of regional small and medium-sized financial institutions and other forms, the establishment of
Financial system and coordination mechanism serving county economy. sound
Micro-mechanism of commercial banks, dredge the transmission channels of monetary policy. core
The content is to appropriately delegate power to county-level commercial banks to ensure that they have
Have certain credit authority and be able to independently integrate with the local economy.
Explain the current situation and the reasonable demand of industrial structure adjustment for funds, and put forward it in time.
Lending loans to support local economic development. It is necessary to rebuild the Agricultural Bank.
Banks and agricultural development banks continue to improve their service functions to agriculture. ask
Vigorously expand micro-credit and micro-credit loans for farmers.
(E) improve financial management behavior and methods, and actively create a good
Good economic and financial ecological environment
Governments at all levels should actively create and build reliable economic security zones.
And financial environment ecological demonstration zone, in-depth development of "one innovation and four evaluations" and
Financial knowledge into community activities, laying the foundation for "creating a financial security zone"
A solid foundation; Building a county with improving the ecological environment of the county as the guide.
Actively promote the virtuous circle mechanism of county economic and financial development
Comprehensively improve the regional economic and financial environment and support the development of county economy.
Develop and build a "financial ecological platform". Improve financial supervision behavior
Ways to provide a guarantee for the county branch to implement the monetary policy. gift
We should actively eliminate the pressure of emphasizing risk prevention and restricting bank competition in the past.
The negative impact of the negative supervision mode of financial innovation has increased.
Enhance the flexibility of financial supervision and encourage commercial banks to innovate and develop their peers.
Competition, improve the efficiency of the financial industry, and enhance the activity of micro-financial subjects.
Force and the sensitivity of the central bank to adjust monetary policy. Create conditions for construction
Establish small and medium-sized enterprises within the jurisdiction, especially small enterprises and farmers.
Loan guarantee institutions and credit risk compensation funds will be further improved.
Agricultural loan insurance mechanism; Coordinate with relevant administrative departments and
Intermediary agencies, effectively solve the asset appraisal, notarization and transfer income.
Excessive fees and complicated procedures reduce the burden on enterprises and serve grass-roots enterprises.
Industrial Bank creates conditions for developing mortgage loan business. as soon as possible
Reform the existing credit rating standards and establish a set of suitable
Credit rating system for small and medium-sized enterprises.