The long-term trend of crude oil price is mainly determined by the fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand. Because crude oil is a non-renewable resource and the short-term supply elasticity of crude oil is small, the most important factor affecting crude oil price is the world economic development that determines the demand for crude oil without the discovery of new large-scale oil fields and the emergence of major technological innovations.
(b) Oil inventories-affecting expectations of oil price fluctuations
1. What is oil inventory?
Petroleum inventory is divided into commercial inventory and strategic reserve. The main purpose of commercial inventory is to ensure that enterprises can operate efficiently under the seasonal fluctuation of oil demand, and at the same time prevent the potential shortage of crude oil supply.
2. Oil stocks and oil prices
The influence of oil inventory on oil price is complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce the current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and narrowing the spot price difference. When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
(C) the cost of oil production
As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, and then affect the market supply, indirectly causing oil price fluctuations.
(d) exchange rate factor
Since international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in US dollars, the exchange rate of US dollars is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials for commodities such as gold, oil and copper are under downward pressure. On the contrary, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such goods will rise.
(v) World economic development
The growth of the global economy will affect oil prices by changing the demand in the oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and oil demand growth, and the trend of oil price changes greatly with the trend of American GDP.
In short, the global economic situation also plays a vital role in the change of oil prices. In 2008, the global economic crisis led to a sharp drop in oil prices. Later, with the recovery of the global economy, oil prices also fell.
Rise. When the global economy is booming, people will increase their investment in industry and the demand for oil and other resources will also increase. At the same time, people's quality of life will continue to improve, and the popularity of cars and household appliances will also increase.
Oil consumption has increased the demand for oil, leading to an increase in oil prices. Similarly, when the economy is depressed, the demand for oil decreases, which makes the oil price fall.
(vi) Development of alternative energy sources
As can be seen from the energy consumption structure diagram, up to now, oil consumption still ranks first. Oil cannot be replaced by other resources in the short term, and the demand for oil will remain at a high level in the short term.
(7) Emergency and climatic conditions
In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the political multipolarization and economic globalization, health
With the development of international production, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international oil market. Fear of oil facilities
Geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and political turmoil in oil-producing countries will all have an impact on international oil prices. I hope you can adopt it. Thank you.