Second, the estimation premise:
(1) is a merger with China Coal Huajin under the same control, with a total consideration of 4.8 billion additional shares and 49% shares purchased in cash, and the book value is used for accounting treatment. (2) In 2020, the equity will be tested for impairment by the discounted cash flow method. The equity value exceeds 654.38+09 billion yuan (see the 2020 annual report for details) and has not been impaired. At that time, the price of coking coal was only 0/3 of the current price of 65438+. (3) In the future, the price of coking coal will remain unchanged and fluctuate at a high level, and the price will not rise sharply (small probability). (4) Judging from the rising trend of coking coal price, the profit contributed by coking coal to Shanxi Coking in the next two years will basically be more than 3 billion (refer to the brokerage research report and corporate profits in the first half of the year). (5) In 2021year, the national steel demand is about 981100,000 tons. It increased by 9.6% year-on-year.
Second, the choice of price-earnings ratio.
(1) China is a big coal country, but high-quality coking coal is very scarce, and the coal types are completely different! Coking coal for steelmaking is treated differently from power coal. (2) At present, the P/E ratio of enterprises that produce both thermal coal and coking coal is mostly around 10, which is the result of being pulled down by thermal coal. For conservative reasons, the valuation of coking coal is also 10 times the price-earnings ratio. Shanxi coking coal price-earnings ratio 15. (3) From the acquisition to the end of last year, the average market value of Shanxi Coking Company was 654.38+0.5 billion yuan, and the effect of increasing production and profit after the acquisition has not yet been reflected. Under the background of current environmental protection policy and carbon neutrality, coal will be given a price-earnings ratio of 10 times in the next two years.
Shanxi Coking Group Co., Ltd. is a large-scale first-class state-owned deep processing enterprise integrating coal mining, coal washing, coking, tar processing, fertilizer, building materials, network technology investment and foreign equity participation. There are more than 6,500 employees, covering an area of 2 14 hectares, with total assets of 2,236,438+0 billion yuan. 199765438+passed the ISO9002 quality system certification in February, took the lead in passing the ISO 1400 1 environmental management system certification in China coking industry in February 2000, and passed the OHSMS occupational health and safety management system certification in July 2002. Shanxi Coking Company, a listed company controlled by the company, is one of the 520 national key enterprises recognized by the State Council and one of the key protected enterprises in Shanxi Province.