Stock index futures trading will lead to the diversion of stock market funds and impact the stock spot market. The author believes that this kind of influence, if any, is only partial and short-term. Overall and in the long run, the development of stock index futures will only promote the active trading and reasonable price fluctuation of the stock market, thus promoting the healthier development of the stock market. From the research of foreign stock index futures, the empirical study of American stock market by Kuserk and Cocke( 1994) shows that after stock index futures trading, the trading volume of stock market and futures market has been promoted in both directions because of attracting a group of arbitrageurs and hedgers. According to the practice of international stock index futures, the introduction of stock index futures has a long-term promotion effect on the healthy development of the stock market. Taking the United States as an example, after the introduction of stock index futures trading in the 1980s, the hedging function of stock index futures was fully exerted, enabling investors to invest in 1987.
In 2008, the losses of the stock market crash were alleviated, and a bull market was soon ushered in. Afterwards, many economists pointed out that if there was no stock index futures during the 1987 crisis, the consequences would be unimaginable. In the absence of hedging tools such as stock index futures, once the stock index is at a relatively low level, investors in the market are in a panic and rush to flee, while investors outside the market are afraid to enter the market with money. It is the generalization of this behavior that has caused the current "long bear market" in China stock market. Carrying out stock index futures trading is conducive to attracting off-exchange funds, especially large-scale funds such as insurance funds, social security funds and foreign capital to enter the market. Abundant funds and strong demand in the stock market will inevitably promote the stock market, make it out of the strange circle of "more bears and fewer cows", and contribute to the long-term healthy development of the China stock market.
An analysis of the relationship between the lending mechanism in the stock market and the introduction of stock index futures
China stock market cannot borrow securities, and there is no lending mechanism. Therefore, the trading function of stock index futures is difficult to play. To develop stock index futures, we must first solve the problem of lending mechanism in the stock market. From the analysis of the relationship between the lending mechanism and the pricing of stock index futures by foreign market participants, there are basically two views. One is that the lack of lending mechanism will affect the wrong pricing of stock index futures; The other is that the lack of lending mechanism will not affect the mispricing of stock index futures. The author believes that whether there is a lending mechanism in China does not constitute a necessary condition for the development of stock index futures. First of all, is there a certain degree of lending mechanism?
It will affect the efficiency of market arbitrage, but it will not cause fundamental obstacles to the normal operation of the stock index futures market; Secondly, when market participants, especially institutional investors, have a large number of stock positions in advance, the lending mechanism has no effect on arbitrage trading, while the current situation in China is that institutional investors have a large number of stocks, so the impact of lending mechanism will be very limited; Third, the establishment of the lending mechanism needs certain conditions and processes. Judging from the practice in the international market, Hong Kong and South Korea did not have a loan mechanism when they were in share price index futures. In Hong Kong, some constituent stocks were allowed to sell short on 1994 and 1996 was lifted, but the borrowing amount was relatively small, accounting for 3.5% of the total stock trading. South Korea only allows short selling in September of 1996, but according to the statistics of 1998, the trading volume of index arbitrage through the lending mechanism is very small, less than 1% of the trading volume of stock index futures. This shows that the permission to borrow space is conditional and process, and its role cannot be exaggerated unilaterally. It can be seen that in the initial stage of stock index futures trading in China, the lack of lending mechanism will not have much impact on trading, and it can be gradually built with the development of stock index futures in the future and the maturity of conditions.
Establishing the mechanism of borrowing space to improve the efficiency of stock index futures market.