Long-term prediction is a bit "mysterious", that is to say, the result of prediction may not be accurate.
Theoretically, there are two points that can support the prediction of the future development pattern for a longer period.
First, that is the social goal set under the social development system. It exists in the form of political and economic theory, such as the goal of one hundred years, such as what kind of society we want to build in fifty or one hundred years.
The second is to predict the results of the next 50 years according to the technical operation route. But go deep into very specific fields. For example, based on intelligent robot technology, we can speculate on the possibility of future smart chip implantation technology.
You can try to make a simple prediction from the aspects of economy, finance, science and technology:
First, the United States
1, level of economic development
After the subprime mortgage crisis, American economic recovery has been a topic of world concern. According to the forecast, the American economy will run on the track of high cost and low growth for a long time.
Reason 1: High achievement is reflected in the demographic dividend. Historically, the deindustrialization movement in the United States has proved that the demographic dividend cost of American economic development has disappeared. Although the United States may provide dividends for economic development by suppressing trade unions and improving labor productivity, this is only a short-term stimulus policy.
Reason 2: On the demand side, the rapid development of the global economy and the economic development of the original backward areas, such as the upgrading of manufacturing and service industries, will bring competitive factors to the American economy, and the export-oriented driving force of American economic development will gradually shrink.
In recent years, the United States has adopted a series of policies to reduce the cost dividend, hoping to guide the manufacturing industry to return, and the short-term boost effect of the US economy is remarkable. 20 15 the federal reserve raised interest rates, indicating that the us economy is in a relatively good recovery state. 20 16, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is not as fierce as before, which shows that the market's expectation of US economic recovery has returned to rationality.
The above situation shows the trend of American economy. The final form of American economy is short-term recovery and long-term downturn, and its economic development decisions, such as monetary policy, also show a short-term tight and long-term loose state.
However, the United States has a high starting point for economic development, so it is still the first level of global economic development.
2, the financial level
As mentioned earlier, American finance is reflected in its monetary value and monetary policy. Monetary policy is simply short-term tightening and long-term easing. In the global monetary system, the dominance of the dollar will be gradually weakened.
Currency internationalization is something that every country is striving for, so the dollar will still be challenged in the next 50 years. Although the United States has many means to maintain its position, the European euro zone, Sino-Russian trade cooperation, the internationalization of RMB led by China, and the possibility that Britain will dominate the strong position of the pound again after Britain leaves the EU will bring uncertainty to the future international financial market.
That is, the position of the US dollar in the international exchange system will be challenged.
3. Technical level
As we all know, the United States has always been in the position of innovation leader, so its innovation will still be in the forefront, but the advantages of technological innovation may no longer exist.
First, the phenomenon of technological homogenization will become more and more serious.
Second, scientific and technological innovation is valued by other countries around the world and regarded as the pillar of national development.
Second, China.
1, economic development
From the perspective of historical development management, China's economy will move from a big manufacturing country to a big manufacturing and service country, and to a big service country. With the development of informationization, automation, intelligence and visualization of manufacturing industry, this process is green, efficient and intensive.
At the level of economic growth, with the deepening adjustment of economic structure, the deep integration of traditional industries and the Internet will reach a new height.
Maybe in the next 50 years, you will find that the way of economic development is different.
2, the financial level
Not to mention the financial policy level here, it is linked to the growth rate of economic development, and its current state is similar to that of the United States. Tight monetary policy and expansionary monetary policy are both means to stimulate economic development. Will show the same cyclical characteristics as the periodic table of economic development.
From the perspective of nationalization of RMB, with the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate and the coordinated development of global regional economy led by China, RMB will join SDR and be included in the global currency drawing blue system, the international demand for RMB will further increase, and the global voice of RMB will gradually improve.
3. Technical level
Innovation, accompanied by high-end equipment manufacturing, will make China an exporter of technology, capital and management. In other words, in the next 50 years, China's technological innovation is reasonable after removing the bubble factor, and will gradually approach the front.
And so on, the above judgment is only a simple prediction of future development from the perspective of historical view under the existing circumstances. As mentioned above, there are many uncertain factors, especially in the past 50 years, and there are many unstable factors, such as force majeure natural disasters and political situation.
It also proves from another level that the judgment is relatively accurate in the near and medium term and is used to guide practice.
But one thing is certain, the United States and China will win the global economic game. There are both games and cooperation.