Main recommendations
In the first three quarters, GDP increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the downward pressure on the economy still exists.
With the introduction of the policy of limiting production in many places, the price of cement is expected to continue to climb.
Market review
Market comment: The policy of maintaining stability and combining punches was released, which greatly boosted confidence and the rebound space is expected to be further opened.
Macro perspective: the State Council: Five policies, such as stabilizing the market, should be put in place quickly and firmly.
Securities industry: the performance has been greatly improved month-on-month, and leading brokers with excellent fundamentals have been selected.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 276.50, down 0.09%; Copper 50420, up1.04%; Rebar 4085, up1.39%; Rubber 12080, up by 0.42%; The PVC index was 6435, up by 0.23%; Zheng Chun 3296, down1.44%; Shanghai Aluminum 14 170, up by 0.25%; Shanghai Nickel 104 190, up1.84%; Iron ore 523.0, up1.75%; Coking coal 1356.0, down 0.88%; Crude oil was 559.3, up 1. 10%.
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5808, up 0.17%; Corn 1938, up by 0.78%; Palm oil 4824, up 0.71%; Cotton 15650, up by 0.35%; Zheng Mai 2557, up 0.27%; Sugar 5220, flat; Apple 10900, down 1.38%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 15, up by 0.22%; USD/RMB 6.93, up 0.03%; USD/HK$ 7.84, down 0.03%.
Main recommendations
1, GDP in the first three quarters increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the downward pressure on the economy still exists.
Event: June 65438+1October 65438+September, the National Bureau of Statistics released data, and the GDP in the first three quarters was 650,899.9 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year. Quarterly, it increased by 6.8% in the first quarter, 6.7% in the second quarter and 6.5% in the third quarter.
Comments: According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was lower than expected. Considering the steady growth of consumption and the strong resilience of real estate investment, we believe that it is unlikely that the GDP growth rate will continue to decline rapidly in the future, but the tense trade friction between China and the United States will bring great uncertainty to external demand. Considering the drag of trade friction on the economy, we expect the GDP growth rate to remain at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of this year. In order to cope with the pressure of further downward economic growth at the end of this year and early next year, it is necessary to adjust macro policies in a timely and appropriate manner. It is expected that macro policies will be more targeted in the future, including a series of specific short-term policies and corresponding medium-and long-term countermeasures.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. With the introduction of the policy of limiting production in many places, the price of cement is expected to continue to climb.
Event: Recently, Tangshan City, Anhui Province, Heilongjiang Province and other regions have successively issued plans to limit cement production in autumn and winter, and will implement peak-shifting production.
Comments: With the introduction of the autumn and winter production restriction policy, prices are expected to rise further. At present, the mainstream ex-factory price of P.C32.5R bags is around 350 yuan/ton; The mainstream ex-factory price of P.O42.5 bulk is around 450 yuan/ton, which has increased greatly since this year. At present, the peak season of cement industry has arrived. The data shows that the cement prices in Tianjin, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui, Guangxi, Hunan and other places rose 10 yuan -30 yuan/ton in the last week. Judging from the winter peak-shifting production schemes introduced in various places, the implementation time is mostly in early or middle June 1 1. The expectation of reduced supply may push the cement price to continue to climb. The rise in cement prices has made the performance of related listed companies bright.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Market review
1, Market Comment: The combination boxing of policy stability was released, which greatly boosted confidence and the rebound space is expected to be further opened.
On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose 4%, and the Shanghai Composite Index recovered 2650 points. On the disk, supported by a series of favorable policies over the weekend, the two cities opened higher and went higher. The collective daily limit of the brokerage sector boosted the morale of many parties and industry stocks rose across the board. The total turnover of the two cities exceeded 400 billion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2,654.88 points, up 4.09%, with a turnover of 1 973,438+0 billion yuan; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 7748.82 points, up 4.89%, with a turnover of 224.76438+09 billion yuan. Business board newspaper 13 14.95 points, up 5.2 1%, with a turnover of 7281200 million yuan. The strong rebound of the market swept away the gloom of the recent decline, but it is clear that the essence of the market is rebound rather than reversal. At present, the market has entered a period of intensive policy stability, and individual stocks will differentiate again after a large-scale oversold rebound, and the risk exposure of problem enterprises has not ended. It is suggested to use this round of policy stability to avoid rallies, pay attention to the financial sector with low valuation and expand the consumer sector with good domestic demand. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro perspective: the State Council: Five policies, such as stabilizing the market, should be implemented quickly and solidly.
10 10 On October 20th, the State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee held the 10th special meeting on preventing and resolving financial risks, focusing on analyzing the economic and financial situation in the third quarter and doing a good job in further improving the financial environment of enterprises and preventing and resolving financial risks. The meeting emphasized that all sectors of society are most concerned about the implementation of promised policies and measures. The five policies announced in 65438+ 10/9, such as stabilizing the market, improving the basic market system, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises and the development of private enterprises, and opening wider to the outside world, should be put into place quickly and solidly.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
Securities industry: the performance has been greatly improved month-on-month, and leading brokers with excellent fundamentals have been selected.
As of the evening of 10 and 15, 30 directly listed securities firms disclosed their financial data in September, with total monthly revenue/net profit15.4 billion/5.5 billion, +78 1%/+2 15.2% from the previous month. On a comparable scale, the total revenue/net profit of 26 companies in September was 14 1 billion/5.2 billion, which was-19.4%/-28.6% year-on-year; The total revenue/net profit of 25 companies in the first nine months was112.5 billion/41900 million, which was-13.8%/-23% year-on-year. Leading brokers have excellent fundamentals and their performance has continued to improve substantially.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)