First, the coal market was cold at the beginning of the year, and prices entered a rapid decline channel.
At the beginning of the new year, the long-term cooperative price of large coal enterprises in the first quarter was 590 yuan/ton, far lower than the 63 1 yuan/ton set at the end of 20 13. Subsequently, domestic coal prices fell precipitously, and the price index of thermal coal around Bohai Sea plummeted one after another, gradually devouring the rising space in the fourth quarter of 2065,438+03. As of March 26th, 5500K closed at 530 yuan/ton, which was significantly lower 10 yuan/ton than 630 yuan/ton at the end of 20 13, with a decrease of 16%.
1. Imported coal is delivered centrally, and the pattern of oversupply is prominent.
Domestic coal prices rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 20 14. Imported coal has once again become an effective substitute for domestic coal supply, and the quantity of imported coal has started to rise steadily. Since February, 20 13, it has hit a record high for two consecutive months, in which the imported coal that arrived at the end of 20 14 and 14 caused great pressure on the domestic market, and the overall supply in the domestic market was sharp.
2. The overall demand for coal slowed down, and the inflated price was quickly squeezed out.
After New Year's Day, coal consumption once again entered a downturn. Compared with abundant supply, the demand side obviously does not match. After 20 14 1, the production of steel, building materials, chemical industry and other industries all entered the off-season, and the demand for coal was limited. The demand mainly comes from the increase of residents' electricity consumption brought by the coming of winter. However, at the end of 20 13, after the power plant actively replenished the warehouse, the inventory was still high. At the end of 1, the national coal inventory of key power plants was 84.9 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the end of 20 13. At the same time, with the approach of the Lunar New Year, daily consumption has entered the downward channel, and the unsynchronized production and demand has increased the downward pressure on coal prices, and the inflated domestic coal prices have been quickly squeezed out by the market.
20 14 domestic coal market opened in depression. At this stage, after the downward kinetic energy is fully released, the coal price has a certain bottom support, but the downstream demand is insufficient and the environmental protection pressure in various places is increasing, and the basic energy consumption is suppressed, and the domestic coal price continues to hover at a low level.
Second, logistics constraints support weak and stable prices, and domestic trade prices are slowly rising.
After the partial release of market pessimism, large coal enterprises slightly raised their sales prices, which released a positive signal for the market and had a certain foundation for stabilization. Subsequently, the price index of thermal coal around Bohai Sea rose for two consecutive periods, stabilized again in the middle and late period, and domestic coal prices entered a slow climbing stage. As of May 28th, the price index of thermal coal around Bohai Sea closed at 537 yuan/ton, up by 7 yuan/ton or 1% compared with 530 yuan/ton at the end of March.
1, the cost support function is enhanced, and the logistics bottom price is guaranteed.
After three months of continuous decline in market prices, the price level of some kinds of coal has dropped to the lowest level of 20 13 years, and the pressure on the coal supply side is great. In addition, since February of 15, the railway coal freight rate has been generally raised, and a considerable number of small and medium-sized mining enterprises in northern Shanxi and western Mongolia have encountered difficulties in operating coal collection (transportation) stations or coal yards, and their capacity withdrawal has accelerated, which has strengthened the supporting role of costs on coal prices. At the same time, during the routine maintenance of Daqin Line in April, the railway coal shipments decreased, which led to the reduction of coal stocks in major shipping ports in the north, promoted the increase of coal supply and demand activity, and formed a bottom uplift for the coastal coal prices that were constantly looking for the bottom.
2. In the first quarter, the price of the medium and long-term association was basically finalized, and the power plant resumed procurement.
The long-standing coal-electricity contract price made concessions after the market fell one after another. Bohai thermal coal price index 2065438+the comprehensive average price in the fourth quarter of 2003 is the final signing price, which has been recognized by power enterprises. The game dispute of coal-fired power enterprises around the contract price has come to an end temporarily, which has released a positive and stable signal to the market and provided a reference for the bottom of domestic coal prices. Some power plants began to honor key contracts and resume domestic coal procurement.