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Why do retail investors always lose money in the stock market
The so-called "retail thinking" is actually not limited to investors in the stock market. Most of us are more or less influenced by the so-called "retail thinking" when dealing with our own or family assets.

The first typical example is that I have no concept of time when I want to invest, and I can't wait to buy the stock I want to buy in one minute. I can't wait to go up by 20% the next day and double it in a month when I buy stocks.

However, the same investor is fickle about holding stocks, just like a monkey's ass-he can't sit for long. As short as a few months, as long as no more than three years.

This problem is not unique to China people. According to Dalba's quantitative analysis of American fund investors, the average term of American stock or bond funds is three years. In other words, for most people, they will sell their funds and buy a new one every three years. The return at this working frequency can be imagined.

Buffett once said that if you haven't thought about holding a stock for at least ten years, then don't consider buying it. That's the truth.

The second example is a naive understanding of the relationship between returns and risks in capital markets (such as stock market, bond market and housing market). Friends who don't know much about investment, most of the first questions asked about investment are: how much is the return? As the saying goes, novices chase returns, and old birds look at risks. There are many high-return activities in this world. For example, you can open a noodle restaurant in Iraq or dig coal in Shanxi. In the face of such an example, many people can easily see that such a return can be achieved by taking extremely high risks. But in the face of financial investment, many people have forgotten this most important principle. I have a more detailed explanation on this issue here: how to find an asset allocation scheme with an average annual rate of return 10%? -Wu Zhijian's answer

For example, many people choose bond funds, and the first thing they look at is income. 6% bond fund is definitely better than 4% bond fund, but I don't know that the extra 2% may need to bear higher risks, such as longer duration, lower bond rating, or some foreign exchange risks. From the perspective of market efficiency, if you invest in 4% low-risk bond portfolio or 6% high-risk bond portfolio, you have no advantage. Low risk, so low return; The return is high and you need to take higher risks to get it.

The third example is that the expectation of return is unrealistic. Everyone wants to get a high return, the higher the better, there is no upper limit. This is a common public psychology. But few people will calm down and ask themselves this question: what is the most likely way for me to get high returns?

I believe different people will have different answers to this question. Many people will turn to the lottery, or start a business, or stocks, or futures, or invest in other fund managers, and so on. Unfortunately, these ideas are both naive and ridiculous. In fact, if a person wants to get a high return, the most practical way is to sell his specialty, get income (such as salary) that matches his specialty, and save the extra income. There is a best-selling book in America called Millionaire Next Door. In the book, the author studied hundreds of millionaires and reached a conclusion similar to the above statement.

Many people may think it strange for me to say this. Then listen to me slowly.

There is a specialization in the industry. In a mature and stable economy, everyone does his job well, and gains his own reward by exchanging with others (for example, you cut someone's hair or repair electrical appliances) or institutions (for example, you work for a company/school/government). The so-called 360 lines, the line is the champion. As we all know, the most practical way to improve one's bargaining power or to repay one's time and labor is to improve one's professional skills, gain recognition from others, and then raise one's hourly wage.

Stock trading is also a major. Most investors come from different industries, but it is as unrealistic to expect them to have superb stock trading skills and profit from them as it is to ask everyone to have Messi's skills. Let's go back to the industry we focus on and think about this problem. What do you think if a buddy who knows nothing about your industry, has not learned any skills or read any books comes up and says he wants to share a piece of the action with you, or even get a higher salary than you, completely ignoring that you have studied hard in your industry for so many years? Do you want to curse?

But the funny thing is that most people have different views on the stock market. I don't know where they get their confidence. I feel that even if I don't spend too much time studying and improving, I have the ability to get better returns than others. Of course, there is a term in behavior called overconfidence to describe such psychological weakness. In fact, most people will be affected by overconfidence.

For example, I am here to ask, what do you think of your stock selection ability?

Answer: Above the average level.

B. Below average

Most people will choose a, and few people will choose b, even though we all know that half of them belong to B.

Back to the topic, I mean, without the knowledge reserve beyond ordinary people, the spirit of studying day and night and continuous training, it is simply an idiotic dream to get better returns than the whole market (that is, others).

But a deeper truth that more people don't understand is that no one forces you to get better returns than others. In fact, for most people, it is the most practical expectation to obtain the average market return (such as the return of Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 index). From the perspective of personal competitive advantage, if you really want to get rich, the more reliable way is to study your good job and enhance your value. For example, doctors strive to improve their medical skills and knowledge, teachers strive to improve their teaching level, accountants strive to obtain their own professional certificates, and become familiar with various accounting software, and so on.

But getting the average market return means that you need to understand the unique volatility and risks of the capital market. Need to know some basic financial management principles, such as cost control, diversification and effective system. They are not complicated, but you need some perseverance to stick to them for a long time.

References:

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Wu Zhijian: Little Turtle's investment wisdom: How to overcome the strong with the weak in investment?

Wu Zhijian: Little Turtle's Investment Wisdom II: The Survival Rule of Jungle Investment