Main recommendations
Statistics Bureau: From May 438 to February, the national economy withstood the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Statistics Bureau: The sales price of commercial housing rose steadily in February.
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Market review
Market comments: Short-term operation should not be radical, reasonable position control and defensive operation, and the medium and long-term layout can still be optimized.
Macro view: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, and the US stock futures index plummeted and melted.
Pharmaceutical industry: the correction of the market, the strong pricing power of the global industrial chain, and the cost performance of leading investment driven by domestic demand are prominent.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 347.98, down1.87%; Copper 42660, down1.52%; Rebar 35 13, up 0.80%; Rubber 10480, down 0.29%; The PVC index was 6240, down by 0.08%; Zheng Chun 1858, down 0.43%; Shanghai Aluminum 12825, down 0.39%; Shanghai nickel 99300, up1.49%; Iron ore was 644.5, up 0.16%; Coke 1846.5, up 0.60%; Coking coal 1268.5, up by 0.20%; Brent oil 34. 1 1, down10.94%; Rubber board 180.80, down 4.24%; Bank of Shanghai 3568, down 6.01%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5282, up 0.53%; Corn 1980, down 0.30%; Palm oil 4580, down 0.69%; Zheng Mian 1 1625, down 2.64%; Zhengmai 25 12, down 0.28%; White sugar 5486, up 0.27%; Apple 6956, up 3.37%; Jujube 10365, down 0.24%;
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 12, up by 0.69%; USD/RMB 6.99, down 0.18%; USD/HK$ 7.77, down 0.03%.
Second, the key recommendation
1, Bureau of Statistics:1-In February, the national economy withstood the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Event: From June to February, 5438+0, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 brought great impact to the economic operation. But in general, the impact of the epidemic is short-term, external and controllable. At present, the spread of the epidemic has been basically contained, and the situation of prevention and control has gradually improved. China's basic livelihood security is strong, the overall social situation remains stable, and the long-term fundamentals and internal upward trend of the economy have not changed. The national economy has withstood the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Comments: From the data of/kloc-0 published by the National Bureau of Statistics and February, it can be seen that the epidemic has caused a great short-term impact on the economy. However, driven by the current resumption of work and production, it is expected that the economy will resume growth from March. Considering that the epidemic is a one-off impact, it will not fundamentally shake the long-term performance of the economy. In addition, the counter-cyclical regulation policy is likely to continue to increase, and the market resilience is expected to continue to appear, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market outlook.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. Bureau of Statistics: In February, the sales price of commercial housing rose steadily and fell steadily.
Event: The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on the real estate market. All localities and departments resolutely implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee for overall prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development, and timely introduce a series of policies and measures to ensure the sustained, stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In February, the real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose steadily and fell steadily.
Comments: Affected by the epidemic, the investment and sales of real estate development dropped significantly in the first two months, but the price remained firm. Considering that the demand will not disappear, it will only be delayed, and it is expected that there will be a recovery growth in the subsequent sales end. At present, the valuation of major leading companies is at a low level, with high dividend yield and good investment value.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market comments: Short-term operation should not be radical, reasonable position control and defensive operation, and the medium and long-term layout can still be optimized.
On Monday, A shares continued to pull back, and the three major stock indexes fell sharply after opening higher. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.40% to 2,789.25 points, falling below the 2,800-point mark. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.34% to 10253.28; The GEM index fell 5.90% to 19 10.77. The northbound funds flowed out nearly 9 billion yuan throughout the day. On the disk, pharmaceutical manufacturing, real estate, textile and garment industries were slightly stronger, while communications, semiconductors, diversified finance, securities firms and automobiles were among the top losers. Short-term market risk appetite is relatively declining, and market sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is expected that A shares will be under pressure in the short term before the overseas epidemic is effectively contained, but from the aspects of epidemic control and oil price impact, A shares are relatively better than the external market. At present, China's macro-policy is in the process of countercyclical adjustment. The intensification of global interest rate cuts has further opened up the space for domestic monetary policy. Interest rate cuts, RRR cuts and fiscal policies are worth looking forward to, and the medium and long-term prospects of A shares are still positive. It is suggested to pay attention to the liquidity of overseas markets (especially Europe) and the potential risks in the credit market. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and sort out the market. In operation, it is recommended not to be radical in the short term, continue to flexibly control positions, and participate in appropriate bands. If there is a sharp drop in the medium and long term, we can pay reasonable attention to new infrastructure, securities, biomedicine, military industry and other sectors.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro view: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, and the US stock futures index plummeted and melted.
Event: After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 32 basis points, and both US stock Dow Jones index futures and Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell sharply and melted again. Last week, Beijing time, the US stock index futures have triggered trading restrictions for many times due to plunging or skyrocketing, and there was a fuse.
Comments: On June 5438+05, the Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates on a large scale, greatly reducing the target range of the federal funds interest rate to 0-0.25%. In response to the stock market crash, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 3, which is very rare. The COVID-19 epidemic has caused social and economic losses to many countries, including the United States, and the global financial environment has also been greatly affected. This interest rate cut will help support the US economy, stabilize the job market and maintain the inflation target. Judging from the news, it can only be a medium-and long-term potential positive, and the short-term positive effect on the market is still limited, so it is difficult to have an immediate effect.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Pharmaceutical industry: the correction of the market, the strong pricing power of the global industrial chain, and the cost performance of leading investment driven by domestic demand are prominent.
The market has been adjusted by the influence of the external market, and the leading investment in the pharmaceutical segmentation field driven by the strong pricing power of the global industrial chain and domestic demand is outstanding. Secondary market level: under the circumstances that the external market is blown by overseas influence, the domestic market is deeply adjusted and the domestic epidemic situation is stabilized, the global industrial chain has strong pricing power, and the leading investment in the pharmaceutical segment driven by domestic demand is cost-effective.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)