Duan Xiaohu, an analyst at East Asia Qianhai Securities, pointed out in the research report released on June 27th/KLOC-0 that after the competition for silicon materials intensifies, the signing of large orders and long orders will help to form a competitive advantage and provide sufficient guarantee for future performance. The downstream enterprises in the industrial chain choose to lock the upstream silicon material production capacity in advance. In 2022, about 92% of the output of silicon materials industry has been locked by downstream enterprises.
"Lock the quantity without locking the price, and purchase in bulk" is a long single purchase method of silicon materials adopted by many companies. Analysts pointed out that although the signing of 1 1 month long orders has started recently, the overall signing progress has slowed down slightly compared with previous months, and the 1 1 month long orders of some silicon manufacturers are still unclear.
It is worth noting that on June 25th 10, Daquan Energy and TCL Zhonghuan respectively announced the signing of a contract for the sale of silicon materials, but Daquan Energy calculated the purchase amount at the current price of 303,000 yuan/ton; According to the June price of 5438+00 published by PV Infolink, TCL Zhonghuan forecasts the price of polycrystalline silicon compact from 2022 to 2027, and the calculated average price is146,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated amount of the former is 107.52% higher than that of the latter. Analysts said that the price of silicon materials will enter the downward range next year, which is the same as expected. It is of little practical significance to use the current unit price as a price reference for the next five or even many years.
The photovoltaic industry chain is divided into four parts from top to bottom: silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery chips and components. Since the beginning of this year, the price of silicon has continued to rise, and recently it has hit a new high in ten years. Up to now, the price of single crystal replenishment in several major silicon factories in China has remained at the level of last month, and the price of single crystal replenishment is above 306 yuan/kg.
From the past, the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers are strongly linked, and silicon wafers generally follow the rise and fall of silicon materials. However, in the case that the upstream silicon price has not been clearly adjusted, Longji Green Energy offered stable prices for silicon wafers of various sizes in June last week at 5438+0 1, and this week, another domestic leader, TCL Zhonghuan, lowered the price of silicon wafers for the first time in 10. Cailian reporter learned from the company that the main reason is that the supply of upstream silicon materials is more adequate than that in the third quarter, and the processing rate of the company has increased.
Experts in the industry believe that the first price reduction of silicon wafers is a direct indicator of the feedback of silicon material price reduction, and now the central government has given the industry a clear signal. According to the previous report of Cailian, the price of low-quality silicon materials has been lowered, but the volume and price in the first two months of the fourth quarter have been basically determined, and there will be a wide range of price cuts from 65438+February. In addition, at the end of 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to encourage polysilicon enterprises to reasonably control the product price level.
The reporter of Cailian learned from the industry that the factor supporting the rising price of silicon materials is that the supply is in short supply in stages, but this situation is easing, and upstream manufacturers cannot always "lie down and earn". The research report released by Zheshang Securities 10 10 on October 23rd shows that the output of silicon materials is about to be released. It is estimated that the production capacity of silicon materials will increase by 25% in the fourth quarter, and the market expectation and expectation are strong.
As of 202 1, Tongwei shares have the largest market share, reaching 15%, while Daquan Energy/Xinte Energy/Jiangsu Zhongneng/east hope /GCL Technology have market shares of14%/13, respectively.
Duan Xiaohu pointed out that the overheating cycle of silicon materials began at 202 1, and it is predicted that the global market space of photovoltaic silicon materials will reach 946,400 tons and the output will be about 9 1.9 million tons in 2022, and the supply and demand of silicon materials will be in a tight balance throughout the year. In 2023, the market space will reach 6.5438+0.2558 million tons, and the production capacity will exceed 6.5438+0.8 million tons. The centralized release of a large amount of production capacity is expected to improve the supply and demand pattern.
Analysts believe that crazy profits lead to crazy capacity expansion is normal. After the supply of industrial silicon returns to normal, at the end of 2022, silicon materials below 100 yuan/kg can also be expected.
The expansion period of silicon material 18 months is longer than other links, which does not match the demand of photovoltaic installed capacity. Another analyst pointed out that although the new capacity of silicon materials continues to be released, the supply of silicon materials may still be in a tight state in the fourth quarter, and the price of silicon materials may still have some support. Entering the relatively off-season of photovoltaic industry in the first quarter of next year, the price of industrial chain is expected to start to decline further.
In addition, strong downstream demand forces the price of silicon materials to fall. According to industry insiders, the domestic demand for centralized photovoltaic power plants is objective, but the price reduction of silicon materials is needed to stimulate demand. If the price of silicon material falls to a certain reasonable range, centralized photovoltaic power station will usher in explosive installation.
From the performance point of view, in the first three quarters of this year, the distribution trend of photovoltaic industry chain profits to the upstream is very obvious, and the profit of silicon plates in the industry accounts for more than 40%; The leading performance is outstanding, and companies with a market value of more than 100 billion "share" nearly 60% of the industry's net profit.
However, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2023 may see a cliff-like landslide. The research report released on October 28th by Minsheng Securities analyst Deng Yongkang 65438/KLOC-0 pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of Tongwei's net profit dropped from 252.6% in 2022 to -26.8%, and the research report released on October 28th by Huajin Securities analyst Liu Jing 65438/KLOC-0 predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of Daquan Energy would drop from 233.3% to -20.8%.
Tongwei shares resist risks through integrated layout. Deng Yongkang pointed out that Tongwei shares accelerated the downstream extension of the industrial chain. In the future, the production capacity of self-owned components is expected to give full play to the advantages of silicon materials and large-size battery chips, form a virtuous circle of upstream and downstream verification, and accelerate the process of process improvement, cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
In the third quarter, silicon enterprises still maintained a high gross profit margin, but industry insiders judged that the gross profit margin of about 30% of silicon enterprises in the future is a reasonable level. Taking the size of M 10 as an example, the calculation data of Guolian Securities show that the gross profit margin of silicon materials is as high as 83.9%, while the gross profit margins of downstream silicon wafers, batteries and components are only 4.2%, 7.8% and-1.5% respectively.
Analysts pointed out that the upstream price reduction is expected to be gradually realized, and the profitability of downstream batteries and components that were once suppressed will also be improved. Some battery companies have shown this trend in the third quarterly report. Guosen Securities believes that the battery link has strong bargaining power, and the component link signing cycle has futures attributes, which is expected to benefit more.