Since 12, methanol has been half dead, and the price of imported goods at the port has been maintained at 2600-2800 for a year and a half. And imported goods are often upside down in 200 yuan. During this period, many importers can't play any more. In addition, since 2008, China's economy has never been better, and the demand is actually very poor, so the price has not been raised, but at the same time, the price is supported by the import cost, which is not lower than 2,600. During this time, everyone is suffering, financiers play a leading role in the market, and the continuous buying of financiers still supports the import price.
2.20 13 due to the continuous sluggish demand, the port price began to decline slowly, and the feeling of cutting meat with a blunt knife was uncomfortable. Many shippers are throwing goods one after another, and in June, the price dropped to around 2500. But in fact, things are slowly changing. First of all, Iran, the world's major methanol producer, stopped supplying natural gas raw materials to methanol plants for various reasons (various reasons need to be introduced separately), and Iran's methanol operating rate will be the lowest. The methanol plant in Malaysia also stopped production for some reason, and the methanol supply pattern was broken.
This reason is lagging behind, and it didn't begin to show its power until June. In the first half of 20 13, the busiest thing for port traders was to re-export the port bonded goods to Southeast Asia, the United States and South Korea with higher prices (because the supply was obviously reduced, the economic recovery in these places was also better than that in China), and the profits of methanol traders improved obviously, so everyone took pains to re-export the port bonded goods that they thought were losing money, and still made some profits. Another is that the methanol-to-olefin plant was put into operation, and a large amount of methanol was purchased from the port as raw material, and the port inventory dropped sharply. In April, Iran announced that the delivery of the contracted goods was delayed, and the whole market found that the port was out of stock and could not buy the goods. At this time, the whole world suddenly realized and rushed to buy methanol. The dollar price of methanol has soared from $330 to a maximum of $500, and it is still not available.
At this time, China's huge coal-to-methanol production capacity began to be released. Due to the sharp drop in coal price, the domestic methanol production cost also decreased, so buyers flocked to China, and the domestic methanol price began to rise, from 2,500 at the end of May to 4,000-4,300 in September. The original inland Xinjiang coal-to-methanol and Inner Mongolia coal-to-methanol can be started at full capacity and transported to the port for sale. This wave of market has saved the coal chemical industry with overcapacity.