20 12 securities investment analysis 20 12 is the second year of the 12th five-year plan. The country's overall principles and policies have basically maintained a steady development along the established direction, GDP growth will slow down appropriately, CPI will fall back, and the international situation is still not optimistic. The contradiction between the western economy and the southern economy is becoming increasingly obvious. Regional and maritime security and peace remain grim. The quantitative easing monetary policy of the international community will be further expanded, the appreciation and depreciation of RMB will still fluctuate obviously, and relations with neighboring countries will be slightly improved. However, face-changing will still be quite frequent, and the synchronization of national development and improvement of people's livelihood will be further reflected. Although the international and domestic situation is still grim, I believe that under the leadership of the Party's purpose of serving the people wholeheartedly, China's economy will certainly continue to develop rapidly! With the state supporting insurance funds to further participate in the securities market, the monetary policy in 20 12 will be more relaxed than that in 20 1 1 year. In view of the quantitative easing of western capital, the overall depreciation trend of RMB is obvious, and the international prices of oil, gold and commodities will rise again after a slight correction, and the stock market will go out of a relatively moderate upward trend compared with 2009. The bond market declined slightly, the recovery of the real economy accelerated, the crackdown on shady transactions in the securities market increased, and the pressure on IPO and non-lifting of the ban was reduced. In the specific investment operation, we can refer to this idea. Before the bottom of the stock market, we can open an empty order in stock index futures every time, and then open more orders after the bottom. When the complicated situation in Europe and America continues, combined with the analysis of technical trends, empty orders can be opened in the electronic trading market of precious metals such as gold and silver. The second half of the year may coincide with a lower opening and more orders. In the case of global currency devaluation as a whole, we can increase our holdings in physical gold investment, and the electronic trading market of bulk commodities will continue to decline moderately. Before the stock market has bottomed out, you can choose to sell government bonds at a high level at the corresponding time. Participation in funds is basically the same as that in the stock market. At present, it is not suitable for participation, and bond funds should also be thrown or redeemed on rallies. After the stock market reverses, you can choose some relatively stable stock funds. When the situation is good, I mainly participate in closed-end funds, and when the situation is bad, I mainly participate in open-end funds. It is best not to participate in anything and choose a favorable trading market to short. The order of participating in the stock market is GEM, SME board, GEM, SME board, big market and super market. This is 20 12 overall related securities investment ideas for reference.

The specific analysis ideas are as follows.

First, the relevant state departments recently announced that insurance funds will enter the stock market on 20 12, but did not specify when to enter the stock market, which left great suspense. If it is ok to enter the stock market at the beginning of the year, if it is only in the second quarter, third quarter or even fourth quarter to rescue and support the market, won't it still lose a lot for investors? Therefore, we need to be cautious about the stock market before the market bottoms out. During this period, the competition between the long and short sides is definitely fierce, but no matter how this dance is danced, the empty side is definitely dominant before bottoming out, and many parties will gradually fight back after bottoming out. Therefore, the same is true in the operation of the stock index futures market. At present, it is suitable for opening positions on rallies and opening positions on dips after bottoming out. That's right.

Second, after the foreign exchange account is gradually withdrawn from China, the country's monetary policy will be relaxed accordingly. Therefore, bonds and deposit reserves will gradually decline. Therefore, the current bond market is at the top stage and should be reduced on rallies. The amplitude of RMB exchange rate will increase, which is mainly influenced by the loosening and tightening of mainstream western currencies. Just like two-person boxing, when others attack fiercely, we will defend, and when others retreat, we will attack. Therefore, the fluctuation of exchange rate is inevitable.

Third, the international gold price is mainly affected by the turmoil in Europe and America and the rise and fall of the US dollar. As the risk of financial crisis in Europe and America has not been effectively released, the overall situation in the Middle East and even the world is not in a variable. Therefore, physical gold and silver will still reflect the important function of maintaining and increasing value. On the contrary, due to the influence of the first round of quantitative easing in Europe and America, European and American currencies have depreciated to a certain extent. It is currently rebounding on the way to depreciation. Western currencies, such as the US dollar, will appreciate slightly, while the pre-golden period has been hitting a record high. Therefore, whether due to the appreciation and rebound of western currencies or the top of the electronic trading stage of gold, the electronic market of precious metals such as gold and silver will inevitably fall back, and the motivation for shorting will gradually emerge. Of course, Europe and the United States have already benefited from "quantitative easing". After the rebound, the impact of the second round of quantitative easing will appear. Combined with the situation in Syria and Iraq, gold prices will still emerge in the future.

Fourth, because the nature of the fund determines its investment direction, when buying a fund, the focus should be on the market trend of the relevant market. For example, buying stock funds should be combined with the stock market, while bond funds should consider the market trend of bonds, and monetary funds should weigh the exchange rate changes more. Therefore, from the current trend, stock funds are generally in a state of loss, and bond funds are generally in a state of profit. Money funds are mixed as a whole, and the focus here is on the strength of fund managers and the comprehensive situation of company operations. Then, as our operation in fund investment, we should buy stock funds when the stock market bottoms out, but we should sell bond funds at present and so on.

Fifth, as some commodity markets directly related to people's basic life, large-scale speculation will not be allowed due to the relevant control of national policies. Therefore, investment opportunities are relatively few, and investment opportunities are more used as a tool to maintain and increase value. For example, in the case that the market trend of related high-yield investment such as stocks is extremely weak, appropriate intervention can be considered. In the future, oil prices will go out of the opposite trend with the US dollar and other currencies. Therefore, it can be imagined that in the future, with the further increase of the quantitative easing of the US dollar, the international oil price will definitely rise again, and agricultural and sideline products, as investment targets with strong pressure resistance, will also rise moderately and continuously, but for the needs of people's livelihood, the rise will not be too fast. Here we can focus on the investment of agricultural stocks. In the case of slow rise of bulk agricultural products, agricultural stocks will definitely be very strong.

Sixth, let's pay attention to the stock market sector. 20 12 in the selection of stock investment sectors, especially in the first half of the year, we should focus on brokerage, real estate, agriculture, education and media, environmental protection, military industry, water and electricity, insurance, etc. Other sectors that have fallen sharply have a large degree of oversold rebound. With the arrival of a new bull market, the brokerage sector, which has been in a state of decline for a long time, is bound to usher in a strong expectation of rising. Therefore, the initial increase was considerable. Real estate started due to the sharp drop in house prices, indicating that the national regulatory policies began to bear fruit. With the continuous downward adjustment of housing prices, there will be a strong reversal of the real estate sector. After the house price bottoms out, it will start a new rise. But this process may be a bit long. As mentioned above, the agricultural field will continue to be strengthened, and the educational media is one of the new pillar industries of the national economy determined by the central government. At present, the growth rate of the plate is still in a low position, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future. Environmental protection is a "25,000-mile long March" and will continue to advance. The military sector is dominated by marine equipment and aerospace military industry and will continue to perform well in the future. In addition, the general trend of hydropower and insurance will continue to rise. In addition, in some stocks that peaked in the early and mid-term, the sectors that have fallen sharply at present also have the opportunity to rebound in stages. However, before these sectors have bottomed out, the overall trend will still be downward. The banking and oil sectors will continue to improve, but the extent is small and the time is long.

Well, the above are my basic views and personal views on the trend of 20 12 securities investment market for your reference!