In 20 19, the proportions of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries were 7. 1%, 39% and 53.9% respectively. Compared with 2003, the primary and secondary industries decreased by 5.3 and 6.6 percentage points respectively, and the tertiary industry increased by 1 1.9 percentage points. At present, it is the Spring Festival, and the tertiary industry is in great demand, so the workers have failed to return to the city. Therefore, the impact of the initial judgment on the economy will be greater than that in 2003.
2. Impact on the meso-industry: catering, tourism, movies, transportation, education and training industries have the greatest impact, and medical care, online games and other industries have benefited. The box office of the Spring Festival in 20 19 was 5.859 billion yuan, and the basic particles of the Spring Festival in 2020 were not collected. During the Spring Festival holiday of 20 19, the national retail catering enterprises achieved sales of about1005 billion yuan, which was seriously damaged in the same period in 2020. During the Spring Festival holiday in 20 19, the total number of tourists in China was 4150,000, and the tourism income was 51390 million yuan, which was significantly lower than that in the same period in 2020. 1 At the end of the year, the traffic volume of the transportation industry decreased by about 70%. The real estate industry suspended sales activities. Industries such as construction, finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are affected. Simply estimate, movie box office is 7 billion (market forecast)+catering retail is 500 billion (assuming half)+tourism market is 500 billion (completely frozen). In just seven days, the direct economic losses of these three industries alone will exceed 1 trillion, accounting for 4.6% of 2018 trillion GDP in the first quarter of 2009.
3. Impact on micro-individuals: private enterprises, small and micro enterprises, employees with flexible salary system and migrant workers are more damaged.
What is the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy? How to deal with it (the picture comes from the picture network)
4. Impact on the capital market: In the short term, it is good for the bond market and bad for the stock market (except medicine and online entertainment), but in the medium term, it still depends on the economic fundamentals and trends.
5. Annual impact: As the response is faster, the efforts to fight the epidemic are stronger. Optimistic estimation of the impact is mainly in the first quarter, but we should also be careful about the second and third situations.
First, the prevention and control was timely and effective, and the epidemic lasted for a short time. The impact on the economy was mainly limited to the first quarter. The epidemic peak appeared in mid-February, then gradually declined and ended in March-April. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters will be 4%, 6%, 5.8% and 5.6% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate will be 5.4%.
Second, due to the floating population, the low temperature conducive to the spread of the virus and the poor prevention and control during the Spring Festival, the epidemic may last until the second quarter, and finally it will end around June with the help of all parties' efforts and rising temperatures. The long-term epidemic will affect the economic growth in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters will be 4%, 5%, 6% and 5.8% respectively, and it will be 5.2% for the whole year.
Three: Considering the virus's long incubation period, strong infectivity, possibility of future mutation, re-spread and spread after resumption of work, and possible omissions in prevention and control, the epidemic may last longer than expected, so we should fully estimate that the evolution of the situation may be more severe than the second one, and adhere to the bottom line thinking. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters will be 4%, 5%, 5% and 6% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate will be 5%.
6. Long-term impact: government governance will be more transparent, and the production and living formats will develop intelligently and online, brewing opportunities in risks or giving birth to new formats.