It is expected that China's interest rate hike will be pushed to the European Central Bank
Yin Zhongli, deputy director of the Financial Market Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that after the National People's Congress this year, China's central bank is expected to raise interest rates immediately, but due to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, China's rate hike is expected to be half a beat. He believes that China may not raise interest rates before the announcement of the European Central Bank. "This sudden disaster in Japan is unexpected. We need some time to observe its impact before making a decision."
External inflationary pressure is suspended.
The external environment of China's macro-economy began to change. After the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the global commodity market fell one after another. After the Japanese earthquake, the three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange once fell to the lowest point since last year's 65438+February 65438+June, and the crude oil futures on the new york Commercial Futures Exchange once hit the biggest one-day drop in the past five months.
Yin Zhongli pointed out that the pressure of imported inflation in China will be alleviated in the short term. As the third largest economy in the world, Japan's industrial production has stagnated due to major disasters, which will naturally reduce the demand for many bulk raw materials. However, Yin Zhongli said that the biggest inflation factor in China is still at home, so it is not expected that the tight monetary policy will be relaxed easily in the future.
Reconstruction pushes up global inflation expectations.
Many domestic and foreign institutions have pointed out that in the long run, when Japan's disaster has passed, its reconstruction process will once again push up global inflation expectations.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the post-disaster reconstruction process will promote the Japanese economy. In 2065,438+02, Japan's economic growth rate was raised from the previous forecast of 65,438+0.8% to 2.0%, and Citigroup also raised its forecast of Japan's economic growth rate from 65,438+0.9% to 2.65,438+0%.
As a major importer of global commodities, Japan needs a lot of raw materials for post-disaster economic development, which may push up prices. Liu Dongliang, an analyst in the financial market department of China Merchants Bank, pointed out that if Japan's nuclear leakage and power failure are quickly controlled within a certain range, it will still maintain a positive view on Japan's future economy, and even post-disaster reconstruction may boost Japan's long-term depressed investment level and trigger Japan's economic recovery in the next two to four quarters.
It takes time to judge accurately.
Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Securities of Renmin University of China, said that it will take some time to make an accurate judgment on the impact of the Japanese disaster, and many basic conditions needed for judgment are not yet available. If the nuclear leakage can be controlled in a short time, it will enter post-disaster reconstruction, so we can analyze and judge it with the help of the historical experience of the Hanshin earthquake in Japan.
As for the impact of the Japanese disaster on China's financial market, Zhao Xijun said, judging from the reaction of the global financial market, the regional correlation is obvious. Compared with European and American financial markets, the markets of Asian countries and regions around Japan are more affected by this disaster. He believes that as long as uncertainties such as nuclear leakage exist, it will be difficult to stabilize Asian markets such as China.