No, because the rise and fall of domestic oil prices and international oil prices are not parallel. Domestic oil prices are also affected by factors such as crude oil costs, processing plant costs, and gas station profits. In fact, the rise and fall of oil prices is greatly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If the situation continues to worsen, oil prices may still rise, but now it seems that Russia and Ukraine are more likely to reach a cease and desist agreement. In this case, the probability of oil prices falling will increase.
First of all, to clarify this issue, you need to know the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism. The National Development and Reform Commission said this: How the price is adjusted each time mainly depends on the average international oil price in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the 10 working days before that. The comparison of average values ??is not simply determined by changes in international oil prices in the days before the price adjustment.
Domestic oil prices were adjusted at midnight on March 18. Taking my area as an example, the latest price of No. 92 gasoline is 8.66 yuan/liter, the latest price of No. 95 gasoline is 9.27 yuan/liter, and the latest price of No. 98 gasoline is 9.27 yuan/liter. The latest price of gasoline is 9.98 yuan/liter
The domestic price adjustment is based on the 10 trading days before the crude oil price. Then extrapolating 10 working days forward from March 18, the crude oil price on March 4 is The current closing price of crude oil on March 17 is around $95. If the crude oil price remains near the current price, there should be a significant decline in domestic oil prices by March 31 when the domestic oil price is adjusted.
What caused controversy is that when the international oil price hit a historical high of 147 US dollars in 2008, the domestic oil price was only 6.3 yuan; now, the highest increase of WTI crude oil is only 115 US dollars, and the oil price has risen to 9 yuan.
Oil is actually the foundation of the economy. There is a ceiling for the rise of oil. If oil reaches more than 100 US dollars per barrel, capital can go short and kill long positions. At this time, oil fell to 50 US dollars a barrel. , there are many capitals that may increase, and they all think that oil should rise. As a result, U.S. capital still frantically shorts it, causing many people to bleed into rivers.
In fact, the reasonable price range of world oil prices should be between US$50 and US$70, which is more acceptable to oil-producing and consuming countries and can promote the world economy. However, capital is optimistic about this point, so going long and taking time disturbs the current economy and makes developing countries miserable. Some developing countries overreach themselves and want to earn a piece of the futures market, but in the end they lose everything, which is embarrassing. Experts become bricks and elites are worthless.
To summarize, oil is not a universal commodity. It is essentially a gift from the devil to mankind, because oil conflicts continue and all living beings are in ruins.