Due to the limited storage capacity, the cotton grade gradually declined, and the progress of purchasing and storage had slowed down significantly before the suspension of purchasing and storage on February 4. However, as of February 1, the national purchasing and storage turnover was 610.5 million tons, and China National Reserve became the largest concentration of cotton stocks in the world, and the cotton resources circulating in the domestic spot market (especially high-grade cotton) were in short supply.

Judging from a series of actions, the country is restricting the influx of imported cotton into China. For example, the adjusted sliding duties formula of 20 13 has increased the import cost of cotton, and the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Imported Cotton issued by AQSIQ 15 1 on February 1 has greatly strengthened the inspection of imported cotton. In this case, it is the national policy of issuing import quotas and selling reserve cotton that determines the domestic cotton supply.

At present, there are at least three pending policies: First, it is rumored that the sliding duties quota for general cotton import trade will be linked to the number of national reserves purchased, that is, for every 3 tons of national reserves purchased, the quota for imported cotton will be 1 ton. Second, it is rumored that the relevant government departments will dump some new cotton in March, and the new and old cotton will be matched at a ratio of 3:7, allowing them to enter the circulation market (that is, they can be used for futures and market delivery). Third, it is rumored that the temporary purchasing and storage price of cotton will be announced at the end of February, which will remain at 20,400 yuan/ton, but the quantity of purchasing and storage is not mentioned.

The author believes that although it is difficult to predict the policy direction in advance, it is impossible for the state to give up the survival of textile enterprises while protecting the interests of cotton farmers. In addition, the loss of cotton value caused by long storage time is also a huge cost for the country, so the new cotton dumping policy may not be groundless. Once the new cotton is officially circulated and listed, it can be delivered in the matching and futures market. The high price in futures will definitely attract cotton-related enterprises to register warehouse receipts or hedge futures in the futures market after the end of purchasing and storage on March 3 1 and the cancellation of old warehouse receipts. As a result, not only will the forced market not happen, but Zheng Mian will also face greater callback pressure in the case of weak fundamentals.