(1) The global financial crisis is mainly caused by the real estate bubble in the United States and the leverage of financial derivatives. The reason for this is the following：
1, the Fed's long-term low interest rate policy has caused the bubble of fixed assets investment and the false prosperity of the economy;
2. The weak financial supervision of derivatives and credit rating in the United States has led to the economic reappearance similar to the network bubble, which has deeply affected all countries in the world;
3. The United States underestimated the harm of the subprime mortgage crisis and failed to correct it in time and provide necessary support in the early stage, resulting in a situation that is difficult to clean up now;
(2) The consequences of the American financial crisis:
1, causing the decline of the real economy in the United States and even the world, and many seemingly powerful countries came to the brink of bankruptcy overnight;
2. The impact of this financial crisis is deeper and wider than the economic crisis of 1929-1933, because the current global economic integration has amplified the depth and breadth of the crisis;
(3) Forecast of American and global economic trends:
1. Although all countries in the world have vowed to unite to rescue the market and put forward an astronomical rescue plan, whether it is effective or not remains to be observed in the next few months. Moreover, the financial nationalization caused by the bailout, the source of funds needed for the bailout and its subsequent impact, the appropriateness of the bailout only for financial liquidity, and the future "bailout" of the real economy (such as the automobile industry) are all unknown.
2. Even if the global rescue is successful, it will take a long time, and a long-term economic recession is inevitable.
Second, the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on China's economy.
1. Because the capital account of China's balance of payments has not been fully opened, the scale of asset securitization is still in its infancy, and China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, these factors have protected China from the severe impact of this financial crisis;
2. However, the actual loss of China's financial assets in the United States is also expected to be huge, and the specific figures need to be tested and digested in the future; (For example, CIC's investment in Morgan Stanley, Blackstone and Monetary Fund has suffered heavy losses, and the losses of subprime loans and Lehman bonds held by major banks will also be huge, as can be seen from Ping An's huge investment losses of 90%)
3. Although China has not suffered a serious financial crisis, the global financial crisis and economic recession have also had a serious impact on China. The globalization of the global economy, the high degree of international division of labor, and China's long-term external economic development model have determined that China can no longer stand out. As the saying goes, "under the nest, there are no eggs left!"
The crisis of the world giants is beyond their own digestion. For example, the $700 billion bailout fund will definitely not pay the bill itself, and China is bound to become the last payer, just a matter of how much money;
Although China has taken a series of measures to try to solve the economic impact caused by insufficient external demand by starting strong domestic demand, it is too late. Can the long-term external demand-driven economy change in the short term? Moreover, China is facing the triple threat of inflation, deflation and stagflation, which will inevitably make it more difficult for China to formulate policies, so it is only the lesser of the two evils. But now consumers' psychological expectations have changed. Even if interest rates are cut continuously, it will be difficult to stimulate domestic demand in the short term, and economic slowdown or even short-term recession may occur.
Third, the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on the China stock market.
1. The direct impact of the global financial crisis is aimed at listed companies that rely heavily on exports and financial institutions that invest heavily overseas. This part of the loss cannot be completely predicted at present, and the final loss figure will also be astronomical. Moreover, the domino effect of the collapse of export-oriented enterprises will also be launched after the collapse of Hejun Group, and more export-oriented enterprises will inevitably die;
2. Although the banking industry was directly impacted by the financial crisis, due to the strict financial control in China, the losses were relatively small and the wading was not deep. In the medium and long term, China is expected to continue to cut interest rates. However, due to the changes in consumers' psychological expectations, more funds will temporarily flow back to banks in the short term, and the follow-up depends on how banks respond.
The winter of the real estate industry has just begun. In the past few years, due to overheated investment in fixed assets, inflation and appreciation of RMB, a large number of bubbles have emerged in the real estate industry. After the bubble burst, some unfavorable factors appeared one after another, such as the unfair land distribution system within the system (a large number of landlords appeared in the peak period, and the land price rose rapidly), the rising speed of house prices far exceeded the rising speed of consumers' wages, and the continuous decline of the stock market locked in a large amount of funds (the property income of consumers shrank seriously). But it is gratifying that the asset securitization reform in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, thus avoiding the subprime mortgage crisis similar to that in the United States.
4. The steel industry is affected by the crisis, which shows that the steel price continues to fall and the production capacity decreases. But as far as China's steel industry is concerned, due to China's expectation of stimulating domestic demand, it is bound to provide more public goods, and at the risk of falling into inflation again, * * * will also relax its investment in fixed assets. For the steel and machinery manufacturing industry, it is optimistic in the medium term, at least it will not fall seriously;
5. The impact of oil, coal and other energy industries will be long-term, manifested in the fact that energy prices will continue to fall (due to reduced demand) and the future risks will be at a medium level. It is also possible that the rapid start-up of domestic demand in China will not lead to the rapid decline of energy prices, and now most areas of China have entered the winter heating period, and the demand for energy in the next six months is stable and sustainable.
6. The precious metals and luxury goods industries such as gold are not optimistic in the medium term. The reason is that the price of gold has overdrawn its value preservation in the past, and the winter of gold and its luxury goods industry is coming soon. More funds will be withdrawn from this market, and consumers' purchases of physical objects will plummet;
Fourth, about rescuing the market.
1. Real estate industry: At present, the theory of saving the real estate industry is rampant. I think it is ridiculous to save the market at this time, which is a disguised transfer of interests and a waste of taxpayers' money.
⑴ Judging from the formation factors of real estate this winter, it is the above-mentioned overheated investment in fixed assets, inflation and the appreciation of China's currency that have produced a large number of bubbles. In the process of bubble formation, the huge profits of the real estate industry are well known, and this part of the profits must be retired under the regulation of the market;
⑵ At present, house prices are still too high relative to consumers' wages, especially in the later period of small and medium-sized cities, the real estate prices have not dropped significantly, and the future of the real estate industry should be decided by the market;
(3) The impact of the financial crisis on the real estate industry is mainly reflected in the lack of demand, but this is precisely caused by high housing prices. China people have a serious "buying plot", and their potential purchasing power is huge, just because the house price is too high. Once house prices return to a reasonable level, a large amount of purchasing power will naturally revive the real estate industry, so there is no need to rescue the market.