I. Macroeconomic factors
Macroeconomic factors directly or indirectly affect the company's operation, stock profitability and capital appreciation from different directions, affect residents' income and psychological expectations from different aspects, and have a considerable impact on the supply and demand of the stock market.
1 economic cycle
The economic cycle is characterized by alternating expansion and contraction. In the four stages of economic contraction, recovery, prosperity and recession, the periodic fluctuation of the stock market has become the most important factor to determine the long-term trend of stock prices. Through the analysis of GDP, economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and other indicators, we can judge the development stage of the economic cycle. Empirical analysis shows that the fluctuation of China stock market is about 4-6 months ahead of the macroeconomic cycle.
2. Currency changes
Currency changes include inflation and deflation. Inflation affects the economy in many ways. Generally speaking, it will affect the redistribution of income and property, change people's expectations of rising prices and affect the normal operation of social reproduction. Therefore, the impact of inflation on the stock price is also complicated. And deflation will have a negative impact on the economy. As far as China stock market is concerned, inflation occurs in a moderate range, and stock price fluctuation is positively related to it, but when inflation is serious, stock price fluctuation changes in the opposite direction. 1998 the deflation that began in the first half of the year kept the stock price falling. Although the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes both hit record highs due to the good news of the stock market in the first half of 1999 and the management's comments on developing the market, deflation has been inhibiting the further rebound of the stock price.
3. International trade balance
When exports exceed imports, international trade has a positive impact on the domestic economy, which makes the stock price rise. On the contrary, the stock price fell. 1998 the southeast Asian financial crisis has greatly reduced the growth of China's foreign trade exports, affected the economic growth of China, and directly had a negative impact on related industries and listed companies in China.
4. Trade payment balance
The balance of payments affects a country's domestic capital supply, which indirectly affects the stock price. The surplus of current account and capital account, a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and the increase of domestic capital supply have expanded the sources of funds available for buying stocks, prompting the stock price to rise.
5. International financial markets
On the one hand, the violent turmoil in the international financial market directly caused the psychological panic of China investors and affected the stock market; on the other hand, it indirectly affected the development of the stock market from both macro and policy aspects.
Second, macroeconomic policy factors.
China stock market is an emerging market, and macroeconomic policy factors play an extremely important role in the stock market.
1. Monetary policy
Monetary policy is divided into tight monetary policy and expansionary monetary policy according to the degree of regulating money supply. When the tight monetary policy is implemented, the money supply decreases and the interest rate rises, which puts downward pressure on the stock price, while the expansionary monetary policy means that the money supply increases and the interest rate falls, which makes the stock price level tend to rise. The specific monetary policy tools of China's central bank mainly include: interest rate, deposit reserve ratio, loan scale control, open market business, exchange rate and so on.
(1) interest rate
The impact of interest rate on the stock market is very direct. Judging from the relationship between seven interest rate cuts and stock price changes, there is a high degree of negative correlation between China's stock market and interest rates, but the role of interest rate changes on stock prices is gradually weakening.
(2) deposit reserve ratio
The central bank's adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio affects the source of funds of commercial banks, adjusts the money supply under the action of the money multiplier, affects the social demand, and then affects the capital supply and stock price of the stock market. For example, on March 2 1 65438, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio from 13% to 8%, which had a substantial impact on the stock market.
(3) Open market business
Open market business is the business that the central bank controls and influences the money supply by buying or selling securities. It is a powerful monetary policy tool of the central bank. Since April 1996, China's central bank has started its open market business. Due to the limited tools available for open market business at this stage, only short-term treasury bonds are used as trading tools, which limits the impact on the stock market. With the deepening of financial system reform, its influence will gradually increase.
2. Fiscal policy
According to the function of fiscal policy on economic operation, fiscal policy can be divided into expansionary fiscal policy and contractive fiscal policy. Fiscal revenue policy and expenditure policy mainly include: national budget, tax, national debt, etc.
(1) National budget
As the government's basic fiscal revenue and expenditure plan, the national budget can fully reflect the scale and balance of the country's financial resources, and it is also a reflection of the comprehensive use of various fiscal policy means. Expanding fiscal expenditure is the main means of expansionary fiscal policy, which often leads to the rise of stock prices. In the past two years, China has implemented a proactive expansionary fiscal policy and intensified infrastructure construction, benefiting listed companies in infrastructure construction and enterprises in related industries to varying degrees.
(2) Taxation
Through tax policy, the profit level of enterprises and the income of residents can be adjusted. Tax reduction will increase residents' income, expand the potential supply of funds in the stock market, reduce the cost burden of listed companies, increase corporate profits, and the stock price tends to rise. If high-tech enterprises in China enjoy preferential income tax relief, the share price should see a glimmer of light. Stamp duty and income tax on securities transactions are the most direct taxes on the stock market. Since the introduction of stamp duty on stock transactions in China, stamp duty has been adjusted according to the actual situation of the stock market, and the stock market has been regulated to stimulate or suppress the stock market.
(3) National debt
As a form of financial fund raising based on the principle of national paid credit, national debt can regulate the supply and demand of funds and the circulation of money. Without inflation, the demand for construction funds will ease, which is conducive to the overall economic improvement and the rise of stock prices. At the same time, the state adopts online issuance to divert funds from the stock market. 1In August 1998, the Ministry of Finance issued10 billion long-term treasury bonds to state-owned commercial banks for infrastructure construction, which was a great benefit to the stock market.
3. Industrial policy
The fluctuation of industry stock price is strongly influenced by the government's industrial policy. The government will encourage the development of a specific industry, which will probably increase the operating conditions and profits of this industry, thus making the stock price of this specific industry rise, otherwise it will fall.
4. Regulatory policies
The management's supervision policy on the stock market has a great influence on the short-term trend of China stock market. The regulatory policy tools mainly include: the management's positioning of the securities market, laws and regulations regulating the behavior of market participants, information disclosure system and public opinion guidance. For example,1At the end of July, 1994, due to the macro-control implemented by the state, the economy contracted and the stock market continued to slump, the CSRC launched three policies to rescue the market, including restricting the listing of new shares and discussing expanding the scope of capital entering the market, which stimulated the Shanghai stock market to reach its highest point after more than two months from 333 1052. 1In May 1995, due to the closure of the treasury bond futures market, the stock market experienced a continuous wave of maturity. 1In June, 1999, the editorial of People's Daily made market participants agree with the policy of 1450, and the Shanghai stock market rushed to the historical high point before the implementation of the Securities Law 1756.
Third, microeconomic factors.
Among the microeconomic factors that affect stock price fluctuation, listed companies are the main factors that determine their own stock prices.
1. Corporate performance and growth Corporate performance reflects the current operating level of the enterprise and the current price of the stock, while corporate growth reflects the future development prospects of the enterprise and determines the long-term trend of the stock price.
(1) Company performance
The company's performance is mainly reflected in the company's financial indicators, and the stock price factors that affect the company's performance mainly include:
As a proof of asset ownership and investment income, each share represents a certain amount of net asset value. Generally speaking, the company's net asset value increases and the stock price rises; The net asset value decreased and the stock price fell.
Profitability: After-tax profit per share represents the company's profitability, and P/E ratio is the ratio of the stock market price to after-tax profit, both of which reflect the company's performance.
What kind of dividend-paying method the dividend-paying company adopts has an important influence on the stock price, which reflects the company's operating ability and development potential.
Stock splitting and capital stock expansion will generally stimulate the stock price to rise. In China's stock market, the expansion of capital stock has a great influence on the fluctuation of stock price, which has always been the subject of speculation in the secondary market.
Companies that increase capital and reduce capital will increase capital and issue new shares due to business needs, which will reduce the net assets per share and lead to a decline in the stock price. But for high-growth companies, capital increase means strengthening the company's strength and bringing more returns, and the stock price may rise.
The increase in turnover shows that the company's sales ability is enhanced, profits are increased, and the stock price is raised.
(2) the growth of the company
The growth and development stage of the industry are the basic conditions for the growth of the company, and the rise and fall of the industry largely determines the development prospects and growth space of listed companies.
Competitive position A company's position in the industry competition is directly related to its survival and the steady growth of profits. The competitive ability and position of an enterprise are determined by the technical level, management level, market development ability and share, capital and scale benefit, and new product development ability. Operating Efficiency The operating efficiency of a company is mainly reflected in whether the production capacity and operating capacity are fully utilized.
2. Asset reorganization and acquisition
In order to realize economies of scale or turn losses into profits, listed companies have made major organizational changes by means of merger and reorganization. Many large and medium-sized state-owned listed companies in China have realized the adjustment and transformation of industrial structure through asset restructuring. At present, the main ways of asset reorganization are asset replacement, high-quality asset injection and non-performing asset stripping. 1998, due to the excavation of the theme of asset restructuring and the extensive speculation of restructured shares, the stock market exploded with a blowout surge. The acquisition of listed companies is the most dynamic phenomenon in the stock market, and the acquisition by placard is often accompanied by a sharp rise in the stock price.
3. Industry
The industry to which listed companies belong has a great influence on the fluctuation of stock prices. From the perspective of industry life cycle, generally in the initial stage, the profit is less, the risk is greater, and the stock price is lower; Profits increased significantly during the cost period, supporting the overall stock price level of the industry to rise. Profits in maturity are relatively stable, and stock prices are stable. Profits in recession generally decline, and stock prices fall. The sunrise industries in China's industrial life cycle mainly include: electronic information industry (computer and software, communication), high-tech (new materials, new energy, environmental protection, marine engineering, new building materials, photoelectric integration) biomedical engineering, etc.
Fourth, market factors.
The market is an environment that reflects the relationship between supply and demand of stocks, and makes the relationship between supply and demand intersect, and finally forms the conditions for stock prices. Therefore, the relationship between supply and demand in the market, the composition of market investors, the overall price fluctuation of the market, trading systems and tools, and market psychological factors will all affect the stock price.
1. Market supply and demand
The relationship between supply and demand in the stock market determines the short-term trend of stock prices. As a nascent market in China, the stock price is mainly determined by the supply and demand of the stock market itself, that is, by the total amount of stocks and the total amount of stock funds. Announcing the scale of IPO listing and mastering the pace of listing have become an important means for management to adjust the relationship between supply and demand in the secondary market and affect the overall level of stock price. For example, before 1996, the listing of new shares has always been the main factor restricting the rise and fall of stock prices. In the case of a certain stock supply, the total amount of funds in the stock market plays a leading role in the formation of prices, while the total amount of funds in the China stock market has a decisive impact on price fluctuations, and there is a positive correlation between them.
2. The composition of market investors
Investors in China stock market include individual investors and institutional investors. The capital structure of individual investors and institutional investors, the professional background, education level and monthly income composition of stock investors will all have an impact on stock price fluctuations.
3. Overall market price fluctuation
The influence of the overall price fluctuation of the stock market on a specific stock refers to the correlation between the specific stock price and the stock market. The price fluctuation of China stock market is characterized by small risk difference among individual stocks, and the overall market risk is dominant. The market influence of individual stock prices accounts for more than 50% of the stock price change factors.
4. Trading systems and tools
Because China's stock market started late, we can choose the trading system according to the historical experience of foreign stock market development, and we can directly adopt the most advanced trading and communication technology. The trading system of continuous bidding and computer matching did not increase the fluctuation range of stock price, while the invisible seat system accelerated the trading speed and reduced the stock price disturbance.
5. Market manipulation
Market manipulators are mainly powerful large institutions. They control the direction and degree of stock ups and downs, and even jointly manipulate the trend of the plate to influence the trend of the broader market, so that the stock price is too high or too low, and get extra income from it.
6. Market psychological expectation
The psychological factor of investors is an important factor in buying and selling stocks. The psychological expectations of many investors influence each other, forming market psychological expectations, which have a strong impact on the stock price trend.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) is not an economic factor.
As far as the stock market is concerned, non-economic factors in the general sense mainly refer to natural disasters, wars and political changes. Once these events happen, it will affect the fluctuation of stock prices. This influence has two characteristics: first, it is temporary; Secondly, it is achieved indirectly through its influence on the overall economy.
1. Natural disasters
The impact of natural disasters on stock prices comes from the damage of disasters to physical assets. When a disaster occurs, production is affected and the stock price falls. On the other hand, post-disaster reconstruction will stimulate the expansion of production and the stock prices of related industries will rise to a certain extent.
2. War
During the war, social productive forces were severely damaged, and all economic activities were carried out around the war, which had a great impact on the stock market.
3. Changes in the political situation
The changing factors of the political situation include: the change of leaders of major countries, the change of governments, and major international political activities. For example, the tension between Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province has had a psychological impact on stock market investors.