First of all, let's take a look at the fluctuation of this round of pig prices: it can be traced back to the middle of 10. With the second round of pork storage and storage boosting the market, the sharp drop in pork prices stimulated consumption growth, and enterprises such as superimposed slaughterhouses used the opportunity to consume frozen goods stocks, leading to an increase in pig prices. On the other hand, the pig production capacity is high, and the increase is obviously limited. After several "shocks", pig prices are still hovering in 8 yuan. After entering 1 1 month, two changes have taken place in the market, which is worthy of attention.

One or two changes

The first change is that the time of shock is getting shorter and shorter. In the past, the fluctuation period of pig price was about three or four days, but after entering 1 1, the fluctuation period was obviously shortened, and many pig prices turned around and fell after only one day of increase, or fell for only one day and then rose again. But the law of the market is that it is difficult to maintain a state for a long time without obvious influencing factors. Therefore, the shock time is getting shorter and shorter, which means that the shock is coming to an end.

The second change is the intensification of market games. On the one hand, with the rise of pig prices, farmers' price sentiment is getting stronger and stronger. The surge in pork consumption boosted demand. On the other hand, slaughter enterprises began to control costs and keep prices down to collect pigs, so the current market is characterized by high prices and reluctance to sell, which leads to an increase in pig prices and a decrease in pig prices.

However, in the month of 1 1, how long can the pig price fluctuate?

Second, the positive and negative of 1 1 month

I won't go into details about the high productivity of live pigs and the large number of fertile sows, because this is fundamental. This paper mainly analyzes the specific influencing factors and changes of the live pig market in June165438+1October.

First of all, there are two positive factors:

First, the weather changes. The weather is a double-edged sword, sometimes beneficial to the market, sometimes disrupting the rhythm of the market. According to the latest weather forecast, 165438+ 10 will usher in "all-round" cold air, which will cause a sharp drop in temperature throughout the country. This has two effects on the pig market: first, the cold weather itself is conducive to the consumption of meat. Secondly, according to the forecast, with the arrival of this cold wave, snow will come in the north and rainy weather will come in the south. This will have a certain impact on pig transportation, which may aggravate the shortage of local supply.

Second, there is still a certain increase in consumption. Although with the rise of pork prices, consumption shows signs of slowing down. However, the recent notice of the Ministry of Commerce to encourage citizens to store some necessities of life has also caused many citizens to start hoarding rice, noodles and meat. Although we are told not to over-interpret it, it is expected that it will bring some growth to pork consumption.

As the saying goes, when there are good things to rely on, there are two hidden dangers to be wary of:

First, the slaughter volume may increase. As we all know, large-scale pig farms have slaughter indicators such as annual tasks and quarterly tasks. Although it is unknown when the specific scale market will increase in volume, once the scale market increases in volume, the supply of pork in the market will increase significantly, thus breaking the current rhythm of property hoarding and price increase.

Second, the willingness of slaughter enterprises to reduce prices has increased. When the pig price rises in June 5438+ 10, the willingness of slaughter enterprises to lower prices decreases, mainly because of selling frozen goods stocks. When the frozen goods stocks are almost consumed, the sentiment of lowering prices will inevitably rise.

Third, the pig price 1 1 How to get there?

Combined with the positive and negative of 5438+0 1 in June, the increase of pork consumption may show a certain lag, and it will take some time to react to the front end. However, the target task of the scale field is generally not arranged at the beginning of the month, and the frozen product inventory is still being digested. It is expected that the negative factors will be difficult to exert their strength in the first half of the month. Therefore, the pig price in June 5438+065438+ 10 is still mainly fluctuating, but it may change in the second half of the year or at the end of the month. Therefore, farmers need to pay attention to the rhythm of pressing the fence.