Each city has different market demand, market supply, market supply and demand and housing price deviations in real estate, so the risks of the real estate market in each city are different. This article analyzes the "2016 China's 35 Cities Real Estate Short-Cycle Risk Identification System" report to obtain the risk levels of real estate investment in different cities in the next year (from the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017). Friends who want to buy a house need to be aware that buying a house in the six cities of Hohhot, Haikou, Taiyuan, Lanzhou, Changchun and Tianjin is very risky.

How to analyze the risk of buying a house in a city?

Buyers can make judgments from four aspects: market demand, market supply, market supply and demand and housing price deviation. Let’s take a look at them separately:

1. Market demand

2. Market supply

Market supply mainly comes from the scale and changes of the city’s commercial housing inventory (spot goods) ), the scale and change of land area purchased by enterprises (futures), the scale and change of commercial housing land transactions (futures), the scale and change of new housing construction area (quasi-futures) and other factors, conduct a comparative study on the future housing supply in each city. The higher the score in a city, the greater the market supply pressure and the greater the risk of enterprise entry.

3. Market supply and demand

Indicators such as the supply and demand relationship of commercial housing, the spot inventory-to-sales ratio of commercial housing, and the ratio of futures inventory-to-sales of commercial housing can reflect the market supply and demand situation in a city. If the market supply and demand score of a city is higher, the market supply and demand relationship will be more unbalanced, the oversupply will be more obvious, the pressure will be greater, and the risk of this type of city will be higher; on the contrary, the market will be in short supply, the supply and demand pressure will be small, and the property market performance will be higher. Stronger, this type of city has less risk, or greater opportunity.

4. Deviation of house prices

The law of value is the basic law of the commodity economy, and the fluctuation of prices around value is the manifestation of the law of value. A similar pattern exists for asset prices: they always fluctuate. After rising, they often fall back; the greater the rise, the greater the fall. The greater the deviation in housing prices in a city, the higher the score and the greater the market risk. On the contrary, the risk is smaller.

In the future, buying a house in these cities will be more risky!

Based on the four first-level indicators of market demand, market supply, market supply and demand, and housing price deviation, the Real Estate Research Institute can assign weights through data standardization and the Delphi method, and finally obtain the real estate prices of 35 cities in 2016. Short-cycle risk comprehensive indicator score.

Cities with higher scores indicate that the market in 2016 is weak, the driving force for housing price rebound is weak, and the risk of real estate companies or individual investment is relatively high and the opportunity is relatively small. On the contrary, cities with lower scores have relatively smaller risks in 2016, stronger driving force for housing price rebound, and lower risks for real estate companies or individual investments, or greater opportunities. Finally, we came to the conclusion as shown below:

①The number of housing and population in Hohhot determines the risks of buying a house now.

③ The speed of upgrading in Taiyuan City is not ideal, and the economic structure adjustment is not timely, which leads to the risk of buying a house. Friends who want to buy a house can slow down first.

④Lanzhou City is the geometric center of China's land territory. It is the headquarters of the Lanzhou Military Region of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the headquarters of the Lanzhou Railway Bureau, one of China's 18 railway bureaus. Similarly, cities that are also on the list of risky cities for home purchase due to economic structure issues.

⑤Changchun is an international metropolis in Northeast Asia, the largest automobile industry city in China, the ninth largest city in China in terms of built-up area and population, and the second largest city in Northeast China. However, the industrial structure in Northeast China has always been a big problem, and it is not recommended to buy a house now.

⑥Tianjin is saturated with housing and it is not recommended to buy a house.

(The above answer was published on 2016-12-14, please refer to the actual current relevant home purchase policies)

Click to view more comprehensive, timely and accurate new home information

p>